April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Steblow]

Lake breeze yesterday didn't have any power here until about 6pm here. Warmth actually resurged in the early morning hours and hit 65°. Lawn looks a whole lot better now... no longer brown/yellowish.

 

Now though it is cooling off as the stratiform rain approaches from the southwest. 

 

 furnace kicking in kicking a** lake breeze now...

[Steblow]

EURO says it stays mild for the most part after Tuesday. Widespread 50s and 60s through the 21st and then more 60s, and 70s for Days 9 and 10. Even some 80s and low 90s for Earth Day in the Plains.

 

sounds perfect inland.

[Geos]

sounds perfect inland.

 

Warmth should extend to the lake front several times. 

 

Noticed leaves starting to form on my Birch trees today. 

 

Edit: Warm sector making a final push northward. S winds gusting pretty good out in the Fox Valley.

[Money]

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

USED MAINLY A CONSENSUS APPROACH FOR THE THURSDAY-SUNDAY
FORECAST...DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN STORM
TRACK...TEMPERATURES...AND RESULTANT PRECIP TYPE. THE UNCERTAINTY
CAN BE SUMMARIZED BY THE FACT THAT YESTERDAY THE GFS HAS SNOW
ACCUMS WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS MILDER AND MAINLY DRY.
NOW THE GFS IS MILDER WITH RAIN CHANCES...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
COLDER WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS. ADDITIONALLY MODELS WERE
SHOWING MILDER BY THE WEEKEND...BUT HAVE NOW TURNED COLDER.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

OVERALL...MODELS DO AGREE SOMEWHAT ON NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH.

[gosaints]

Looks like another big snow producer before I head to Hayward this weekend. 

[Geos]

Local mets going with seasonable temps after tomorrow. Probably below normal Friday if that cut off low cuts across the wrong way.

[gosaints]

more cold rain anywhere south a say MSP to green bay seems to be the only threat

[East Dubzz]

Today and tomorrow look especially terrible for this week. Bring back and warm and sunny weather!

[Tom]

@ theweatherman, it will be nearly 48 hours later since saying that "snow" is done for the season.  That was a rather bold call and today snow will be falling from the sky.  The warm weather may have hampered your thinking on Saturday putting you in summer mode!

[Geos]

more cold rain anywhere south a say MSP to green bay seems to be the only threat

 

GFS weakened that low now. Widespread 1"+ amounts are gone. Probably the best since areas south of you got so much rain this weekend.

[Money]

4-6 from SW WI to GB now with that storm. Love how Geos didnt mention that!

[Geos]

4-6 from SW WI to GB now with that storm. Love how Geos didnt mention that!

 

That's because the soundings look crappy. Hardly worth mentioning when the 5000 ft temps are riding the 0°C line for most of the event. 

[Money]

The soundings look fine. You seriously grasping for straws again. 

 

Parts of Central WI got 4 inches that accumulated on roads/surfaces etc yet you said that wouldn't happen. 

[Money]

140418/0300Z 87 05007KT 32.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
140418/0600Z 90 04008KT 30.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 90| 10| 0
140418/0900Z 93 04008KT 28.7F SNOW 11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 11:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0
140418/1200Z 96 04008KT 26.9F SNOW 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115 11:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140418/1500Z 99 04008KT 29.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.066 11:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.31 100| 0| 0
140418/1800Z 102 03009KT 31.0F SNPL 6:1| 0.7|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.113 9:1| 4.0|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.42 67| 33| 0
140418/2100Z 105 02007KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.162 11:1| 6.2|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0
140419/0000Z 108 02008KT 32.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 11:1| 7.1|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.67 100| 0| 0

 

Bufkit for OSH. Temps in the upper 20's for most of the event. Mostly early morning etc. 

[tim the weatherman]

been looking at the gfs metograms that the snow chance decreases after this weekend for the midwest.

[james1976]

been looking at the gfs metograms that the snow chance decreases after this weekend for the midwest.

LOL

[BrianJK]

been looking at the gfs metograms that the snow chance decreases after this weekend for the midwest.

 

how about for May and June?

[gosaints]

EURO says what snow...... unless you live in the northwoods that is

[Geos]

The soundings look fine. You seriously grasping for straws again. 

 

Parts of Central WI got 4 inches that accumulated on roads/surfaces etc yet you said that wouldn't happen. 

 

GFS soundings in the heart of the band near LSE are poor. Poor DGZ depth.

Those instantwxmaps have a high ratio bias this time of year.

 

Near 102 hours is the only time the entire column is < 0°C.

 

[Madtown]

Seems the MKE and Green Bay are hinting that Thurs night Fri could produce some decent snows. Last night we picked up close to 2". At 5am it looked like and all out snowstorm. 3 miles east of here nothing on the ground.

[Money]

18z GFS trolling Geos with 6-8 for his area on Thurs/Fri

[Geos]

18z GFS trolling Geos with 6-8 for his area on Thurs/Fri

 

That's funny!

No met is biting on that solution. In fact there calling for mid 50s for both days. Actually Skilling going for 62° at Thursday.

[East Dubzz]

Topped out at 34 today. What month is it again?

[Money]

MKE bufkit

 

140418/0600Z 84 03016KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140418/0900Z 87 03017KT 29.9F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.030 0:1| 0.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.07 8| 92| 0
140418/1200Z 90 03018KT 28.7F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.119 10:1| 1.2|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0
140418/1500Z 93 03018KT 29.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.093 10:1| 2.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0
140418/1800Z 96 03019KT 29.7F SNOW 15:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.108 11:1| 3.6|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140418/2100Z 99 02018KT 29.7F SNOW 12:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.194 12:1| 6.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.59 100| 0| 0
140419/0000Z 102 01017KT 30.3F SNOW 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 12:1| 7.6|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.72 100| 0| 0
140419/0300Z 105 01018KT 30.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 11:1| 8.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.77 100| 0| 0
140419/0600Z 108 01017KT 30.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 8.0|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.77 0| 0| 0

 

8.0 SN with temps in the upper 20's lol

[Money]

That's funny!

No met is biting on that solution. In fact there calling for mid 50s for both days. Actually Skilling going for 62° at Thursday.

 

MKE AFD

 

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

 

THE 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ALL SWING A RATHER SHARP

SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AND BRINGS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION

INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 AND THICKNESS VALUES WOULD INDICATE

SNOW. HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL.

[East Dubzz]

[East Dubzz]

And now Geos sit backs and thinks of a clever response...

 

[gosaints]

Funny how money doesn't bold the boundary layer part ..... money was riding the srefs dropping 4.69 inches in LA crosse last night. Got an inch. And the dgex really??

[Geos]

MKE AFD

 

.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

 

THE 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ALL SWING A RATHER SHARP

SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY AND BRINGS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION

INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 AND THICKNESS VALUES WOULD INDICATE

SNOW. HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL.

 

There no support for it other than the GFS. I have 37° and rain in the forecast. No meteorologist locally hasn't even mentioned the S word after tonight.

It's a poor setup with the cut off nature of that system.

 

I can hardly jump on board given that and with it being that 17 or 18th of April!

[gosaints]

There no support for it other than the GFS. I have 37° and rain in the forecast. No meteorologist locally hasn't even mentioned the S word after tonight.

It's a poor setup with the cut off nature of that system.

 

I can hardly jump on board given that and with it being that 17 or 18th of April!

Ya he posts whatever models shows what he wants. He has been dodged by many storms this year. I digress

[Money]

Ya he posts whatever models shows what he wants. He has been dodged by many storms this year. I digress

 

LOL!

 

Not even worth responding to. 

[Money]

How many times did you guys say it can't snow in April and it won't accumulate etc. 

 

Geos said it can't accumulate on surfaces and theweatherman said it cant snow because it was nice outside etc

[East Dubzz]

Screw your snow man, the worse part is that my GIFs were a failure :(

[Geos]

How many times did you guys say it can't snow in April and it won't accumulate etc. 

 

Geos said it can't accumulate on surfaces and theweatherman said it cant snow because it was nice outside etc

 

I said it wouldn't accumulate on the pavement in areas where it was in the 60s and 70s this past weekend.

 

---

 

18z GFS was a fluke run. 0z NAM is mild and rainy for Thursday night.

[Geos]

Screw your snow man, the worse part is that my GIFs were a failure

 

That cat one was great!

And Tom Hanks is awesome!

[tim the weatherman]

I said it wouldn't accumulate on the pavement in areas where it was in the 60s and 70s this past weekend.

 

---

 

18z GFS was a fluke run. 0z NAM is mild and rainy for Thursday night.

this bout of snow won't stick around because the temps for the rest of the week will be mild by my local mets and by twc and accuweather.

[Money]

lol no one said it would stick around but geos said it wouldn't accumulate on surface areas which was completely false. 

[Money]

I said it wouldn't accumulate on the pavement in areas where it was in the 60s and 70s this past weekend.

 

---

 

18z GFS was a fluke run. 0z NAM is mild and rainy for Thursday night.

 

You are going by the 0z NAM at HR 84? Really? The full storm isnt even passed yet. 

[tim the weatherman]

I said it wouldn't accumulate on the pavement in areas where it was in the 60s and 70s this past weekend.

 

---

 

18z GFS was a fluke run. 0z NAM is mild and rainy for Thursday night.

your forecast geos said you have rain in it by the nws and looked to the north of you and they have a mix of rain and snow towards green bay there is winter storm watches to the north of you too geos towards the up of michigan.

[Geos]

lol no one said it would stick around but geos said it wouldn't accumulate on surface areas which was completely false. 

 

I said it wouldn't stick on any surfaces under light returns with marginal temps. Radar returns had to go above 20 dbz today for it to start sticking and after 4:30pm.