April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Jaycee]

Oh the Great Lakes forum lol... everyday it's:

 

Money: Wrong. Geos you clearly stated there'd be no snow accumulation and you got 1" of snow. Here you go pulling pins and needles again. 

 

Geos: 12z NAM keeps snow out west and a cool rain for most of us on this forum.

 

the24weatherman: I agree Geos my grass is green its so nice out the snow is melting no more snow NWS says severe weather likely

 

Money: Lol

 

Geos: I never said it couldn't accumulate, just wouldn't accumulate much due to warm surface temperatures. You stated that most areas would get 5"+

 

Money: Where did I ever say that?? Can someone show me please? You clearly stated that there would be no accumulation although models indicated it and most areas in Wisconsin picked up 2-3", never did I ever say areas would get 5". Man you are off today.

 

 

Gotta love it man

[Geos]

your forecast geos said you have rain in itby the nws.

 

Everything is pointing to rain, and actually Skilling mentioned t-storms that night.

 

Even the usual cold GEM is showing rain.

[Geos]

Oh the Great Lakes forum lol... everyday it's:

 

Money: Wrong. Geos you clearly stated there'd be no snow accumulation and you got 1" of snow. Here you go pulling pins and needles again. 

 

Geos: 12z NAM keeps snow out west and a cool rain for most of us on this forum.

 

the24weatherman: I agree Geos my grass is green its so nice out the snow is melting no more snow NWS says severe weather likely

 

Money: Lol

 

Geos: I never said it couldn't accumulate, just wouldn't accumulate much due to warm surface temperatures. You stated that most areas would get 5"+

 

Money: Where did I ever say that?? Can someone show me please? You clearly stated that there would be no accumulation although models indicated it and most areas in Wisconsin picked up 2-3", never did I ever say areas would get 5". Man you are off today.

 

 

Gotta love it man

 

That was only in reference to the first wave that passed early this morning. Not that one that is passing by right now. And the NAM never showed snow here until after the last 0z run. It was keeping this area in the dry slot.

[Money]

Skilling is Chicago based which is looking like a cold rain for them.

 

MKE/GB AFD said snow is possible Thu/Fri 

[Jaycee]

That was only in reference to the first wave that passed early this morning. Not that one that is passing by right now. And the NAM never showed snow here until after the last 0z run. It was keeping this area in the dry slot.

Haha oh I totally just threw that in there lol, wasn't making a credible reference there. Geos you and Tom have been my favorite on this forum since 'nam, so I got your back man. Money you have legit arguments but everyone has their bias, who cares if Geos doesn't want snow??? No need to call everyone out on it just because they don't want it and you do.

[Money]

I don't care if he doesn't want snow, he just goes on everytime someone mentions that it MIGHT snow and comes up with some b.s. reason why it won't happen, and he's been wrong plenty this winter by doing that.

[Money]

0z GFS is farther south with the snowband this run and shows 3-5 towards the northern suburbs of Chicago and N. IL 

[Geos]

I don't care if he doesn't want snow, he just goes on everytime someone mentions that it MIGHT snow and comes up with some b.s. reason why it won't happen, and he's been wrong plenty this winter by doing that.

 

I've only cut down the big, unrealistic amounts that the maps show 120+ hours out! 

 

---

 

LOT not impressed with the Thursday night system.

 

 

A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT

DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOCAL AREA DRY

WEDNESDAY BUT THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY

POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME PRECIP. THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER OR NEAR

THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND A SECOND UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST

AND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP

THURSDAY EVENING NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE

AREA SOME TIME FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES. PROVIDED THE

BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATE ENOUGH THURSDAY HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE

60S...WITH FRIDAY BEING COOLER BUT ALSO SEEING A LARGER RANGE OF

TEMPS THANKS TO THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S

SOUTH.

 

[Money]

Again, not talking about LOT. Outside of the 0z GFS, no model showed snow in the Chicago/N.IL area.

[tim the weatherman]

I've only cut down the big, unrealistic amounts that the maps show 120+ hours out! 

 

---

 

LOT not impressed with the Thursday night system.

the what money needs to do is leave you and rest of us alone and he can think to make arguements because he looks at models that only shows snow that don't look for rain and people that goes to this fourm is getting sick of hearing about snow.

[Money]

Wait, arent you the one who said it can't snow because it was nice outside? 

[Geos]

Even with the 0z EURO and 6z NAM run. There continues to a consensus that it's all rain this week. GFS definitely the outlier and I'd toss it.

 

---

 

Got down to 22° this morning. Temp rising quickly as the sun rises higher into the sky.

[gosaints]

GEOS 6z GFS even is pretty lame.  Liking the look of the long range.

[Sciascia]

I think I have something that everyone (Money, Geos, Weatherman, Gosaints) can agree on:

 

ORD got robbed of #2 all time (only 0.3" away after 1.4" last night) because of bad measurements during the NYE 12"+ storm and the other 12"+ that happened 3 days later.

[Madtown]

This forum has gone to crap. Used to be a somewhat well rounded discussion about potentials, whether it be rain, snow, cold, wind, whatever. It can snow in April after 60 degree days. I have had snow on the ground for my birthday....May 11. Temps are always marginal this time of year....it is spring after all. If you rooting for snow great, if you want rain great, if you want 75 degree days great, but we're going to get what we get. Thank you, that is all.

[Sciascia]

This forum has gone to crap. Used to be a somewhat well rounded discussion about potentials, whether it be rain, snow, cold, wind, whatever. It can snow in April after 60 degree days. I have had snow on the ground for my birthday....May 11. Temps are always marginal this time of year....it is spring after all. If you rooting for snow great, if you want rain great, if you want 75 degree days great, but we're going to get what we get. Thank you, that is all.

I agree.

[Tom]

ORD is 0.3" from tying #2, so close, yet so far...medium/long range is not looking like we will hit #2 (big maybe late this week).  This may be the last snows of the year unless something quirky happens in May like it did last year in IA/WI.  It's too bad ORD's measurements for the snow storms that hit the 1st week of January were way off, otherwise we would have been comfortably in the #2 spot.  Let's see if we make a run for #1 next year! 

[Tom]

Looks like the models are coming into an agreement on a sustained warming trend next week.  GGEM/GFS/EURO showing some true Spring time warmth surging into the region.  Finally!

[tim the weatherman]

looks like that we will have some warmth finally for the area so that means that our snows coming to and end hopefully.

[james1976]

im bummed Waterloo is only 1.5" from their all-time record. still wish it could happen. but dang, im loving the thought of warm temps and storms!

[tim the weatherman]

looks good from noaa that this does match tom's post made today about the gfs ggem and the euro agreement.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[Geos]

Yeah I think that was the last gasp of winter weather now. It is a real ashame that the crew at ORD didn't know how to properly measure snow! Chicago did make a new #2 - I'm certain of that. But will never exactly know how much. 

 

From the nearest co-op site just west of the airport, between the 31st -3rd the snowfall laid out like this: 

31st: 0.5", 1st: 3.7", 2nd: 9.1", 3rd: 3.3"

Total: 16.6"

[clintbeed1993]

Yeah I think that was the last gasp of winter weather now. It is a real ashame that the crew at ORD didn't know how to properly measure snow! Chicago did make a new #2 - I'm certain of that. But will never exactly know how much. 

 

 

On the bright side, this warmth that will be building should help to kick off severe weather season!  Who else is ready to start storm chasing again?  I'm getting the itch pretty bad!

[MKEstorm]

I think I have something that everyone (Money, Geos, Weatherman, Gosaints) can agree on:

 

ORD got robbed of #2 all time (only 0.3" away after 1.4" last night) because of bad measurements during the NYE 12"+ storm and the other 12"+ that happened 3 days later.

 

How come every time ORD comes short of some kind of near record or record snow, the Chicago posters always say it was measured too low! This is not the only weather forum I've seen this. It's like always blaming the ref because your team lost the game!

[Tom]

Simple answer, neighboring towns of Elk Grove/Arlington Hts/Des Plaines all had 17-18" for the Jan 4-5th storm when ORD measure 12".

[MKEstorm]

Simple answer, neighboring towns of Elk Grove/Arlington Hts/Des Plaines all had 17-18" for the Jan 4-5th storm when ORD measure 12".

 

Those places are all north and northwest of ORD...maybe locally they did have more snow. It happens.

[Geos]

Simple answer, neighboring towns of Elk Grove/Arlington Hts/Des Plaines all had 17-18" for the Jan 4-5th storm when ORD measure 12".

 

Yeah it was obviously bad measuring. There was no question about it.

 

Wow, only 34° for a high today. 95% of the snow is gone though.

[Tom]

Looking ahead into May, both Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 are showing above normal temps region wide.  This might be the pattern change a lot of us have been waiting for.

[Geos]

If we're actually going to flip to warmer than normal next week, then the month will easily be above normal.

 

Departures for the first 14 days of April.

 

[tim the weatherman]

Looking ahead into May, both Euro Weeklies and CFSv2 are showing above normal temps region wide.  This might be the pattern change a lot of us have been waiting for.

like you said tom that we have a low in the gulf of alaska by a +epo, possible a +wpo, a +ao and by a +nao.

[Money]

What.

[Sciascia]

How come every time ORD comes short of some kind of near record or record snow, the Chicago posters always say it was measured too low! This is not the only weather forum I've seen this. It's like always blaming the ref because your team lost the game!

Pretty sure there was a report 3-4 blocks away from the airport that had 15 inches. There's even a LOT met (who wasn't working that night) that says there was an error in measurement.

[Geos]

Pretty sure there was a report 3-4 blocks away from the airport that had 15 inches. There's even a LOT met (who wasn't working that night) that says there was an error in measurement.

 

He should have measured it himself/herself!

 

Anyway. Low of 29° this morning. Looks to be mostly sunny today.

[Hawkeye]

It looks like our brief dip into the upper 20s last night may have been the last freeze of the season.  The mild pattern beginning this weekend will allow the trees to really put out some growth.

[clintbeed1993]

Man the models are bringing in a VERY wet pattern for the next 2 weeks of April.  We could really use that in Nebraska!  Hoping the numbers pan out!  Maybe even a severe weather outbreak!!!

[Sciascia]

He should have measured it himself/herself!

 

Anyway. Low of 29° this morning. Looks to be mostly sunny today.

You should tell RC yourself; you know where he posts lol.

[Tom]

A few days in the 70's and possible 80's late next week are certainly on the table Chicago!  GGEM/EURO not to bullish on 80's, but 70's will feel good enough for a few days.

 

 

Thought I'd post the latest Brazilian temp forecast from JB that should be used as a general idea for next Fall...showing an early freeze in October!  In line with the CFSv2/JMA.

[Tom]

Noticed the 00z Euro has both a -NAO/-AO around the 24th and staying there thru end of month.  Might hinder any sustained warm up through the end of the month.  Heck, any 3-5 day period in the 60's/70's is better than 40's/50's and rain.

[Tom]

Quite the Spring time snow storm taking place in the Northwoods.  How is it going up there th_snow???  Sustained winds of 20-25mph with snow falling must be pretty nice!  Forecast calling for 8-16" of fresh powder.

[Tom]

Nice....