April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Following up on the EURO:

Upon closer inspection the 850mb temps are too warm (for NE IL and extreme SE WI) up until between 108-114hr. By the time the mid levels get cold enough at 114 its the middle of the day and the surface is above freezing.

 

EURO puts up to 2-3" of moisture in N IL, S WI, and extreme eastern Iowa south of US 20.

[gosaints]

Models up and down like a yoyo with this thing.  GFS back to swing and a miss

[Geos]

Models up and down like a yoyo with this thing.  GFS back to swing and a miss

 

Back to a complete miss here. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041012&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

 

Shows almost 2.5" of rain here though!

 

[gosaints]

Canadian says you better build an arc

[Geos]

Canadian says you better build an arc

 

Yeah that's pretty wet around here.

 

[Meichel]

Never thought I'd say this, but, please no more snow. Need work done on the plow and truck I'd like to put off til fall! That much rain wouldn't be any fun either.

 

Overcast and 63º here with light NW winds.

[gosaints]

EURO not looking to promising

[gosaints]

EURO still has a little snow but the trend is definetly away from it this afternoon.  Temps at least get to 40 next Monday and Tuesday and back to the upper 50s by thursday.  Have had much worse in april around here

[Geos]

The window for accumulating snow on the EURO is very narrow, so I wouldn't get too worried about having to plow Meichel. It starts warming above freezing as soon as the daylight starts. 

[Meichel]

Hey Geos, I noticed with the new boards that the Flash version of the Weather Underground stickers are allowed. Link to my PWS weather page on mouse-over as well. Good stuff!

[gosaints]

Surprised money has not been around today

[Money]

sup

[jlp]

Never thought I'd say this, but, please no more snow. Need work done on the plow and truck I'd like to put off til fall! That much rain wouldn't be any fun either.

 

Overcast and 63º here with light NW winds.

Same here, trucks took a beating this year! Im ready for spring / summer.

[tim the weatherman]

Back to a complete miss here. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014041012&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=108

 

Shows almost 2.5" of rain here though!

 

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/04/10/12/GFS_3_2014041012_F96_PCPIN_96_HR.png

i also was looking geos that between chicago and the stateline going to get 3 inches of rain.

[Tom]

I'm afraid that after the brief warm up late next week, into about the last week of April, a below normal temp regime is in the cards.  CFSv2 has been insisting for days now that blocking develops towards the last week of April into May.  -NAO/-AO and +PNA would suggest a trough in eastern CONUS.

[gosaints]

Ha well at least we don't have to listen to talk of ridic cold and feet of snow

[tim the weatherman]

I'm afraid that after the brief warm up late next week, into about the last week of April, a below normal temp regime is in the cards.  CFSv2 has been insisting for days now that blocking develops towards the last week of April into May.  -NAO/-AO and +PNA would suggest a trough in eastern CONUS.

this is nuts how can you say that we will have a -nao/-ao and+pna heading towards the end of the month by this model is saying that i heard that the stratosphere is going thru it's final warming that the polar vortex is collapsing and geos has said on this fourm that the reminant piece of the polar vortex is moving towards siberia.

[gosaints]

You are worse than geos.

 

Makes this board unreadable

You are the joke. Its absolutely true the ridic cold and feet of snow you guys were pimping in April never came to fruition. Next weeks storm looks like crap and you know it. You posting unrealistic snow amounts is way worse. Even where the last storm did dump snow didn't reach levels that toy talkes about due to bad thermals that you routinely ignore.

[Tom]

@ theweatherman, you can still have below normal temps without the Polar Vortex buddy.  I'm not sure why you are caught up so much about the PV talk.  Who said you need the PV in order to get cooler temps???  Hmmm, maybe you should chillax about referencing the PV and focus on other aspects that determine cooler temps because we are in fact in Spring and the PV does retreat into the Arctic.

[gosaints]

I struggle reading weather24 posts as much as anyone but some of you on this board model hug and pimp your own uneducated thoughts as much as him. I'm out good luck chasing your next snow storm that won't happen...

[Money]

You are the joke. Its absolutely true the ridic cold and feet of snow you guys were pimping in April never came to fruition. Next weeks storm looks like crap and you know it. You posting unrealistic snow amounts is way worse. Even where the last storm did dump snow didn't reach levels that toy talkes about due to bad thermals that you routinely ignore.

 

Please show me the post where I said we were getting feet of snow? I was showing what the GFS run had. Nothing more, nothing less.

[gosaints]

Moneyman 2.0

[gosaints]

Money and tom for the most part post only the runs with what they want to see

[Geos]

Money the comments are getting old! Please stop.

 

---

 

The polar vortex completely disappears in the spring. It retreats, but it dies only to reform again in October usually.

 

Blocking is not a big deal as we get deeper into spring, so I would not broad brush all and blame any below normal temperatures on that.

 

I don't know about the end of the month, but the teleconnections support a bounce back to seasonable temperatures after Tuesday next week.

[Money]

gosaints started it, but alright. 

[Tom]

@ GoSaints, I did post some above normal temp maps the CFSv2 was indicating for the following week into about the 24th.  So I don't necessarily post what I want to see, in fact, I do post what I DO believe will happen.  Having said that, expect a bounce back in temps after early next week's cool down.  Last week of April looks like the below normal pattern sets in and fits with the LRC alongside the overall pattern we have been stuck in since late Fall.  Does anyone remember the pattern from the Fall of 2011 into 2012???  It was a consistent above normal pattern that didn't break whatsoever.  I expect that the overall below normal temp regime to continue with bouts of temp spikes in between cool shots.

[gosaints]

Gotcha tom the LRC is a bunch of junk

[Tom]

Suit yourself buddy...so when next Fall comes around we'll see what the overall weather pattern has been like for this Spring/Summer before the new pattern sets up in early October.  Enjoy your Summer.

[gosaints]

Temp spikes with cool shots. Sounds like spring

[gosaints]

Suit yourself buddy...so when next Fall comes around we'll see what the overall weather pattern has been like for this Spring/Summer before the new pattern sets up in early October.  Enjoy your Summer.

you got it tom. Will enjoy my summer without you posting ever ying crazy weather bell snow map that have no chance of materializing. A fifth grader wrote the algorithms for those things

[gosaints]

Tom you use overall weather patterns to predict individual storms. Its a joke

[Tom]

Let me get this right, so you live near La Crosse, WI, probably without a Mathematics Degree, more than likely you hate Math, but you still have the balls to mock an educated Meteorologist, in fact, who has a Doctorates Degree, who more than likely has a higher degree of education than you, who works for a reputable firm that was started from the ground up and has achieved more than you in your lifetime. 

 

I'd say that Dr. Ryan Maue, who wrote these algorithms, did a far better job than what you would have programmed.  Enough said.

[Tom]

One last thing, I do recall you mentioning that this next system would be a Minneapolis Special, right????  More than likely its going to be a Lakes Cutter.

[Money]

He's a ******* joke. He's the most negative poster on here when it comes to snow even during the winter time. 

[Money]

NAM with 8+ of snow in N. WI

[gosaints]

Lol I said if it were going to be a big snow producer it would be a msp special. And the weather bell snow algorithms do suck if you don't believe that you are drinking cool aid.

 

I am not a math major so you got that right. Settled for biomedical engineering in your city at a college known as NU. Then worked at the hospital for multiple years if you had to know. Later got a teaching degree and teach middle school math and science while consulting with my original degree. My middle school earth science students can see that weather bell snow maps should not be shown to the general public

[Money]

SREF Plumes generally 2-4 area wide from MKE to GB to Geos area. 

[gosaints]

NAM with 8+ of snow in N. WI

The northwoods?

[gosaints]

SREF Plumes generally 2-4 area wide from MKE to GB to Geos area.

2 to 4 is not what you were hitting a short time ago that's for sure

[Money]

Please show me where I said people were gonna get 12+

 

PLEASE show me. I never said that it was a guaranteed big snowstorm.

 

You have serious reading problems.