April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

Who says it doesn't show a significant storm? The majority of ensembles were strongly to the left of the ensemble mean. You aren't going to get that type of agreement 144+ hours out hence the weaker low because I am guessing some of the ensembles are very weak or don't have a storm at all. 

[East Dubzz]

???

The Farmers Almanac? It's crazy accurate with some of the stuff in it..

[Money]

0z GFS with 4-6 from Indiana up to about Detroit. 

[Geos]

Geos doesn't mention this part either

 

There is some merit to the idea that we may see a strong storm system, as the ECMWF is suggesting. Shown above was the observed 500mb height anomaly chart over the Western Pacific, where cool colors depict negative height anomalies/stormy weather, and warm colors represent quiet, warm weather. On the morning of April 6th, we saw a trough moving through Japan, possessing a pretty decent strength. This is significant, as it directly relates to what we may see in this April 13-15 timeframe .There is a rule, well explained by Joe Renken, that states a weather phenomenon in East Asia will be reciprocated in the United States 6-10 days later. This means that if there is a storm system in Japan on a certain day, we can expect a storm in the US 6-10 days after that. The same goes for high pressure and warm weather. Thus, we can expect a storm in the US on an April 12-16 period, and the April 13-15 ECMWF snowstorm falls right within this timeframe. Additionally, this trough in Japan brought along some pretty cold weather, which COULD contribute to additional chances for snow in this potential storm system. - See more at:

 

This sort of weaker projection is to be expected, as these ensemble means take the average of 52 ensemble members, unlike the ECMWF model, which only shows one solution. The next item we observe is the swath of oranges and yellows over the Plains and Midwest. These warmer colors indicate a higher spread in the ensembles; in other words, the ensemble members are in higher disagreement with one another over this higher spread envelope, thus indicating increased uncertainty. While this would initially disprove the idea of a storm system in this timeframe, note how the highest spread is located further west of the ensemble low pressure alignment, more in line with the ECMWF model. All in all, this means that the ensembles are seeing this idea of a storm, but aren't biting yet. 

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/#sthash.yp9AFm6L.dpuf

 

Geos rooting hard for this to not happen.

 

 

Not rooting - it's been the trend since early to mid March, with the exception of the upper Midwest systems. Progressive, weak, and not much moisture on the cold side.

 

6z lost it entirely now.

 

EURO is showing a NE Iowa to U.P. system now. 

[East Dubzz]

I like the new site format. Go on the mobile so often I didn't even see it.

[East Dubzz]

Up to 49 here so far today, guidance is 53. Tonight is gonna be chilly, but the rest of the week looks really nice.

[Geos]

Up to 53° already here. Been mostly sunny, which wasn't forecasted. 

[East Dubzz]

Hit 53 here at noon as well, Geos, despite a strong wind from the north. Sunshine is winning out and making it to be a pretty comfortable day out there, which is just fine with me because I have another baseball game today and was hoping it would feel pretty nice out today.

[gosaints]

GFS looking nice in the long range. basically one cold day

[Niko]

Im hearing that next week has a potential for some snow in my area and other places as well. Cold air will dominate much of the northern 2/3 of the country. Could this be the potential storm that breaks my all time record snowfall??? Still at 91.3inches thus far. Record is 93.5". Could this record be broken in mid April??? Cannot not wait to find out and see what happens.

[Niko]

Potential snowstorm exists for next week folks. Stay tuned!

[gosaints]

3 options on the table it seems.

 

1.  East coast bomb

2. progressive cold front

3.  Upper Midwest snowstorm (probably a Minneapolis special)

[Money]

Euro is a monster snowstorm for WI/IA it looks like.

 

How the snowfall maps look Tom?

 

GGEM strongly trended towards the euro as well and takes a fairly strong low through IL/IN/OH

[Steblow]

Great cheeese smoking weather..hopefully highs in the 50's last until june.  Looking forward to a nice dumping of snow from the money storm.

[Tom]

12z Euro...

 

[Money]

Hmm, not showing up for me.

[Tom]

I copied and pasted it on the forum and it worked for me but you weren't able to view it.  Now I uploaded the image and it should work now.

[Money]

Thanks Tom. Euro has been consistent as can be the last few days with this. We'll see. GGEM trended big time towards it and a couple GFS ensembles are similar to the euro.

[Steblow]

cant be right it shows la crosse actually getting a snow storm.

[gosaints]

Northwoods special

[Money]

Northwoods special

 

lol. It's not going to move that far NW because of the cold front coming through. The wave rides along that. 

[gosaints]

if its gonna dump that much snow it will be there.

[Money]

Can you explain how, or is this one of theweatherman posts where you don't think it can snow in April or that it's can't snow because it's so nice outside?

[Steblow]

start at 2-4 for MKE and work our way up from there to an eventual warning event.

[Steblow]

Geos and his elevation ftw.

[gosaints]

LOL ya money I said it cant snow in April. Snows every year here in April.  Just what I think.  Its what I thought all along with the last storm as well.  You would of come after me during that one to, but in the end you were the one missing another storm

[Money]

How do you think that with no models showing even close to that situation? This isn't where it's just a Colorado type low that has no blocking etc. It can go only so far NW because of the cold front that is coming through and a secondary wave rides up along it. 

[gosaints]

Really money.  The EURO is nowhere close to northwoods special??

[gosaints]

One more jump NW and Hayward adds to their historic winter

[Money]

What do you consider "northwoods" special? 

 

Euro is the strongest model and farthest north. It's already showing a sub 990 L, I think that's the max it can go NW tbh unless the thing really explodes (which it could) 

[Geos]

Northwoods special

 

+1.

 

Teleconnections would support that track. East Coast bomb option is out imo.

 

Geos and his elevation ftw.

 

 

Doesn't come into play this time of season! 

[Tom]

12z Euro Control...one snow band up the lakes, the other in the Plains with another system a few days later.  A lot of the ensembles are showing the same thing, even with the 2nd system showing up in the Plains/Midwest Day 10.

[Geos]

Drove through a thunder shower on the way home. Very spring feeling out today. High 56°.

 

Picture of the cell before I drove through it.

 

[East Dubzz]

Felt great playing another baseball out there today. Got a little chilly at times when the sun went over the clouds, but overall a nice day. Gonna feel really nice playing on Thursday!

[East Dubzz]

Drove through a thunder shower on the way home. Very spring feeling out today. High 56°.

 

Picture of the cell before I drove through it.

 

 

Nice picture there Geos. I always enjoy seeing rain falling from a distance.

[Geos]

The first crack of thunder I heard from that storm kind of shocked me since it was so close! lol

 

63° in the grid for tomorrow with gusts SW winds.

[East Dubzz]

The first crack of thunder I heard from that storm kind of shocked me since it was so close! lol

 

63° in the grid for tomorrow with gusts SW winds.

65 is the forecast here tomorrow, which is crazy since it's supposed to get down to 32 here overnight. Currently at 46.

[james1976]

nice to see euro and ggem lining up decently. euro has been way consistent.

[Money]

Yeah, when you see the euro and it's ensembles being this consistent you know the other models will usually follow. It happened last storm, and I think we see it happen again. Still 5 days out or so.

[james1976]

local met has 47 as the lowest high for the next 7 days. no mention of snow.