April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[gosaints]

lol

What are your thoughts money

[Jaycee]

I give up on weather.

[Geos]

lol

 

Seems to be the consensus for this immediate area.

It's pretty obvious given this is a day time event, icing won't be a big issue.

 

Also try not to post such short messages/responses. Clutters up the board.

[Money]

You're making call for a storm 4-5 days out where the models are all over the place yet. The only reason why you said that is because you don't want it to snow anymore. It's wishcasting, and it's pretty sad how this weather has affected you. 

[East Dubzz]

You're making call for a storm 4-5 days out where the models are all over the place yet. The only reason why you said that is because you don't want it to snow anymore. It's wishcasting, and it's pretty sad how this weather has affected you.

 

He said: "I think the case this week will be a couple spells of cold rain, maybe a few flurries at night at the tail end of the second wave."

 

He said "I think" ... To me, that's not making a call, just saying what he thinks will happen at this point. Take a step back, realize we're all entitled to our opinions, and post what you believe, he'll post what he believes, I'll post what I believe, Tom will post what he believes, and everyone will post what they believe. The constant attacks on Geos are really getting annoying, especially since he's not calling you out or anything. Just let it go man, we can all post whatever we please. I'm tired of this stuff cluttering up the boards.

[tim the weatherman]

He said: "I think the case this week will be a couple spells of cold rain, maybe a few flurries at night at the tail end of the second wave."

 

He said "I think" ... To me, that's not making a call, just saying what he thinks will happen at this point. Take a step back, realize we're all entitled to our opinions, and post what you believe, he'll post what he believes, I'll post what I believe, Tom will post what he believes, and everyone will post what they believe. The constant attacks on Geos are really getting annoying, especially since he's not calling you out or anything. Just let it go man, we can all post whatever we please. I'm tired of this stuff cluttering up the boards.

i agree

[Geos]

Yeah that is my call. Models are leaning towards that solution today... and yesterday they were showing about the same thing. 

 

I've had a 0.5" of snow in the last 25 days, so I'm not too optimistic about snow chances anymore.

 

GGEM now takes the low NW like the 18z GFS did. Low track towards MSP. First wave stays south of I-80 predominantly. 

[tim the weatherman]

Yeah that is my call. Models are leaning towards that solution today... and yesterday they were showing about the same thing. 

 

I've had a 0.5" of snow in the last 25 days, so I'm not too optimistic about snow chances anymore.

 

GGEM now takes the low NW like the 18z GFS did. Low track towards MSP. First wave stays south of I-80 predominantly. 

if you can look at this that all of our big snow chances will hit the dakotas and minnesota to up of michigan and geos is right that i am not too omtimistic on snow chances anymore this year until next winter that we are going thru the final warming of the statosphere and the polar vortex is collapsing.

[NEJeremy]

Yeah all this talk of feet of snow really hasn't transpired. Sure it hasn't warmed up that quickly but it's not like any of us are getting buried lately(except for tomorrow in northern SoDak, ND, and northern MN or about where you would expect things this time of year).

[Money]

GB AFD

 

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC SO WE WON/T HAVE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. IT DOES LOOK INTERESTING WITH ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL DELIVER LOW
LEVEL COLD DRY AIR SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
FREEZING BUT ABOVE FREEZING AIR AROUND 850MB COULD MAKE FOR A MIXTURE
OF SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

 

 

The bolded part is why geos making calls this far out is pretty stupid imo

[Iowawx]

I think were done with the snow here in Iowa. I think Thursday-Friday will be just a lot of rain, possibly 1-2 inches of it. I'm not saying for sure, but I highly doubt we see anymore snow in April. The storm for Thursday-Friday would have to come south quite a bit for any snow to occur. We do need the rain here though.

[gosaints]

Money so making calls 4 to 5 days out but posting snow maps and calling for 1 to 2 feet a week or more out isn't ?

[Tom]

I think week 2 may be Winter's last real push as the MJO enters phase 3, trough in the east, ridge in the west, EPO/WPO tank according to the Euro.  Both GGEM/EURO showing some chilly air entering the lower 48 out of Canada around Day 8-10 and has eyes for the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Next week may not be the last days to see snow this season.  Week 2 still has potential.

 

 

[Money]

Money so making calls 4 to 5 days out but posting snow maps and calling for 1 to 2 feet a week or more out isn't ?

 

PLEASE show me where Tom or anyone else "called" that 1-2 feet of snow will fall

 

Please show me gosaints

[Money]

Tom said that this storm has the potential to produce 1-2 feet somewhere. He never said where or what location.

 

18z GFS showing 1 feet + in MN and NW WI 

[tim the weatherman]

I think week 2 may be Winter's last real push as the MJO enters phase 3, trough in the east, ridge in the west, EPO/WPO tank according to the Euro.  Both GGEM/EURO showing some chilly air entering the lower 48 out of Canada around Day 8-10 and has eyes for the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Next week may not be the last days to see snow this season.  Week 2 still has potential.

ridge in the east and troughing in the east becuase the mjo phase 3 means  and those models that is saying chilly air is what you see in the winter and we are going thru the final warming of the stratosphere and the polar vortex is collapsing too.

[clintbeed1993]

Wrote this up on my Central Nebraska Winter Weather page today regarding the dry winter.

 

Now that Winter of 2013/2014 is behind us, let's look at the overall pattern that shaped our weather. As you can see, we have just finished one of our driest winters in recent history. Most of the state received very little precipitation from November through March. Why were we so dry? The big reason has to do with upper level flow. If you read my 2013/2014 Winter Outlook in October, I mentioned Northwest flow as a possible hindrance to our snowfall. The Jetstream is what drives our weather, and the Jetstream has been in a very bad place for precipitation in Nebraska. The overall pattern of the winter featured broad Northwest Upper Level flow. When you have a prolonged period of Northwest flow, you will have a very hard time getting moisture into the area. As you can see by the image of Northwest flow, it works to cut off moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The winds are not bringing moisture from the South, so storms can't get going.

So what caused the Northwest Flow? The main cause of Northwest Flow this winter was a very warm Pacific Ocean. The temperature of the Pacific Ocean is often a driver for the weather pattern in the United States. This winter featured a warm body of water just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This causes a ridge of high pressure to develop just off the coast. Where the ridge develops will determine where the trough lays. The trough is what causes the stormy weather, and the trough was positioned just to our East for the majority of the winter. The trough to our East, working with energy within Northwest Flow, worked to produce heavy snow in Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois. Chicago just finished one of their snowiest winters on record. This produced the opposite weather in Nebraska, with prolonged periods of dry and cold. We also had to deal with that nasty wind as well.

Hopefully that wasn't too hard to understand. I know weather can get kind of complicated. Bottom line: We saw a very unfavorable pattern develop, all driven by the water temperature and a ridge of high pressure in the Pacific Northwest. South and Southwest Flow= Plentiful moisture and good storms. North and Northwest Flow= Moisture cutoff and storms rolling to our North and passing to our East. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments! Let's hope for a much wetter pattern this Spring and Summer!

[Geos]

I think if it's going to snow and accumulate anymore it will be this week. If it does snow this week in the Great Lakes, it would probably favor north of Milwaukee.

 

North of a MSP to GRB line is fair game until Easter probably.

[gosaints]

Tom said that this storm has the potential to produce 1-2 feet somewhere. He never said where or what location.

 

18z GFS showing 1 feet + in MN and NW WI

lol that would be your response. I am glad u found it and I didn't have to. Money you wish cast as much as anyone. U know cold rain tears u up

[Money]

He said it has the potential, he never said it was going to happen. Not sure where you are going with this and criticizing him.

[Geos]

Wrote this up on my Central Nebraska Winter Weather page today regarding the dry winter.

 

Now that Winter of 2013/2014 is behind us, let's look at the overall pattern that shaped our weather. As you can see, we have just finished one of our driest winters in recent history. Most of the state received very little precipitation from November through March. Why were we so dry? The big reason has to do with upper level flow. If you read my 2013/2014 Winter Outlook in October, I mentioned Northwest flow as a possible hindrance to our snowfall. The Jetstream is what drives our weather, and the Jetstream has been in a very bad place for precipitation in Nebraska. The overall pattern of the winter featured broad Northwest Upper Level flow. When you have a prolonged period of Northwest flow, you will have a very hard time getting moisture into the area. As you can see by the image of Northwest flow, it works to cut off moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The winds are not bringing moisture from the South, so storms can't get going.

 

So what caused the Northwest Flow? The main cause of Northwest Flow this winter was a very warm Pacific Ocean. The temperature of the Pacific Ocean is often a driver for the weather pattern in the United States. This winter featured a warm body of water just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This causes a ridge of high pressure to develop just off the coast. Where the ridge develops will determine where the trough lays. The trough is what causes the stormy weather, and the trough was positioned just to our East for the majority of the winter. The trough to our East, working with energy within Northwest Flow, worked to produce heavy snow in Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois. Chicago just finished one of their snowiest winters on record. This produced the opposite weather in Nebraska, with prolonged periods of dry and cold. We also had to deal with that nasty wind as well.

 

Hopefully that wasn't too hard to understand. I know weather can get kind of complicated. Bottom line: We saw a very unfavorable pattern develop, all driven by the water temperature and a ridge of high pressure in the Pacific Northwest. South and Southwest Flow= Plentiful moisture and good storms. North and Northwest Flow= Moisture cutoff and storms rolling to our North and passing to our East. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments! Let's hope for a much wetter pattern this Spring and Summer!

 

Very good explanation! Easy for anyone to understand.

[gosaints]

He said it has the potential, he never said it was going to happen. Not sure where you are going with this and criticizing him.

And you are criticizing GEOS for making a call??

 

What is your call money if you are gonna rip on GEOS?

[gosaints]

So if I add the word "potential" to any guess then you will say that's OK?

[gosaints]

And the euro shows nothing but rain all week

[Geos]

ridge in the east and troughing in the east becuase the mjo phase 3 means  and those models that is saying chilly air is what you see in the winter and we are going thru the final warming of the stratosphere and the polar vortex is collapsing too.

 

GFS shows the PV will be pretty much finished off by 168 hours.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp.php

 

EURO a bit sooner.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp_ecmwf.php

 

----

 

Money - just respect people's opinions including mine. I'm not guaranteeing my calls or anything. You should realize that!

Weather is never a guarantee!

[tim the weatherman]

the what money is a troll he is ripping to me and geos and i am so sick and tired of him doing that to geos and i because we speak our minds and opinions.

[Money]

14-18 inches of snow next week imo

[tim the weatherman]

14-18 inches of snow next week imo

how can you have 14 to 18 inches with the pv finishes off in the next week lol.

[Money]

Didn't you predict that when the models showed like an inch of snow for you 24-48 hours before the event?

[gosaints]

14-18 inches of snow next week imo

Likely response out of you when you know nobody predicted anything crazier than u

[tim the weatherman]

GFS shows the PV will be pretty much finished off by 168 hours.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp.php

 

EURO a bit sooner.

 

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_stratosphere_temp_ecmwf.php

 

----

 

Money - just respect people's opinions including mine. I'm not guaranteeing my calls or anything. You should realize that!

Weather is never a guarantee!

just used a tool to calculated 168 hours to 7 days and no hours.

[Geos]

just used a tool to calculated 168 hours to 7 days and no hours.

 

That's the ballpark figure I threw out from what I saw on the maps. The remnant piece of the vortex drifts over Russia in about 7 days.

[tim the weatherman]

That's the ballpark figure I threw out for what I saw on the maps. The remnant piece of the vortex drifts over Russia in about 7 days.

that is good news geos that people from the plains to the east coast can have a good spring.

[Money]

0z GFS much farther SE taking the low south of Chicago. gosaints area gets hit hard.

 

12+ from LSE up towards GB.

 

Big FZR event here in S. WI with 1+ QPF.

[Money]

0z ggem is still NW of the GFS however it came in farther SE and colder as well.

 

HR 120

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

[tim the weatherman]

0z GFS much farther SE taking the low south of Chicago. gosaints area gets hit hard.

 

12+ from LSE up towards GB.

 

Big FZR event here in S. WI with 1+ QPF.

dream on money

[tim the weatherman]

0z ggem is still NW of the GFS however it came in farther SE and colder as well.

 

HR 120

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

this too

[Money]

GGEM monster ice storm for S. WI even with the low in Iowa. 

[tim the weatherman]

GGEM monster ice storm for S. WI even with the low in Iowa. 

you are so wrong money that it will be a big rain event for south wisc.

[Money]

I'm just posting what the models show.

 

GGEM/GFS show monster ice storm.