April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[gabel23]

This is the advisory we get to see in our area! Yeah another dust storm! 

 

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A BLOWING
DUST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING.


* WIND...FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 35 MPH...ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...TO AROUND A HALF MILE IN BLOWING DUST...AND
PERHAPS APPROACHING A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE WIND WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY...FINALLY
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY LATER THIS EVENING. ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IN BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

[gabel23]

Storm report in Western Nebraska......

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1024 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 AM DUST STORM CAMBRIDGE 40.28N 100.17W
03/31/2014 FURNAS NE PUBLIC

NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY...DUE TO BLOWING DUST...REPORTED
BETWEEN CAMBRIDGE AND OXFORD IN FURNAS COUNTY. REPORT
RELAYED BY MEDIA.
 

[th_snow]

999.1 MB L on the OK/KS border at HR 72. 

Still north of other guidance at 96 hours.  

[CentralNebWeather]

I have lived in Central Nebraska my entire life.  Have never seen a blowing dust advisory.  We are in one now.  For anyone who doesn't believe we are in a drought come out here and see for yourself.  0 visibility in blowing dust reported in Furnas County.  Unbelievable how dry it is.  I wasn't alive during the 1930's but this is what I envision when read reports or watch video from that time.  We have had more wind advisories, high wind warnings, red flag warnings than most locations would have in a decade just this winter (or what was supposed to be winter).  This is why we are frustrated when he hear of breaking snowfall records when we would beg for 1 inch of rain.

[Jaycee]

I agree 100 percent. It is been so long between storms you wonder if it is still possible.

It really has boiled down to that for me and I'm sure everyone else out here. We're within 96 hours of this storm, and it looks solid to say the least, it's just that my confidence in models for this area is zero. I've lost all faith in models to tell ya the truth. It almost doesn't seem possible for it to storm here. I joked about a blowing dust advisory earlier this year, not knowing it even existed. 3 months later, what do you know. It's sick. Iowa and points east setting a record year for snow, and we're setting a record year for dryness?? How in the hell. It's just wrong man! 

 

EDIT: Wow, it is really getting worse at a rapid pace. It wasn't long ago when my county was in the clear. Now we're in the moderate stage, as March is usually a month of insane weather here. Counting on April to give me something. 

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20140325/20140325_ne_none.png

[Geos]

I'm going to start a thread for this storm. 95% of this thread is about it and April hasn't even started yet!

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/215-april-2nd-4th-storm-system-both-waves/

[Tom]

Took a look at the Euro Weeklies...major trough develops Day 10-15...

 

[tim the weatherman]

Took a look at the Euro Weeklies...major trough develops Day 10-15...

this could be our last hard freeze after that then we will getting a warmer pattern.

[Geos]

Had a high of 57° about 7 hours ago, but now only 34°. Hopefully it can recover to the upper 40s later. Quite windy out this morning.

 

That trough looks a bit too deep for the time of season. 

 

If you can read along the seam of the map it shows a ridge in the central US - GFS.

 

[tim the weatherman]

this is the current teleconnections forecast.ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[East Dubzz]

Happy April!

 

....got down to 24, actually still 24 here, quite a bit below guidance. Wind chill of 8.

[clintbeed1993]

This is from Hastings NWS in Nebraska regarding how dry it has been.

 

Driest stretch of days between Nov. 6-March 31 on record at Grand Island...

As anybody knows, much of our local area has seen a VERY dry winter, especially north of the Nebraska-Kansas border area. As a matter of fact, Grand Island has officially only measured 1.02" of precipitation since Nov. 6th. This is the least-amount of precip EVER measured during this particular time frame, out of 119 years of records dating all the way back to 1896.

Hopefully April brings some much-needed moisture and this notably dry trend starts to reverse.

 

Driest in 119 years of records.  That should make anyone on this forum feel bad for us over here.

[jaster220]

This is from Hastings NWS in Nebraska regarding how dry it has been.

 

Driest stretch of days between Nov. 6-March 31 on record at Grand Island...

As anybody knows, much of our local area has seen a VERY dry winter, especially north of the Nebraska-Kansas border area. As a matter of fact, Grand Island has officially only measured 1.02" of precipitation since Nov. 6th. This is the least-amount of precip EVER measured during this particular time frame, out of 119 years of records dating all the way back to 1896.

Hopefully April brings some much-needed moisture and this notably dry trend starts to reverse.

 

Driest in 119 years of records.  That should make anyone on this forum feel bad for us over here.

 

I feel for ya man! From your driest & stormless winter to my coldest & (nearly) snowiest, it surely has been a winter of crazy extremes across the Plains/Midwest!     Our snows have shut off, so hopefully you guys will also turn a corner soon!

[Tony]

What's up with the temps this morning. It is darn cold out there. Don't know how we will hit 50 today let alone 40.

[Geos]

What's up with the temps this morning. It is darn cold out there. Don't know how we will hit 50 today let alone 40.

 

I guess the forecasters are counting on the CAA evacuating the area as the clouds continue to pull NE.

 

 

 

Looks like it's going to be quite wet in the Midwest coming up.

Nice Bermuda high forms towards the 10th of the month on the GFS.

[tim the weatherman]

just saw something from the weather centre's blog that between the 9th and the 15th we could be looking at mulitple storm systems that could be strong to severe that can hit anywhere from the plains to the midwest to the ohio valley to the east coast to the southeast too.

[Tony]

Pretty unsettled weather for next week with possible LES on this side of the lake. Now that would be pretty wild for this time of the year.

[tim the weatherman]

i have a funny feeling that april will be an active month with unsettled and stormy weather.

[Geos]

just saw something from the weather centre's blog that between the 9th and the 15th we could be looking at mulitple storm systems that could be strong to severe that can hit anywhere from the plains to the midwest to the ohio valley to the east coast to the southeast too.

 

I saw that too. Looks to be associated with a Bermuda high parking itself off the East Coast and a SW flow ( neutral tilted trough).

[tim the weatherman]

I saw that too. Looks to be associated with a Bermuda high parking itself off the East Coast and a SW flow ( neutral tilted trough).

with a -pna and with a +nao means that the storms will go up towards the great lakes and intensifly and so chicago needs to be aware of this.

[Snowshoe]

Let's play guess the month! Go ahead and guess which month my screen shot is from and you can win perpetual winter!!!

 

 

 

[East Dubzz]

I'm gonna guess April 1, 2014 at 12:54 PM CDT.

[Tony]

I am hearing Euro has a pretty big storm next week. 996mb that goes from S. IN to Detroit

[Jaycee]

Man alive. The driest year in 119 years. Drier than the years of the dust bowl. Unbelievable. Sounds weird and well over the top, but we need prayers out here folks. People are going to lose their incomes out here, anywhere west of Omaha/Lincoln, it's farmers. They DEPEND on weather. And we haven't gotten any. This is going to skyrocket your prices at the grocery stores. There was a dust storm warning out west, which is the first one I think ever warranted in the state. Hope this storm on the second doesn't dry slot us, it'd be hell, and I'd freak out as well as farmers out here as well if we don't generate some sort of solid precipitation out here.

[Geos]

I am hearing Euro has a pretty big storm next week. 996mb that goes from S. IN to Detroit

 

Yeah big rain storm. Over 0.8"-1.2" of rain for NE IL in the next 10 days.

 

1-4" rain amounts in downstate IN, OH and IL.

 

---

 

That's unimpressive not good news Nebraska. Hopefully a SW flow does setup and your state gets hosed this month. 

[Tom]

CFSv2 says there is no reprieve from the below normal temperature pattern and NO sustained warms up in sight....check out how deep those purple colors are in Canada that are forecasted this far out.  As we get closer, those temp departures get colder.

[tim the weatherman]

CFSv2 says there is no reprieve from the below normal temperature pattern and NO sustained warms up in sight....check out how deep those purple colors are in Canada that are forecasted this far out.  As we get closer, those temp departures get colder.

no way tom that +nao +ao -pna that means a ridge in the east and a trough in the west and with the mjo heading to phase 3 or 4.

[Tom]

12z Euro Control concurs...April will surely bring wild swings this month, possibly extreme temperature swings.

[tim the weatherman]

12z Euro Control concurs...April will surely bring wild swings this month, possibly extreme temperature swings.

you're so wrong tom how you say that we will have extreme temprature swings in april that the +ao +nao and -pna happening that the stratosphere is going thru it.s final warming that the polar vortex is collapsing so that means that we are going thru temprature swings but not that extreme that like geos has stated not to long ago that the reminant piece of the polar vortex is going north to russia within the nextweek.

[Geos]

Yeah if the PV is dead in the next 1-2 weeks than everything will start to go zonal and the jet stream will weaken into summer mode. I really don't see the support for what the CFS or EURO shows now. 

Models are in struggle mode imo.

 

Actually now it looks like +AO, +NAO, and +PNA. That = zonal.

 

GFS shows a central US ridge Day 9-14.

 

  

[tim the weatherman]

Yeah big rain storm. Over 0.8"-1.2" of rain for NE IL in the next 10 days.

 

1-4" rain amounts in downstate IN, OH and IL.

 

---

 

That's unimpressive not good news Nebraska. Hopefully a SW flow does setup and your state gets hosed this month. 

you gotta find out where the 32 degree line is.

[tim the weatherman]

Yeah if the PV is dead in the next 1-2 weeks than everything will start to go zonal and the jet stream will weaken into summer mode. I really don't see the support for what the CFS or EURO shows now. 

Models are in struggle mode imo.

 

Actually now it looks like +AO, +NAO, and +PNA. That = zonal.

 

GFS shows a central US ridge Day 9-14.

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_2_nh.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_nh/forecast_3_nh.gif

after our last hard freeze then we will have warmer weather(tom is right on that one that we not had our hard freeze yet but not extreme).

[Geos]

you gotta find out where the 32 degree line is.

 

Basically during the entire time span of the storm it stays above 35° south of the Canadian border. - on the EURO.

[Tom]

Chicago record the coldest December - March period on record dating back to 1872!

 

www.wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/01/its-official-chicago-experienced-the-coldest-four-months-ever/

[Geos]

Chicago record the coldest December - March period on record dating back to 1872!

 

www.wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/01/its-official-chicago-experienced-the-coldest-four-months-ever/

 

Glad it set some all time record - after all of that!

 

 

---

Still decent out tonight with temps hovering around 40°.

[East Dubzz]

Glad it set some all time record - after all of that!

 

 

---

Still decent out tonight with temps hovering around 40°.

Yeah a little chilly tonight still, but at least there isn't that crazy wind.

[Geos]

Dipped to 27° here this morning. I was surprised by the bright sunshine this morning.

[Snowshoe]

I'm gonna guess April 1, 2014 at 12:54 PM CDT.

You get the point

[East Dubzz]

You get the point

Just messing around with you buddy

[tim the weatherman]

fondout on facebook that 8 to 14 day forecast shows a zonal flow so that means we will have a +ao that will take the jetstrean northward.