April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

Wisconsin

 

Hell of a season tho

[Tom]

00z GFS continuing to show a major severe weather outbreak ahead of a very strong cold front next weekend.  00z GFS sends high temps near 30F for next Mon/Tue...that would be insane if it transpires and would be the trigger to fire up some big time storms with such a dramatic temperature contrast.  Probably end up being a squall line type event from what it looks like now.  Normally these type of events don't produce super cell thunderstorms but some may pop out ahead of the front.

 

Get out and try to enjoy the weather next week, because it looks like the below normal temp regime is going to grip the region once again.  How depressing would that be to have temps near 70F next Sunday, then plummet nearly 30F below normal!  Guess the year without a Spring is holding up if these intrusions of cold keep coming down from Canada over the very deep snow pack up there.

 

CFSv2 still showing significant temp departures over about 85% of Canada for the entire month of April.  Mid April being the worse of it.

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensembles agree with the GFS in the long range with resurging cold shots over the eastern CONUS.  This would be a significant impact on the growing season in our region and in the south with possible freeze events.  Models are definitely looking colder and not warmer like they were this past week.  Looks like the west coast ridge and the warm pool of water in the NE Pacific is going to continue to be in the driver seat. 

 

Guess I made the right decision to come out west and enjoy the warmth!  All my friends out here have been asking me about the winter we had back in Chicago and how in comparison their unusual warm winter was here in AZ.  Tucson, AZ had the warmest winter on record.  The tale of 2 cities is sharp contrast.

[tim the weatherman]

12z Euro Ensembles agree with the GFS in the long range with resurging cold shots over the eastern CONUS.  This would be a significant impact on the growing season in our region and in the south with possible freeze events.  Models are definitely looking colder and not warmer like they were this past week.  Looks like the west coast ridge and the warm pool of water in the NE Pacific is going to continue to be in the driver seat. 

 

Guess I made the right decision to come out west and enjoy the warmth!  All my friends out here have been asking me about the winter we had back in Chicago and how in comparison their unusual warm winter was here in AZ.  Tucson, AZ had the warmest winter on record.  The tale of 2 cities is sharp contrast.

i agree and disagree that we has not had our last freeze yet and this does not have an impact on our farmers after the hard freeze that we will start to warm up for good.

[East Dubzz]

Hopefully it continues to warm-up today. In the mid-40s now, but with a solid breeze and limited sunshine, it's still a bit chilly out today.

[Tom]

00z Euro says snows ain't over for the region yet...850's would support snow in WI/IA and a change over in N IL....would be wild if this came true.  Palm Sunday would bring quite the bi-polar weather pattern for N IL from near 70F during the day to snow falling Sunday night.

[East Dubzz]

00z Euro says snows ain't over for the region yet...850's would support snow in WI/IA and a change over in N IL....would be wild if this came true. Palm Sunday would bring quite the bi-polar weather pattern for N IL from near 70F during the day to snow falling Sunday night.

In all fairness, Tom, I don't how many times over the past month or more the models have showed a significant amount of snow that came out to be nothing. I'm sure this is just another wild run that will amount to nothing, except maybe a rainstorm.

[Tom]

I agree, it will more than likely end up being a very sharp cold front with some minimal snows up north.  A 40 degree temp drop won't feel to nice though and early next week looks very chilly.

[tim the weatherman]

according to accuweather that our avg highs upper 50s to lower 60s and our lows in the  mid 30s to lower 40s (but don't forget that we has not have our last freeze yet that might come by early next week).

[tim the weatherman]

00z Euro says snows ain't over for the region yet...850's would support snow in WI/IA and a change over in N IL....would be wild if this came true.  Palm Sunday would bring quite the bi-polar weather pattern for N IL from near 70F during the day to snow falling Sunday night.

this model is wrong by the way that these always do this lol.

[East Dubzz]

I'm seeing a lot of 60s in the forecast, and I love it. Even today is starting to feel pretty dang nice out.

[james1976]

yeah im not buying the Euro. its been doing that a lot lately. GFS has us mostly dry now for that system with precip developing toward the ohio valley. would love to see some tstorms.

[tim the weatherman]

was looking at an intrested article on the weather centre that from the mid month on we will be going thru seasonal to above normal temps thanks to the kelvin wave and the mjo going to phase 5 and 6.

[Tom]

I don't see much of a warm up or above normal temps from April 14 thru the 26th.  CFSv2 continues to show abysmal temperatures for mid/late April standards.

 

Week 1-2 just look real chilly with below normal temps in the Lakes/Midwest...worst comes next Mon-Wed

[Tom]

12z Euro still showing snow....850's crash to -10C and precip still stays around to changeover to wet snow.  Just saying...

[Tom]

Euro Control still showing accumulating snow through lower lakes next week.  Def something to keep an eye and if this system can phase, look out.  There is enough cold air around that this system can tap into if it matures completely otherwise it will be a frontal system.

 

Euro ensembles keep resurging cold shots beyond Day 10-15 like the CFSv2.  Sad to say, because after this upcoming Spring-like week it looks like the below normal pattern will continue.  CPC agrees and looks a lot like the CFSv2 temp departure map.

 

 

[gosaints]

Euro Control still showing accumulating snow through lower lakes next week. Def something to keep an eye and if this system can phase, look out. There is enough cold air around that this system can tap into if it matures completely otherwise it will be a frontal system.

 

Euro ensembles keep resurging cold shots beyond Day 10-15 like the CFSv2. Sad to say, because after this upcoming Spring-like week it looks like the below normal pattern will continue. CPC agrees and looks a lot like the CFSv2 temp departure map.

A needle in the haystack

[Jaycee]

What happened to the GFS??? That potent 'severe weather outbreak' that was looking plausible looks like it completely dissipated on the 12z/18z runs.

[clintbeed1993]

What happened to the GFS??? That potent 'severe weather outbreak' that was looking plausible looks like it completely dissipated on the 12z/18z runs.

 

 

It went away because you touch yourself at night! lol

[East Dubzz]

Lol, what the hell. Haha.

 

I really want a severe outbreak sometime soon, I'm itching for some severe weather or at least some nice thunder and lightning! I would actually love an all-night lightning and thunder type of thing, those are always my favorite.

[Geos]

With the rest of the polar vortex disappearing this week, I don't know how those kinds of departures can come to fruition. It'll likely be below normal, but not double digit below normal. The snow pack in Canada is going to take a beating this week, especially across the Prairie Provinces.

 

Made it to 53° here today. +1° normal. There was multiple bird species singing today. 

[Jaycee]

It went away because you touch yourself at night! lol

Jeezus, you blow your grandfather with that mouth??

[tim the weatherman]

With the rest of the polar vortex disappearing this week, I don't know how those kinds of departures can come to fruition. It'll likely be below normal, but not double digit below normal. The snow pack in Canada is going to take a beating this week, especially across the Prairie Provinces.

 

Made it to 53° here today. +1° normal. There was multiple bird species singing today. 

that i'll be slightly below normal geos that andrew at the weather centre said on his blog that from mid month and beyond that two thirds of the conus will be in a warmer pattren so that is telling me that the below normal temps is coming to an end so that means that will shut down the snows for the season.

[The Snowman]

Read thru all 22 pages of this thread, certainly has gotten a little brisk in here...

 

Looking for a cool & stormy period right in the middle of the month before we begin pushing into some warmer weather towards the end of the month. Could be difficult to get some really solid warmth until the end of the month, as the stratosphere & other factors keep some intermittent cool weather around.

[Money]

fyi, the 0z GFS is now showing that snowstorm except farther south in Indiana and Ohio with 6-12+ 

[tim the weatherman]

fyi, the 0z GFS is now showing that snowstorm except farther south in Indiana and Ohio with 6-12+ 

dream on lol

[Money]

that ice storm panned out in Wisconsin even though you said it wouldn't.

 

And i never said it was going to happen, just sharing what the model shows. 

[The Snowman]

dream on lol

He's just stating what the model shows. No need to get chippy about it; he's not the GFS model system that actually makes the forecast, after all.

[Tom]

12z Euro Control painted a 6-12" band through IL/IN/OH as well...

[Money]

The average dates for the last measurable snow (0.1" or more):

Milwaukee........................April 8th                               Madison...........................April 8th 

 

The latest date for the last measurable snow:

 

Milwaukee........................May 23, 1912 - 0.2"            Madison...........................May 11, 2006 - 0.3" May 11, 1966 - 0.7"

 

The earliest date for the last measurable snow:

Milwaukee........................February 23, 1945 - 0.1"    Madison...........................February 6, 1902 - 0.1"

 

The average dates for the last trace of snow:

Milwaukee........................April 25th                             Madison...........................April 27th 

 

The latest date for the last trace of snow:

Milwaukee........................May 31, 1912 &1993           Madison...........................May 31, 1889

 

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mkx&storyid=101581&source=0

[gosaints]

We have people acting like snow in the forum in April is some sort of miracle.

[Geos]

that ice storm panned out in Wisconsin even though you said it wouldn't.

 

And i never said it was going to happen, just sharing what the model shows. 

 

That ice storm didn't pan out like you were saying it would though with up to an inch of ice!

That storm was a bust in several ways.

 

Heavy snow accumulations would never happen in the Ohio Valley next week. Too late in the season now.

 

---

 

Looks like the 6z GFS tries to fire off some convection in Iowa this weekend.

 

 

Then later further east.

 

[East Dubzz]

A couple rain showers moving through this morning, won't really amount to anything. Would be nice to get a little bit of rain, though, because it won't be long before the grass starts growing and greening up, and a little rain to help aid in that process in always nice!

[gosaints]

EURO and Canadian are very progressive with the cold shot.  Typical powerful spring cold front

[Hawkeye]

If the Sunday front can move across the area slowly enough we could get a nice soaking.  The Euro has been hitting Iowa pretty good.  The GFS has been a bit more progressive.

[Geos]

Actually mostly sunny here this morning. Little cooler, but not too bad.

[tim the weatherman]

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[Money]

Geos, please show me where I said areas would get an inch of ice? I would love to see it.

[Hawkeye]

Actually mostly sunny here this morning. Little cooler, but not too bad.

 

I was expecting all-day cloudiness, but instead much of the area is mostly sunny.  Our temp is already up to 56 so we have a good shot at 60 again.  60s are beginning to pile up now, a sure sign that winter is history.

[tim the weatherman]

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAIL THE FRONT

WITH MODESTLY COOLER MID LEVEL AIR IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY KEEPING MAX

TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD AROUND 60. THE UPPER FLOW STAYS LOW AMPLITUDE

AND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SPAWNING SURFACE LOW

DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD

TO STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND WARMER TEMPS. A STRONGER

TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND

NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG COLD FRONT

INTO SUNDAY. THE SPEED WITH WHICH THIS MAY OCCUR IS NOT CLEAR

LEAVING RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY BUT A PERIOD

OF PRECIP FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR IS FAVORED GOING INTO EARLY NEXT

WEEK.(from lot)