jaster220 Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 12z Euro is gonna make good on it's snow promise from 4 days ago. Even a couple mb's lower than the NAM was Snowfall map from 12z last Sunday: This coming Sunday morning's Surface: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 Western shore of Lake Mich region that got hurt with warmth of yesterday's system will be making up for that according to the models. I think they will do real well in the "banana belt" of the S UP. Looks like lake enhancement will be their friend this go-round! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 The euro, especially, continues to show a dry hole over Iowa as much of the moisture gets diverted up into the northern plains or eastward into the Ohio Valley. It only has 0.40-0.50" of rain around here. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gem with almost 10 inches here and euro hammers central WI Gfs no where close 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gem with almost 10 inches here and euro hammers central WI Gfs no where close GFS lost on this one. I think most of Wisco does well Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 My oldest sister has lived in the Black Hills of SD since the mid-80s. First in the central region, then in the far south in Hot Springs where her gov job took her. That location is the banana belt of the state and will again be very sheltered by the hills from the raging Plains bliz surrounding them. In all these years I cannot remember a storm that was a Major out there, and also came into the Mitt with anything significant. Wild times my friends! Gonna be some krazy blowing and drifting out there: Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Rapid City SD217 AM MST Thu Nov 28 2019...Significant post Thanksgiving winter storm late Friday throughSaturday....A vigorous storm system will move from the central Rockies intothe central plains Friday into Saturday. The storm will bringlarge amounts of moisture and very strong winds. A wintry mix ofmay occur Friday before changing over to all snow Friday nightand early Saturday. Strong winds, with gusts of 50 to 65 mph, willdevelop across northeast Wyoming and northwest South DakotaSaturday, resulting in widespread blizzard conditions. Snowfallamounts around a foot are possible along and north of Interstate90, with up to two feet possible in the northern Black Hills.Travel could become impossible late Friday night through Saturdaynight. Even though the snow will end Saturday night, snow packedand icy roads will still be found across the area on Sunday.Persons planning travel over the weekend should consider alternateplans. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 Was reading my office and it was like "meh, what storm?", so I toggled to APX and d *mn! .SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)Issued at 345 AM EST Thu Nov 28 2019High impact weather potential: Winter storm Saturday through Sunday.Possibly some freezing drizzle south of M-72 late Saturday intoSunday with the dry slot. Near blizzard conditions possible lateSaturday night through Sunday morning north of M-32 into easternupper. That's a bit north of where I'll be, but still.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 Nothing quite like enjoying a holiday while tracking the next BD storm! And thx to my wife's idea that we go up to Traverse, I'm expecting to be in the game: Sunday looks like it could just bedownright nasty...possibly near blizzard conditions during thethe early morning hours Sunday with heavy snow and strong easterlywinds gusting to over 35 mph over the Tip of the Mitt and Straitsarea. Using QPF and snow ratios of around 10:1...most locationscould see 5-8 inches of snow late Saturday night through the daySunday, while locally higher amounts will be possible towards theTip of the Mitt and eastern upper...some totals of 12+ inches willnot be out of the question. Will start messaging today about theforecast impacts and stressing that weekend holiday travel will beimpacted...especially late Saturday through Sunday. She asked me about a month ago to make a plan, and this long holiday weekend was the best option. I said "but sweetie, you know it can already be winter in NMI in November?" She still said yes, so I have her to blame (thank) for this increasingly likely rendezvous with the white gold hit. The 3-5-12 rendezvous was totally my idea, but what a memorable adventure that ended up being. Pretty sure my wife and daughter thought we'd never make it into town that night! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 My oldest sister has lived in the Black Hills of SD since the mid-80s. First in the central region, then in the far south in Hot Springs where her gov job took her. That location is the banana belt of the state and will again be very sheltered by the hills from the raging Plains bliz surrounding them. In all these years I cannot remember a storm that was a Major out there, and also came into the Mitt with anything significant. Wild times my friends! Gonna be some krazy blowing and drifting out there: Blizzard Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Rapid City SD217 AM MST Thu Nov 28 2019 ...Significant post Thanksgiving winter storm late Friday throughSaturday... .A vigorous storm system will move from the central Rockies intothe central plains Friday into Saturday. The storm will bringlarge amounts of moisture and very strong winds. A wintry mix ofmay occur Friday before changing over to all snow Friday nightand early Saturday. Strong winds, with gusts of 50 to 65 mph, willdevelop across northeast Wyoming and northwest South DakotaSaturday, resulting in widespread blizzard conditions. Snowfallamounts around a foot are possible along and north of Interstate90, with up to two feet possible in the northern Black Hills. Travel could become impossible late Friday night through Saturdaynight. Even though the snow will end Saturday night, snow packedand icy roads will still be found across the area on Sunday.Persons planning travel over the weekend should consider alternateplans.Nice! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 NOAA:There is some uncertainty inregards to lower level thermal profiles during the early Sundaymorning hours especially north of I-69, thus dictating theprecipitation type and related amounts. There may be a period oflight freezing and/or snowfall across the Thumb where surface airtemperatures may fall below freezing allowing for some accumulationpotential. There is a fair amount of model spread during this time,but impacts look minimal at this point. Temperatures warm up abovefreezing throughout Sunday morning and into the 40s by the afternoonwith rain as the p-type for most of southeast Michigan for the dayperiod. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted November 28, 2019 Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 Starting to get some frozen precip here in Des Moines. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 NOAA:There is some uncertainty inregards to lower level thermal profiles during the early Sundaymorning hours especially north of I-69, thus dictating theprecipitation type and related amounts. There may be a period oflight freezing and/or snowfall across the Thumb where surface airtemperatures may fall below freezing allowing for some accumulationpotential. There is a fair amount of model spread during this time,but impacts look minimal at this point. Temperatures warm up abovefreezing throughout Sunday morning and into the 40s by the afternoonwith rain as the p-type for most of southeast Michigan for the dayperiod. Wow, that's disappointing. I thought things would trend colder/cold enough for at least portions of SEMI to get some snow action. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Wow, that's disappointing. I thought things would trend colder/cold enough for at least portions of SEMI to get some snow action. Who knows amigo....maybe models will change their minds tomorrow, but for now, its looking like an rainevent. Problem is, there isn't any cold air around. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 A batch of SLR snow maps to Sunday afternoon for comparison (12z/18z as available today): Euro: GEM: GFS: ICON: NAM: 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Models are leaning towards NEMI scoring best with this one. Only the GEM & NAM really put significant snows further south in the Mitt. They must be running a tick or two colder aloft, as well as further south with the SLP, avoiding the dry slot all the other models show. Oh well, won't be an epic deal for NWMI but it will be nice to see whatever does come down. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 NAM coming in farther south and a little bit colder... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 A batch of SLR snow maps to Sunday afternoon for comparison (12z/18z as available today): Euro: 20191124 12z EuroHR_snowfall_h078.png GEM: 20191128 12zGEM SLR Snowfall h78.png GFS: 20191128 12z GFS h78 SLR Snowfall.png ICON: 20191128 18z ICON h78.png NAM: 20191128 18z nam h78 snowfall SLR.pngSoooo....anywhere from 2” to 16” here. That’s one heck of a tough forecast. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Almost all 18z GEFS members disagree with the GFS. That’s special. GEFS mean near 12” here while the GFS has 5”. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 A batch of SLR snow maps to Sunday afternoon for comparison (12z/18z as available today): Euro: 20191124 12z EuroHR_snowfall_h078.png GEM: 20191128 12zGEM SLR Snowfall h78.png GFS: 20191128 12z GFS h78 SLR Snowfall.png ICON: 20191128 18z ICON h78.png NAM: 20191128 18z nam h78 snowfall SLR.pngNam gives me near 5" GEM not bad either...3-4" None of the offices are calling for any snow here. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Almost all 18z GEFS members disagree with the GFS. That’s special. GEFS mean near 12” here while the GFS has 5”. Yeah, GEFS looked solid, just forgot to post that one. GFS/ICON seem to be the warm solutions, with most others much more favorable for yby over to the Mitt. 0z NAM: SLR Kuchera Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Nam gives me near 5" GEM not bad either...3-4" None of the offices are calling for any snow here. You could deal with a "surprise", right? NOBODY was calling for 12" a few days prior to Vet's Day, were they?? (k, different scenario but makes my point) Meanwhile, reading MQT's AFD, they're like "looks like your routine 6-10 event to keep your blower from getting bored" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Per Izzi @ LOT, Tom's magnet may just work a charm Sunday.. By Sunday, guidance has the mid-upper level low moving acrossnorthern IL with 500mb low progged to deepen to sub-530dm, whichis in the 95-99th percentile for 500mb heights this time of year.Very cold air aloft with this upper low (nearly -30C at 500mb)will help contribute to steep low and mid level lapse ratesSunday. While model guidance is not particularly aggressive withQPF values Sunday, the steep lapse rates/weak stability does haveme concerned that there could be some potentially moderate toheavy convective snow showers around somewhere in the region. Atthis distance, its hard to pin down where small scale shortwaveswill be pivoting around this cyclone, so hard to see who standsthe greatest risk of seeing some potential for accumulating snow.At this point it could be anywhere from central or southern WIdown to maybe central IL. Our area looks to certainly be wellwithin this envelope, so we will need to keep an eye on Sunday.While forecast guidance surface temps appear marginal for snowSunday, the convective nature of the precip would probably allowfor precip to flip to all snow, especially with some slightevaporative cooling in the boundary layer. The convective natureof precip raises the possibility for perhaps even some graupelwith any stronger convective cells.Could be some snow showers, maybe enough to accumulate a bit, intoSunday night and perhaps Monday morning on the backside of thisupper low. Thermally, it could be cold enough for some lakeenhancement of the snow showers into northwest Indiana. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 I see the 0z GFS is trending a bit south with the heaviest snows here. 5.5” here and over 17” three counties to the north. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Now getting within it's range, the NAM GFS is showing much better snows across NMI 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 You could deal with a "surprise", right? NOBODY was calling for 12" a few days prior to Vet's Day, were they?? (k, different scenario but makes my point) Meanwhile, reading MQT's AFD, they're like "looks like your routine 6-10 event to keep your blower from getting bored" You are right about that. Yes. Who knows...maybe another 12" for mby again 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Yuck! Suddenly GEM goes "iffy" with thermals and keeps NWMI a mixy mess early Sunday when it had +SN before at that time stamp. SPS gets a little bit of sleet, but still does well. (each model showing it's weaknesses at various ranges I suppose) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 0z GEM still insisting on over a foot for the metro. Forecasters nightmare scenario with this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Yuck! Suddenly GEM goes "iffy" with thermals and keeps NWMI a mixy mess early Sunday when it had +SN before at that time stamp. SPS gets a little bit of sleet, but still does well. (each model showing it's weaknesses at various ranges I suppose) 20191129 0z GEM h60.png Go figure. Still dishes out a solid snow hit across NMI. Can only guess then that 1 minute after that time stamp, the mix flipped to SNOW 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Cmon, let's go Canada! All jokes aside this is indeed a nightmare for forecasters... Current range in the point is 4-12... Glad to see the NAM adjusting south throughout today's runs. Just gotta wait for the GFS to cave at this point. Current MSP thinking is that they will only issue 2 separate advisories for the metro as opposed to a winter storm warning. They are thinking too much rain will occur between rounds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Yuck! Suddenly GEM goes "iffy" with thermals and keeps NWMI a mixy mess early Sunday when it had +SN before at that time stamp. SPS gets a little bit of sleet, but still does well. (each model showing it's weaknesses at various ranges I suppose) 20191129 0z GEM h60.png Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 RGEM came in a good deal south as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Everybody do the south chachacha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro looks to have dipped a touch south as well. 9.5 at 10:1 for MSP, not sure what Kuchera looks like given temps are going to likely be an issue. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 03z SREF's... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Blizzard Warnings expanded into parts on N NE as another Beast of a storm is take aim across the northern Sub. Boy, what I would do to be able to experience what Duluth, MN is about to endure.... Blizzard WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Duluth MN326 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2019...STRONG WINTER STORM ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LEAVES SUNDAY....A slow-moving winter storm will bring heavy snow and high windsto the region tonight through Sunday afternoon. If the forecast iscorrect, this could be a top 10 two day snowfall event for theregion.MNZ020-037-292130-/O.UPG.KDLH.WS.A.0009.191130T0000Z-191201T2200Z//O.NEW.KDLH.BZ.W.0002.191130T1200Z-191201T1800Z/Southern Lake-Carlton and South St. Louis-Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Duluth326 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2019...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO NOON CSTSUNDAY...* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of12 to 20 inches, except 16 to 24 inches for the higher terrainof the North Shore. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.Visibilities will frequently drop below a quarter of a mile.* WHERE...Southern Lake and Carlton and South St. LouisCounties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Fond du LacBand.* WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday.* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Blowingsnow will significantly reduce visibilities.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions will largely be foundwithin 5 to 10 miles inland of Lake Superior. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Let's not forget about what is currently transpiring in the desert SW as the mountains of AZ are expecting to see a potential Top 5 Nov snowfall, especially across the Flagstaff region. The Snowbowl Ski Resort is expecting to see FEET of snow over this holiday weekend. Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Flagstaff AZ308 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2019AZZ004-006-007-015-300700-/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-191130T0700Z/Kaibab Plateau-Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-Western Mogollon Rim-Including the cities of Jacob Lake, Fredonia,Grand Canyon Village, Valle, and Flagstaff308 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2019...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MSTTONIGHT ABOVE 4500 FEET...* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow occurring. Travel will bevery difficult to impossible. Tree branches could fall as well.Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with localizedamounts up to 26 inches over the highest mountain peaks, areexpected. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Build the glacier up north!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Latest NAM keeps basically everything north of the metro. I am having a hard time trying to work through its solution. Is that a giant dry slot that is causing the havoc? 850's appear to be fine most of the time. Just looks like QPF gets lowered this run.Edit: After further thought it must be a dry slot, there is quite the sharp cutoff between the haves and have nots. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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