Christmas Blizzard 12/20 - 12/28

[hawkstwelve]

12z NAM has corrected itself and is no longer way off to the NW. Looks closer to the other solutions now. It's still snowing at the end of the run. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z RGEM with a jump west. I went from 9 inches to 1. 

[Tom]

12z GFS...

[hawkstwelve]

12z GFS with just a slight nudge west while the 12z CMC had a big jump west. At this rate it's going to end up back west of the Missouri, closer to where it initially showed. E SD/NE better hope for a last minute correction the other way otherwise we are looking at a little bit of snow and a whole bunch of ice if these trends continue. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z GEFS mean did not move at all in either direction, just increased totals pretty much across the board.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GFS...

Very similar to the Euro. 

[CentralNebWeather]

28 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS with just a slight nudge west while the 12z CMC had a big jump west. At this rate it's going to end up back west of the Missouri, closer to where it initially showed. E SD/NE better hope for a last minute correction the other way otherwise we are looking at a little bit of snow and a whole bunch of ice if these trends continue. 

As Jim Flowers always talks about, he calls dry air the wicked witch of the East. @gabel23has also mentioned it. Models might be seeing that. Still much can change in the next few days. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Getting some surprise rain this morning as of 10:30. Blustery and 41 degrees. Should be an interesting next 4 days. Good news, no traveling for us. My brother and his family from KC are here this weekend for Christmas. They are heading back late morning tomorrow before any frozen precipitation is expected. 

[Bryan1117]

50 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Getting some surprise rain this morning as of 10:30. Blustery and 41 degrees. Should be an interesting next 4 days. Good news, no traveling for us. My brother and his family from KC are here this weekend for Christmas. They are heading back late morning tomorrow before any frozen precipitation is expected. 

We have been socked in with very dense fog all morning here in Omaha. At 4:00am there was near zero visibility in my area… usually dense fog in December seems to be a precursor to either big ice storms or snow storms around here. At the very least it means we shouldn’t have any issue getting decent rain and frozen precip these next few days.

I am going into this expecting just a bit of snow/ice, as I refuse to get too excited again for a winter storm around here (been burned too many times the last 2+ years).

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro moved slightly SW with the heaviest snow. CentralNeb is near the sweet spot. 

Not liking the ice aspect of this storm. I'd much rather have it just be rain if the snow isn't going to work out. Freezing rain is one of my least favorite types of weather.

I remember last year there was an event where the models, namely the Euro and CMC, showed a crippling ice storm and we ended up getting mostly snow. Practically every model is showing it now so it'll most likely happen but hopefully they're overdoing the extent of accumulation.

[CentralNebWeather]

42 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro moved slightly SW with the heaviest snow. CentralNeb is near the sweet spot. 

Not liking the ice aspect of this storm. I'd much rather have it just be rain if the snow isn't going to work out. Freezing rain is one of my least favorite types of weather.

I remember last year there was an event where the models, namely the Euro and CMC, showed a crippling ice storm and we ended up getting mostly snow. Practically every model is showing it now so it'll most likely happen but hopefully they're overdoing the extent of accumulation.

Been at another Christmas, so I haven’t been able to check. My gosh. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z EMC GEFS plumes had a big jump in the p-type snow percentage. Sioux Falls went from 67% chance of snow to 97%. Snow becomes the dominant p-type starting Christmas Eve through more or less the end of the event. It also keeps ice potential minimized to under 20%. That sure would be nice.

Charts for Omaha, Grand Island, and Fort Dodge included below. All of these sites either had similar probabilities last run or slightly higher now.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Winter Storm Watch. Whoa. 

[CentralNebWeather]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
124 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POTENTIAL ON CHRISTMAS DAY...

.The potential for major winter storm to impact south central
Nebraska on Christmas Day and Tuesday appears to be increasing.
Snowfall will ramp up in earnest on Christmas Day and continue into
the day Tuesday. North winds gusting over 40 mph will cause blowing
and drifting snow with near blizzard conditions possible. While
there is still some uncertainty, do not take this storm lightly and
plan accordingly the next few days.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Long range of dates for the storm to pass through

[jaster220]

44 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Long range of dates for the storm to pass through

It's a creeping Low. As @Andie said, some Peeps spend Christmas in Cut-offs (SLPs).

[hawkstwelve]

I'm riding the line so fine that the 18z 12km NAM shows me getting sleet/freezing rain while the 3km NAM keeps it as all snow. By 6pm Christmas night, the former has me at 3.4 inches while the latter has me at 9.1 inches. 

Assuming the models are starting to dial in on a slightly more W/SW solution, Sioux Falls will be cutting it so close it will probably be a nowcast situation based solely off temperature profiles once the event gets underway. One thing is for sure - I do not envy the NWS or local mets who have to forecast the storm in this area. The slightest of differences will have the hugest of impacts and it comes at time when many people are traveling. Talk about a tricky, hair-pulling, high stakes forecast.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z EPS

[hawkstwelve]

18z GFS expanding snow westward while also maintaining snow on the east line a bit better. Practically the entirety of both SD and NE are snow covered by Wednesday. Northern KS ain't looking half bad either.

[Bryan1117]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS expanding snow westward while also maintaining snow on the east line a bit better. Practically the entirety of both SD and NE are snow covered by Wednesday. Northern KS ain't looking half bad either.

Good lord, Eastern Nebraska is riding the edge as always… looks like this could be another situation where the east side of a county could get very little while the west side gets dumped on… at least it’s nice that the models are coming out with similar solutions now. Expect the unexpected with this system!

[gabel23]

I’m not freaking out. I’m not freaking out…..

on another note, it just has the feel something major is about to happen. We have had the dense fog the past couple days and now fog rolling back in. I’m hoping for a Christmas miracle!

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:  

The NWS in Hastings encourages everyone with travel plains in
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas too look hard
at their plans and adjust accordingly for maximum safety. That
should include altering the timing of your trip away from most
of the day Monday and Tuesday.

 

[Bryan1117]

3 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

I’m not freaking out. I’m not freaking out…..

on another note, it just has the feel something major is about to happen. We have had the dense fog the past couple days and now fog rolling back in. I’m hoping for a Christmas miracle!

Gabel, my thoughts exactly… dense fog seems to correlate with winter storms arriving 48 to 72 hours later. Fingers crossed that this idea stays true… not counting on anything until the snow is actually flying.

[gabel23]

2 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Gabel, my thoughts exactly… dense fog seems to correlate with winter storms arriving 48 to 72 hours later. Fingers crossed that this idea stays true… not counting on anything until the snow is actually flying.

Pulling for you guys! Typically when Omaha does well so does my area!! I’m holding off the cheering until we actually see something flying too! 

[gabel23]

11 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:  

The NWS in Hastings encourages everyone with travel plains in
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas too look hard
at their plans and adjust accordingly for maximum safety. That
should include altering the timing of your trip away from most
of the day Monday and Tuesday.

 

Here’s what I take away from that disco and all I have to say is wow!! 15-20 hours of snow?!? 
 

Bottom line is a moisture laden, large upper low will be
energized by some backside cold air (baroclinicity) late Sunday
night and Monday night. All the moisture will set up a trowel-
like structure and ride around the top of the low and down the
backside, potentially setting most of south central Nebraska up
for an 15-20 hour period of deformation axis snowfall, with
rates at times 1" per or more. The heaviest snow would fall from
midday Monday until early Tuesday. Add into the forecast, the
deepening nature of the low scaling up backside north winds. We
are forecasting wind gusts of 25-45 mph with some gusts to 50
mph possible both Monday and Tuesday. Needless to say, the combo
of wind and snow has major winter storm potential, over a major
holiday, and could induce blizzard-like conditions at times.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Definitely looking like an ice storm at worst, rain storm at best for AXN. I'm actually glad I'm not gonna be home for this if this is how it's going to turn out.

[CentralNebWeather]

[CentralNebWeather]

18z Euro. Not much change. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Clinton]

EAX still forecasting a big rain and some talk of Flakes.

[Clinton]

0z NAM has good look for Nebraska folks and @hawkstwelve

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings and North Platte are really putting out messaging on how dangerous this storm could be in the coming days. Almost for sure disrupting of travel, closed roads, blizzard conditions. Warning people to change travel plans. Many people traveling on Christmas Day and after. Thank goodness we are not leaving the house after tomorrow evening’s Christmas Eve service. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

00z RGEM is further west. Get nothing but ice and cold rain here. 00z FV3 also further SW. Sioux Falls went from 7.8 inches on the 12z to 1 inch. 00z ICON is under an inch now. 00z NAM is really the only model showing appreciable snowfall here now and even that was cut in half from the previous runs. I feel like it's been playing catchup this whole time.

Not good trends for my area at all on the 00z suite so far. Still another 24-36 hours for a quick turnaround I guess. It wouldn't take much of an adjustment and a white christmas could still be on the table. 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z EPS 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

Yeah, bad trends across the board for here. Man, that kinda sucks. I'll say it's a good thing we are hosting a Christmas Eve party tomorrow and I won't be able to check models as much as I think I need a breather from model riding. In the meantime, I hope it turns around. 

[jcwxguy]