Christmas Blizzard 12/20 - 12/28

[james1976]

5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah, bad trends across the board for here. Man, that kinda sucks. I'll say it's a good thing we are hosting a Christmas Eve party tomorrow and I won't be able to check models as much as I think I need a breather from model riding. In the meantime, I hope it turns around. 

Yup enjoy the holiday. Plenty more opportunities ahead. Winter has just begun. And you never know...you might get lucky!

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

0z Euro.  Another great run for much of Nebraska. 

[Bryan1117]

20 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z Euro.  Another great run for much of Nebraska. 

Except for far Eastern Nebraska… once again this is not a surprise. Need a Christmas miracle at this point in Omaha.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

That's going to be an incredible storm, the perfect Christmas gift! 

[Clinton]

6z GFS even throws some table scraps my way.

 

[Clinton]

Good chance for some rainfall records to be broke around my area.

[CentralNebWeather]

06z Euro 

[jaster220]

[jaster220]

[Tom]

6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

0z Euro.  Another great run for much of Nebraska. 

#BlizzardMagnet...once again, you must have dusted off the good ol' magnet...wow, what a turn of events over the last few days watching the models evolve.  The Euro really sniffed out this Beast 5+ days out and started to really hone in a few days ago.  Congrats on what has literally become a "Christmas Miracle" for most of Nebraska and South Dakota.  

I see the Blizzard Warning starts right on cue...at midnight, during Christmas Mass...well, if the churches even have them open due to the weather conditions....nevertheless, the kiddos will be blessed with a major winter storm.  Gosh, can you imagine how the kids must feel knowing a major snowstorm is coming on Christmas???  A memory that will stick with them forever. Good luck to you and I hope the rest of our NE members somehow can cash in on the wrap around snows.  After years of using the models to track these powerful cutoff beasts, even the High Rez models inside 24 hours don't handle the precip type and precip shield.  I'd say to those who are sitting on the edge, don't loose hope just yet!

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

06 EPS. Probably more realistic amounts in my opinion. We’ll see. These are 10:1 ratios. 

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

Made a change to the title....It's the most wonderful time of the year....Merry Christmas Everyone!

[hawkstwelve]

Taking a break from the models and tracking snow so I'm going to discuss another aspect of this storm: very beneficial rain. Between yesterday and so far today, we have received 0.70 inches of rainfall. That's our highest two-day total since October 12/13. We have now quickly shot to receiving 84% of our normal December rainfall after sitting at 8% of normal for most of the month. This is so badly needed and so very nice to see! 

 

[Clinton]

24 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Taking a break from the models and tracking snow so I'm going to discuss another aspect of this storm: very beneficial rain. Between yesterday and so far today, we have received 0.70 inches of rainfall. That's our highest two-day total since October 12/13. We have now quickly shot to receiving 84% of our normal December rainfall after sitting at 8% of normal for most of the month. This is so badly needed and so very nice to see! 

 

I'm likely to finish December 250% of average.  This patten has really delivered some big rains.

[Hawkeye]

It's not often systems get as wrapped-up as this one is going to get.  The Euro has the surface low beginning to develop in northern Missouri and ending up almost in central Nebraska.

Models have settled into a 0.50-0.80" range for my area.

[CentralNebWeather]

I think my guess will be correct in that we will be at the lower range of snowfall forecasts. Models have trended a little less this morning, but I’ll still take it. NWS Hastings agrees with me.

[CentralNebWeather]

Of course after I send the previous post, the RAP model to 51 hours puts out these amounts  Probably more surprises upcoming in the next 48 hours. 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Of course after I send the previous post, the RAP model to 51 hours puts out these amounts  Probably more surprises upcoming in the next 48 hours. 

I feel there will be some surprises upcoming from this system out to the west… we are riding the edge here in East Central Nebraska once again so I kind of have a bad feeling how it will work out.

Thankful for the 0.45” of rain that fell this morning, it was nice to be woken up by some loud claps of thunder. Even woke up the kids… haha!

Merry Christmas Eve to everyone!

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro. Looks good to me. 

[CentralNebWeather]

8 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

I feel there will be some surprises upcoming from this system out to the west… we are riding the edge here in East Central Nebraska once again so I kind of have a bad feeling how it will work out.

Thankful for the 0.45” of rain that fell this morning, it was nice to be woken up by some loud claps of thunder. Even woke up the kids… haha!

Merry Christmas Eve to everyone!

Some models show more for Eastern Nebraska, then another model is almost nothing. Seems like the amount of dry air, and if there is a mixing issue is what is causing these swings for your area. Good luck and Merry Christmas. Off to two different services, as my wife is in a musical choir. She is a very good flute player. 

[Bryan1117]

15 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Some models show more for Eastern Nebraska, then another model is almost nothing. Seems like the amount of dry air, and if there is a mixing issue is what is causing these swings for your area. Good luck and Merry Christmas. Off to two different services, as my wife is in a musical choir. She is a very good flute player. 

Enjoy the services and the music today, above all else I am glad most of us are getting appreciable rainfall/ moisture this weekend. At this point any snow or ice we get tonight and tomorrow will be a bonus (maybe we get lucky and get something decent too). 

[CentralNebWeather]

[CentralNebWeather]

12z EPS

[CentralNebWeather]

18z HRRR. Still snowing at 48 hours 

[KTPmidMO]

12z NAM looking quite a bit further south and east with the snow field at hour 27?

[KTPmidMO]

Also congrats to everyone that is gonna get smashed with this thing on Christmas, that's awesome!!

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

12z NAM looking quite a bit further south and east with the snow field at hour 27?

Both NAM’s seem more juiced. 

[Tom]

The Fog has lifted and the sun is poking out...its a Winter's day in the Valley of the Sun (56F)....I didn't see anyone post the UKIE so here it is...

[Tom]

The radar will be fun to watch where the meso scale banding sets up as the low retrogrades west and then SE into N MO...

[CentralNebWeather]

18z 3km NAM

[CentralNebWeather]

Drove to church. 30 degrees at 3 pm. Combination of snow/sleet/graupel falling. Not heavy yet, but streets will only go downhill from here. It begins. 

[gabel23]

I'm surprised I''ve been upgraded to a blizzard warning. The Low looks to go right over me darn near. Typically winds and precip aren't as much. I'm gonna be riding a fine line. I feel bad for those of you to the east; just missing out is horrible. I did pick up .50" of rain; this month will end up well above normal so that's huge!

I'm trying to figure out what's best for my family. We have christmas in David City tomorrow and we are trying to figure out whether to leave after mass tonight or risk driving through it tomorrow morning. 

[Bryan1117]

Now over an inch of rainfall today in my backyard… temperature is dropping a little more quickly than expected, now down to 38 (from a high of 55 at 12:30).

Models seem to be trending better here in my area, it’s now looking like we could see up to 5-6 inches of snow per the NAM (Western Sarpy county). Crazy to see the model spitting out 6” along the Platte River/ western county line and only 2” along the Missouri River/ eastern county line… preparing to either be surprised or disappointed.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Excuse the very crude map, done on mobile, but my first guess on this system for my area 

[CentralNebWeather]

Getting icy. Moisture blowing sideways. Snowflakes mixing in. Won’t be much longer until it gets rough around here.