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1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

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hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

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We are a part of some local groups on FB, including some school related/moms groups. There have been new posts over the past hour or two since the NWS upgraded to a winter storm warning about how nobody had any idea a snowstorm was even possible. Lots of surprised people who are now trying to figure out what they're going to do with their kids once school closes (although oddly, it hasn't yet) and getting to work and stuff. Weathermen getting a bad rap again. 

I figured this would happen given the slowness to react by the local media and NWS. My wife is convinced I should start a FB page and spread local weather info so that people can know what might be coming a little more. She thinks it's an under-served market here, unlike Seattle where there are weather enthusiasts posting everywhere. I don't know. Either way, this storm wasn't handled the best up here. 

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Tom
Tom

Hello from Pinetop, AZ!  We took a last minute Father and son trip up to the mountains this morning.  This has been one hellova storm up here and it continues for the remainder of the day.  I’ll post

gabel23
gabel23

It’s absolutely ripping out there wow!! Started at 830 and picked up 3” in those two hours.  IMG_3055.mov

gabel23
gabel23

Picked up 5” in three hours so far! 

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Bryan1117 Mentor

Bryan1117

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

You can tell a storm is coming. Gusty east/southeast winds bringing in moisture. 
I don’t think there is anything going to be open around here tomorrow. Every school district is closed. 

There’s definitely that feel in the air here too… haven’t had this feeling of a big storm coming in like this in several years. 

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Andie Grand Master

Andie

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50*, Humidity 62% Dewpt 32

Change not here yet but I’m sure it will show up 4-5am. 
High tomorrow 54 with rain.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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OttumwaSnomow Mentor

OttumwaSnomow

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All I can say is cha-ching!!!  Im even more thrilled for the dent this winter is putting in our  drought.! That being said I wont be at all surprised  if the bullseye  lollipops  are Marshalltown  to  cuad cities. Ive seen these go north north north often.

1704682110515_2174566872570670.png

Screenshot_20240107_205643_Gallery.jpg

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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NWS Hastings update (they are seeing the latest trends):

UPDATE... Issued at 814 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024 Forecast remains largely on-track for the winter storm impacting the area tomorrow. Very little snow is expected before 6am, with snow quickly ramping up by 8-9am. 1 to 2" per hour snow rates are likely at times through the morning. Near-term models (HRRR/RAP) have continued to be quite bullish regarding precipitation/snow amounts through Monday night. If these trends hold, the forecast snow totals could trend up a bit more tonight. One minor change was the addition of slight thunderstorm chances Monday morning, mainly in just northern Kansas. Short-term guidance has been showing 100-300 J of MUCAPE in this area which, combined with strong lift, would be sufficient for a few rumbles of thunder.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
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56 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

It’s still giving me 7”.  We aren’t going to see more than 2”.   It’s been bad.  

Even the HOT NAM Kuchera maps showing 5" for you in N Kent. May never be that much on the level due to warmth. Reminds me of the Feb 2016 strong storm that had marginal temps. I got 11.6" in Marshall and had about 8" OTG after all the melt and compaction. Had the temps been low 20s, that would've been a 15+ Big Dog. Right now, I sit in a more favorable position here in the Northland. Also curious to see if my increased elevation helps out at all? There is about a 350 foot increase from the south end of the county. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

snowfall_acc-imp.us_c.png

I'm not sure how the model blend is coming up with 11" in Cedar Rapids.  I don't think there is a single model showing that much.  Using Kuchera, most models are 6-7".

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I really think this is probably pretty realistic of what we will see. Unless you get under an intense band with convection. NWS is saying 1-2” an hour rates are possible. If that occurs, it could be amazing. 

Looking at the models, this SLP comes off the mountain west just explodes with puking snow rates. Crazy. Not sure why even. It deepens up our way but loses that heaviest precip pattern pretty quickly. Thump snows I've seen only a handful of times in all my years. Should be a great event (#2) out your way.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Yep, not a boring blank CONUS map any more, is it? #webeactivewx

24-01-0810pmNWSUSCWAHazardsMap.png.91dba7a1acc97e3deee1d95c6e79c1ca.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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Posted

0z NAM has the LOW about 300 miles north of where this morning's GEM had it at 7 pm Tuesday evening.

2024-01-080zNAMh48.thumb.png.63d9ec19fe82b9e9a7dc26a5c26445cd.png 

 
  • Snow 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Jaycee_CHI Apprentice

Jaycee_CHI

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Posted

Okay Omaha take your dome back please! 😅 

Chicago is absolutely riding the edge for this, which sucks because I was planning on doing a photo shoot with the big flakes flying!😭 
 

It’s definitely a nowcast event for sure with where the low ends up tracking around here, but hoping they at least give us a WWA. Otherwise, definitely not our storm. I feel the same as you guys in KC, at least we can just FOMO together 🖤

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

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Posted
Just now, Jayhawker85 said:

One thing that I’m confused about this storm is that it’s taking the perfect track along the KS/OK border and into central Mo but KC is still too far south to get into the defo band. It just seems odd…

Models for the south and west side of this storm are still all over the place.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

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Posted

The GDPS continues to not even show warning snow across eastern Iowa.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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hawkstwelve Grand Master

hawkstwelve

Posted
Posted

NWS with an update at 9PM. Upped totals for tonight's portion of the storm from 2-4 to 3-5 inches in the zone forecast. They mention 4-8 inches below. School is now closed for tomorrow. 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

Virga has already developed along the 850 mb front across
northeastern Nebraska. We are seeing ceilings slow fall as the
atmosphere begins to saturated - from over 12 kft near KYKN to
around 5 kft near Ord NE. As an short wave moves north late
this evening, the frontal circulation is expected to intensify
near the SD/NE border with snow develop by midnight in this
area. GFS, RAP and NAM all show the an elevated weakly unstable
layer above 800 mb that develops as this front move slowly
northward toward I-90. Heavy snowfall is likely to develop after
midnight with snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour possible as this
band slowly move northward. These snowfall rates can quickly
create very hazardous travel as roads become snowcovered. This
band will slowly weaken during the late morning as it moves
north of Hwy 14 and the first wave moves east resulting in the
frontal circulation weakening.

With the expected strength of this first band of snow, have
raised snowfall totals from 06Z-18Z with generally 4-8" expected
by noon Monday from Lake Andes to Sioux Falls to Marshall MN.
The heaviest snowfall with this first band will look to be in
the Sioux Falls area which is likely to make the morning
commute extremely hazardous.

No changes were made after 18Z but there remains uncertainty on
the exactly location of the second area of snow expected to
develop. Most areas east of a line from Lake Andes to Brookings
can expected an additional 3-6" of snow.
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Andie Grand Master

Andie

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Posted

DFW area has a wind warning in affect beginning 4am through tomorrow at 6. 
This is acting like a Spring storm.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

snku_acc-imp.us_c.png

That map goes through Thursday morning and includes the next wave of snow not associated with this storm.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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