2024 ENSO Outlook

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I thought 2010-11 was the top or second strongest, but I may be mistaken. 

Know it was the coldest the Pacific had been overall in decades at one point. 

I guess it depends on the source, but most sources have 1973-74 and 1988-89 as the top 2, with each reaching -1.8 to -2C. 2010-11 is in the next group, along with 2007-08 and 1999-2000, as consensus strong la ninas, that reached -1.6 or -1.7C. Then, you have 1955-56, 1975-76, and 1998-99, which are on the moderate/strong border, closer to -1.5C.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On 3/16/2024 at 10:15 PM, Cloud said:

Updated charts. Niña seems like a sure thing at this point. Cooler ocean temps taking over.

JJA timeframe is much improved for Niña conditions. 
 

 

We will be so greatly blessed!

[BLI snowman]

On 3/16/2024 at 10:15 PM, Cloud said:

Updated charts. Niña seems like a sure thing at this point. Cooler ocean temps taking over.

JJA timeframe is much improved for Niña conditions. 
 

 

Weak to moderate event seems the most likely outcome. Always are a few ENSO models that go off the deep end at this time of the year with any event.

[gimmesnow]

23-24 was catastrophic. We need a good winter here, winter sports in the midwest are struggling this year. Ski resorts are already crying about getting federal funding to save them and some of them lost close to a million dollars this year between expenses and lost revenue. I just got back from Lutsen Resort, all the runs without snowmaking were closed. They were at 20in of total snow for the season before the snow this week, normally see 120in. Even with this late storm, they have no base on their other runs so nothing else is gonna open.

I've got my indy ski pass for next year so I'm really hoping I can use it a lot more next year. It's so far away though...

[PhiEaglesfan712]

List of El Nino to La Nina transition years (bolded are best analog years for 2024-25)

1954: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Strong La Nina in 1955-56)

1964: Moderate El Nino -> Weak La Nina

1970: Weak El Nino (preceded by Moderate El Nino in 1968-69) -> Moderate La Nina

1973: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina

1983: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (followed by Moderate La Nina in 1984-85)

1988: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina

1995: Moderate El Nino -> Moderate La Nina

1998: Super El Nino -> Strong La Nina (repeated in 1999-2000)

2005: Weak El Nino -> Weak La Nina

2007: Weak El Nino -> Strong La Nina

2010: Strong El Nino -> Strong La Nina

2016: Super El Nino -> Weak La Nina (repeated in 2017-18)

2020: Maybe Weak El Nino (preceded by Weak El Nino in 2018-19) -> Moderate La Nina (repeated in 2021-22 and 2022-23)

[Cloud]

Latest ENSO outlook per CPC NCEP NOAA. 
 

-Equatorial above average SSTs continues to weaken last 4 weeks. 

-60% chance of Niña developing June-August. 

I believe base on how things are transitioning. We’ll be looking at weak-moderate Niña. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weak to moderate event looks likely. I'm thinking moderate, though weak would be okay by me. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On 3/25/2024 at 6:39 AM, gimmesnow said:

23-24 was catastrophic. We need a good winter here, winter sports in the midwest are struggling this year. Ski resorts are already crying about getting federal funding to save them and some of them lost close to a million dollars this year between expenses and lost revenue. I just got back from Lutsen Resort, all the runs without snowmaking were closed. They were at 20in of total snow for the season before the snow this week, normally see 120in. Even with this late storm, they have no base on their other runs so nothing else is gonna open.

I've got my indy ski pass for next year so I'm really hoping I can use it a lot more next year. It's so far away though...

Federal funding for a ski resort... Sounds absurd, but I can see our pols doing this.

[snow_wizard]

Nino 3 is down to -0.078 now.