Jump to content

February 2014 Observations and Discussion

Geos

By Geos
in East of the Rockies

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Niko
Niko

I have noticed that there are some people on here who have just had enough of this harch, long winter that we've been having and I dont get why they want this winter to end.. We have been having such

Tom
Tom

Definitely a much more organized system this run. Let's hope the trend continues in future runs.  This could become a monster.  Temps in low 20's and loads of moisture with this system.  Snow ratios w

Tom
Tom

Could we say...Here Blizzard Blizzard Blizzard???    

Posted Images

Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

The system next Fri/Sat has so much potential to become a blockbuster...very dynamic system.  It looks like it may even go neg tilt.  Lot's of time to watch this but this is most likely going to be a major storm with a strong jet stream and ample moisture from a wide open Gulf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

Posted
Posted

The system next Fri/Sat has so much potential to become a blockbuster...very dynamic system.  It looks like it may even go neg tilt.  Lot's of time to watch this but this is most likely going to be a major storm with a strong jet stream and ample moisture from a wide open Gulf.

Gary lezak mentioned that's the storm to watch in his blog this morning. I'm hoping that storm has central plains written all over it, according to the LRC we should see a transition to a southwesterly flow around that time frame.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sciascia Explorer

Sciascia

Posted
Posted

Just for some kicks, here's the 18z GFS fantasy-land (123-384hr) roundup:

-Has the warmth (upper 30s-low 50s) sticking around from 2/18-2/24
-Big cold returns 2/26
-1002mb low tracks through Central Indiana at 372hr, strengthening to a 994mb low in extreme NE MI at 384hr. Dumps a foot of snow in this area.

This has been your fantasy land roundup. :P

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Geos Proficient

Geos

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Looks like the ORD high was 31, that means the potential exists for a 17 day streak of below freezing when it finally warms up next Monday. 

 

I think Midway made it to 32°. Of course that's not the official station anymore. 

 

High of 30° here. Lost 1" of snow depth since Monday.

 

Looking like a freezing rain situation with temps above freezing on Monday.

 

Skilling's 7 day forecast.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

Posted
Posted

As much as it hurts me to say this, I think N IL/N IN see rain with next weekends system.  However, we will have several more chances for snow storms this month and into March.  You can't win them all.

I just want to win one! I must say gfs has been showing some pretty good cold in the extended going into March. I would say spring has a good chance of being pretty volatile around these parts, that's just my prediction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Gabel, the Plains may have their fair share of winter storms during the next 4-6 weeks.  CFS has the cold coming back from the Rockies east into the GL region where it has been cold all season long.  I would say your area gets hit by 1 or 2 storms before winter's over.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Nice to see it coming in colder for Monday/Tuesday...this could be a signal that lays down the frontal boundary farther south for next weeks bigger storm and could push trough farther east...but that's still to be determined.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Money Proficient

Money

Posted
Posted

GGEM colored maps

 

HR 84:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_084.jpg

 

HR 96

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg

 

HR 108

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_108.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sciascia Explorer

Sciascia

Posted
Posted

GFS keeps the warmth here pretty much from 126hr thru the end. Almost 70s in fantasy range. Amazing to see those in model runs during February, even if it is fantasy land.

Edit: Wait, I was going through the "maximum temperature map" and not the "above ground temperature" map. Colder temps come in later in GFS.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

The last and final visit of the PV at the end of the month???  Obviously, if there is no snow cover it won't matter too much and the fact its late season cold it won't pack as much of a punch as it did in January.  It certainly would fit the pattern we have had all season long.  Would be nice for all of us to cash in on that big storm next weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

00z GGEM has it all snow from I'd say the northern counties of IL, south of that it starts as snow, then mix, then back to snow.  Both GFS/GGEM are trending a little colder each run for N IL.  WI is in a great spot to see warning snows with the Mon system.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Money Proficient

Money

Posted
Posted

00z GGEM has it all snow from I'd say the northern counties of IL, south of that it starts as snow, then mix, then back to snow.  Both GFS/GGEM are trending a little colder each run for N IL.  WI is in a great spot to see warning snows with the Mon system.

 

See what the ukie/euro say and we'll probably have to make a thread for it. Trends are going the right direction though for sure. Only about 3-4 days out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

Posted
Posted

GFS is indeed a little cooler for next week. Still mid 30s, though, with some areas possibly reaching 40 in southern and western Iowa.

 

How warm the temps get next week will all depend on that storm. It definitely appears there is going to be a major storm somewhere. Someone could get some good snow, but if you are in the warm sector, you can probably say goodbye to the snow pack. Still a lot up in the air, gonna be interesting to see how this all unfolds. Either way, I don't really mind. If we get snow, well then I don't mind. If we get rain and warm temps, then I really won't mind either. Should make this fun to track.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

00z GGEM has the big storm next weekend way south...been a SE trend with this system.  Let's see what the Euro shows.  Just remember what I said about the LRC, it had a track last time thru N IL/N IN so I'm not really to enthusiastic for a snow event around here.  I've always thought this is going to be a IA/WI special.  If that trough can push farther south, therefore keep the frontal boundary farther south, we may have a chance around here but that is a Big IF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...