February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

Now we see the 12z Euro correct itself and fit the LRC pattern for next Fri/Sat system.  Not surprised at all...here are the 24 hour totals...looks like a CO LOW type system that cuts up the OV.

 

Should be a solid system. Won't cut that much with the hp to the nw but, should cut far enough to give someone in this region 4-6+ inches of snow if it stays like it is now.

[Tom]

This is turning out to be a beautiful weather pattern for snow lovers in our region instead of the misery that was being forecasted earlier.  They should teach the LRC in meteorology and other various weather pattern cycles in met school.

[WBadgersW]

I'm glad to see models trending colder for next week. I'd be fine if it was 50 and it was going to stay in the 50's, but it looks like it's going to get colder again.If thia is the case then  why not keep building upon the snowpack.

[Money]

GB AFD on the next 2 big systems (Thu and Sat/Sun)

 

THIS LITTLE SYSTEM SCOOTS TO THE EAST TUE EVENING AND ALLOWS FOR A
RDG OF HI PRES TO MOVE ACROSS WI ON WED. WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE
SOME SNOWMELT BY WED AS MAX TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 30S. MDLS ARE
STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON THE SECOND SYSTEM WHICH WOULD
IMPACT NE WI DURING THE WED NGT/THU TIME FRAME. THIS HAS ALL THE
LOOKS OF A PHASING/NO PHASING ISSUE WITH THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF FAVORING
NO PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN BRANCHES OF THE JET...THUS BRINGING
MAINLY LIGHT PCPN TO NE WI AS THE NRN STREAM MOVES ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. CONVERSELY...THE UKMET FAVORS A
PHASING SOLUTION WHICH WOULD BRING A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRES TO
WI ON THU WITH MUCH MORE PCPN AND POSSIBLE PCPN TYPE ISSUES. HARD
TO DISCERN WHICH MDL TREND IS CORRECT AT THIS JUNCTURE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE ECMWF SWITCHED CAMPS ON ITS 12Z RUN. HAVE TRENDED THE
FCST TOWARD THE MAJORITY SOLUTION HERE WHICH WOULD KEEP HEAVIER
PCPN EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF NE WI WITH MIXED PCPN POSSIBLE OVER
E-CNTRL WI.

AFTER A DRY FRI THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES...
SYSTEM #3 TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS NEXT SAT. DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE NEWLY DEVELOPED UPR TROF (ROCKIES VERSUS PLAINS)...
PCPN COULD ALREADY BE MOVING INTO NE WI BY SAT MORNING AS AN
INVERTED SFC TROF COMBINES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED NEWD OUT
OF THE UPR TROF. TEMPS APPEAR TO BE COLD ENUF BY THIS TIME FOR THE
PCPN TO FALL AS ALL SNOW AND WE WL HAVE TO WATCH THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

[james1976]

GFS no show for next weekend. so weird. that model can be a joke at times.

[Tom]

I listened to JB's Saturday video and his forecast for next winter has a higher probability of a west coast ridge again.  He used the winter of 1917-18 for his analogs this year and the following year 1918-19 had California in an extreme drought for back to back winters.  It does make sense since I looked at the JMA SST forecasts up till Fall of this year and it still had the warm pool in the NE Pacific.  Could we have another repeat winter like we had in '76-'77 & '77-78???  I think that is a good possibility.

[jaster220]

I listened to JB's Saturday video and his forecast for next winter has a higher probability of a west coast ridge again.  He used the winter of 1917-18 for his analogs this year and the following year 1918-19 had California in an extreme drought for back to back winters.  It does make sense since I looked at the JMA SST forecasts up till Fall of this year and it still had the warm pool in the NE Pacific.  Could we have another repeat winter like we had in '76-'77 & '77-78???  I think that is a good possibility.

 

Ya, this year feels so "That 70's Show" it wouldn't surprise me to see it go that way. Especially with Europe having had a stretch run of cold snowy winters while we had kinda the opposite going on.

[Iowawx]

00z GFS not showing much for next weekends storm.

[Tom]

Japan gets hit with another record setting snow storm this weekend...12" blanketed Tokyo.

 

Edit: The storm will be showing up on the models, just like this sneaky storm on Monday.

[Iowawx]

Japan gets hit with another record setting snow storm this weekend...12" blanketed Tokyo.

 

Edit: The storm will be showing up on the models, just like this sneaky storm on Monday.

Hopefully it can be a overachiever for us. We still need a 6+ inch event in Iowa. Have not had that at all this winter.

[Tom]

00z GFS bringing near subzero cold into WI and possibly N IL next Saturday/Sunday...maybe some more frigid days to come this month beyond next weekend.

[Tom]

00z GGEM still showing lower lakes cutter for next weekend...

[Tom]

Here is the full run...pretty impressive...

[Iowawx]

GGEM has been doing pretty good this winter. It appears that it nailed this weeks snow and cooler temps.

[Iowawx]

00z euro showing next weekends storm, but it is kind of weak compared to the GGEM.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I listened to JB's Saturday video and his forecast for next winter has a higher probability of a west coast ridge again.  He used the winter of 1917-18 for his analogs this year and the following year 1918-19 had California in an extreme drought for back to back winters.  It does make sense since I looked at the JMA SST forecasts up till Fall of this year and it still had the warm pool in the NE Pacific.  Could we have another repeat winter like we had in '76-'77 & '77-78???  I think that is a good possibility.

 

I wouldn't mind having a 1977-78 repeat for next year. That was a very wet year in CA after the record dryness of 1976-77, and yet it was very cold across much of the country like this year has been. Los Angeles recorded over 33" of rainfall that season.

[james1976]

DMX saying next weekend will be a weak and quick moving event.

[Money]

GFS says what torch? Doesn't get above 35 here at all next week, and even Chicago doesn't hit 40.

 

Looks like a cold rain for the next system and maybe an inch or two on the backside. Low tracks to about Chicago.

[Tom]

Been saying this for about a week now, no way we warm up as dramatically as the models were showing given the pattern we are in.  GGEM in line with what the pattern has been like for this winter and what the LRC has in store for this week.

 

Major cold coming if 12z GFS is right, several nights subzero next weekend into early next week and cold continues to reload in long range.  This ain't going to be pretty, esp if you don't like the cold.

[Geos]

If the edge of the snow cover can get into IL from the west, then I think 40s (probably mid 40s at most though) are still on tap for N IL. WAA will be quite strong. That January warm up over performed around here, no reason why this one wouldn't struggle.

[Tom]

Snow cover is much deeper and farther south this go around than back in January.  The snow cover back in January was only down to say Peoria, IL or there abouts...may a bit farther south.  Now we have snow down to N MO/S IL.  Frontal boundaries like to setup up just to the south of the deepest snow cover.

[Tom]

12z GGEM also seeing brutal cold by end of next weekend into next week.  I think the models are beginning to pick up on the SSW and dislodging the PV into S Canada.  We should be seeing an active snowy pattern starting next weekend into March.

[East Dubzz]

22 degrees out right now with a mostly sunny sky. Feels awesome out!

[Geos]

Up to 24° here with nearly full sun. Was just watching steam rising off the bare spots on the roof as the melt water passes over the warmer surface.

 

Snow from last night pretty much melted off the driveway on its own.

[Tom]

12z Euro is now trending towards the GGEM/GFS and keeping temps next week no higher than 40F, even on Thursday when some light rain may fall.  This trend should continue as frontal boundary will stay south of our area and keep main warmth and heavy rains out of the region and this will minimize flooding potential.

 

Euro also developing a west/east CO Low type storm next Fri/Sat...step in the right direction.  Fits the pattern.

[East Dubzz]

Up to 24° here with nearly full sun. Was just watching steam rising off the bare spots on the roof as the melt water passes over the warmer surface.

 

Snow from last night pretty much melted off the driveway on its own.

Same here. The warm-up this week is going to be interesting. My forecast for Tuesday is 38 and mostly sunny. It's just in the 20s today and sunny and the snow is definitely taking a little hit. The snow we get tomorrow will be big, because it will be a wet snow that's harder to melt off. But all the snow underneath it doesn't have that much liquid content in it, which is why a day like today with sun and 20s can actually take a toll on the snow depth.

[Tom]

12z Euro showing what the storm next weekend can be capable of.  Blows up a monster storm as it rides up the OV into the northeast.

[Tom]

The snow that is melting is today in the full sun is either on the roofs/sidewalk/patios/bushes where ever there is a darker color that can absorb sunlight.  The snow pack itself is not really melting away that fast.  The top layer is a little soft but that shouldn't eat away at it that much.

 

ED, clouds are moving into your area so you shouldn't see that much more melting soon.

[Tom]

D**n, Euro unloads a 1052mb High into the Dakotas next Tuesday ushering a brutal arctic attack with subzero lows in IA/WI and probably N IL after a Clipper lays down some light snows next Monday.

[East Dubzz]

Some nice warmth from the Euro still next week. Mid to upper 30s Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. If it overachieves a little, could maybe squeak out a 40 this week.

[Iowawx]

Next weekends storm on the Euro is going to have to come north a bit to give Chicago and Iowa snow, right now, it would pass just to our south.  This is the Euro snowfall from that event alone. And maybe trend stronger as well. 

[East Dubzz]

Up to 23 here now with the sun still out. Just went outside for a little bit. This is the type of weather I want! Gimme this and lots of snow and that's fine with me!

[Tom]

Looks like some lake effect clouds rolling in off the lake...

[Geos]

These are totally instability clouds. With the progression the season will see more of these type. - Instead of just stratus.

 

Peaked at 25° here today.

[East Dubzz]

Peaked at 23 here today, went back down to 22. More clouds have slowly been rolling in..

[james1976]

all the models suck for next weekend now.

[james1976]

local met is showing mid-upper 30s for highs this week. everything has been trending colder for this week.

[East Dubzz]

NWS forecast for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday is now 40, 37, and 39, with rain on Thursday.

[Iowawx]

18Z GFS came in even colder for this week, Not seeing highs getting above 36 here in Iowa.  Thats also the maximum temps as well. 

 

Anything is possible next weekend. As Tom said yesterday, a storm dumped 12 inches of snow in Tokyo and that storm fits in with the LRC. Still 6-7 days away. 

[Tom]

Has anyone noticed the Lake Effect flurries coming off the lake right now???  I just got back from the city and the wind is blowing right off the lake with some light snow in spots while I was there.  Geo's, that's why I mentioned those are lake effect clouds and not instability clouds.

 

Regarding next weekends system, be patient and let the models come back with a storm.  GFS is notorious to "see" the system in Long Range, then loose it in medium range, then come back 2-4 days before the system while the other Global Models are showing it.  Euro/GGEM are still showing the system.  We still have a long ways to go to track this storm.  Just look what happened with this coming system tomorrow...which by the way is the system that correlates to last weekends heavy snow in Tokyo, Japan.  Be patient, it will come and watch the models correct themselves to the LRC pattern.  I expect another lower lakes cutter with this system and not a western lakes cutter.

 

As for temps this week, I'm not shocked or surprised that models have corrected themselves from the torch they were indicating just a few days ago.  It's fascinating to see this evolve right before your eyes.

 

BTW, there are plenty more storms to track after next weekends system anyway.  Remember the NYE snow storm and the Jan 4-5th storm???  Watch the models for the period beginning Feb 27-28 and into the 1st week of March to see those systems start showing up.