February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

I just figured the flurries today were associated with the wave from last night.

 

Guidance was a bit too cold for today, so I'm thinking my forecasted highs +3° or +4° should be about right, or about what the EURO is showing will hold true. I expect low 40s on Tuesday, near 40° on Wednesday and probably mid 40s on Thursday.

 

Convective rains showing up on the GFS as well...

 

No thanks on a New Years type storm in March.

[Tom]

Already subzero lows for next weekend being depicted on the 7 Day towards Sunday night on Fox 32...temps usually trend colder as we get closer.  Would not be surprised if we hit 24 or 25 subzero readings at ORD for this season by last week of February.  25 is the all time record for ORD.

[Money]

GFS with a 994 MB L over Chicago at hr 93. It would be nice if that thing would trend a bit farther south and colder like this one. Temps are borderline here but this run had more cold sector precip than 12/18z

[DominicR]

Wow looks like most of my snow pack is outta here by weekend. Flooding/heavy rain Fri.

[Money]

0z NAM at HR 84 has a sub 992 L or so in E. KS and 3-4 inches of snow in 3 hours in S. WI lol

[Tom]

I must say, that is very close to the track back in December that brought Chicago rain, but not that much rain.  00z GFS has about 1.5" of rain this run...that would be bad around here.  Wouldn't take much to shift that track east or west.  This has potential to become a big time storm.

[Iowawx]

00Z GFS not quite on the idea of showing a storm next weekend. It does show it, but its kind of weak and a narrow stripe of moderate snow that passes over Chicago. Euro and GGEM are showing it as a bigger storm. Models will catch up eventually. 

 

Tom, what storm are you talking about? Next weekend? Or this Thursday?

[Money]

I must say, that is very close to the track back in December that brought Chicago rain, but not that much rain.  00z GFS has about 1.5" of rain this run...that would be bad around here.  Wouldn't take much to shift that track east or west.  This has potential to become a big time storm.

 

Trend has been for a stronger storm with more precip on the backside of it.

[Iowawx]

For your viewing pleasure........ Good for us in IA, not good for you guys in Chicago. This will change many times. 

[Geos]

For your viewing pleasure........ Good for us in IA, not good for you guys in Chicago. This will change many times. 

 

Need to clean some of the old snow out anyway. ...Just looked at the GFS closer... don't need that much melting. That would be a disaster.

 

Temp is actually going up tonight. Was 20°, now up to 24°. Still a marine influence even though the lake is mainly ice.

[Money]

GFS doesn't get above 40 the whole run again. Warmest it gets is about 35-39 for Chicago area. A few clippers and then a big system at the end developing with a lot of qpf/snow in iowa at hr 384

[Tom]

Iowawx, I was referring to the Thursday system.  I'd like to see more runs before jumping on one run from the other.  LRC cycle 3 has this system around the 21-22nd but its not always accurate on the dates as any system can speed up or slow down.  I do remember this was an IA/WI/NW IL special in Cycle 2 so signs are pointing to that.  You just never know what happens as was the case with this system on Monday.  N IL/IA were forecasted seeing rain/mix 3-4 days out and then boom, we got snow.  We'll see how this system works out in future runs.

[Tom]

Spectacular 500mb pattern off the 00z Euro Ensemble to finish off the month of February.  GGEM/GFS also indicating record breaking cold to invade the U.S.  Been saying this would evolve and get worse and we get closer.  This winter is going to keep on rockin' without stoppin'!

 

 

[Money]

Check out the cold on the GGEM at HR 240

 

[james1976]

what happened to the weekend storm? are any models showing it?

[Money]

ukie/ggem are showing it. Although ggem is pretty weak.

 

GFS did not but a lot of the 6z ensembles has it.

[Geos]

Check out the cold on the GGEM at HR 240

 

 

Not going to happen. I've barely seen 0° near March 1st, let alone -15°. That model has been way off on every cold shot this winter. Go with the EURO in the long range.

[East Dubzz]

GGEM has been way too cold this year.

[Money]

Not going to happen. I've barely seen 0° near March 1st, let alone -15°. That model has been way off on every cold shot this winter. Go with the EURO in the long range.

 

EURO shows -35 850 mb temps at hr 216....

[Geos]

EURO shows -35 850 mb temps at hr 216....

 

It will moderate in the coming days. There's too much daylight for those really cold lows by that time.

[Money]

It will moderate in the coming days. There's too much daylight for those really cold lows by that time.

 

lol. It's Feb 27th which isn't unreasonable. Plus there will still be snowcover. 

[Geos]

lol. It's Feb 27th which isn't unreasonable. Plus there will still be snowcover. 

 

That's really late, actually. The sun angle is the equivalent of October 10th about.

 

That's my take on what I'm seeing and what I expect. -20° sure, but -35° is hard to do even in the heart of the winter.

[Tom]

All I know, who ever has a deep enough snow cover by then they will certainly be subzero for overnight lows.  All Global models are now showing major arctic attack...enhanced by the Stratospheric warming.  We have seen these bitter shots 3 times already this year...2 in January and 1 in February...probably going to see 2 or 3 more this season before its over.  I really hope we don't melt much snow over here if that Thu/Fri system does cut nearby Chicago.

[Geos]

Was just comparing the latest model runs temperatures across the western 2/3rd's of Iowa and eastern Nebraska and they've busted. Temperatures over performing by 4-12° across the board. EURO seemed to have the least margin of error.

 

GFS and Canadian seemed to be the worst.

[Tom]

They busted because they have no snow cover in those areas...huge difference over here when there is 16-20" of snow on the ground.

[Geos]

Well Des Moines had several inches this morning and by the web cams there's only patches now. Central Iowa should be snowless by tomorrow afternoon.

[Money]

geos, you are trying way too hard. It's going to get cold again. We'll just have to deal with it hopefully for another 2 weeks.

[East Dubzz]

29 degrees here currently. Skies didn't clear here fast enough, so we never got to see any sunshine, was surprised it got to 29 out there. I have a feeling tomorrow's warmth is going to over achieve here a little tomorrow and we may hit 40 (forecast is 38).

[Geos]

29 degrees here currently. Skies didn't clear here fast enough, so we never got to see any sunshine, was surprised it got to 29 out there. I have a feeling tomorrow's warmth is going to over achieve here a little tomorrow and we may hit 40 (forecast is 38).

 

I'm thinking about 41° here. Didn't even bother shoveing the whole driveway since it'll start melting tomorrow. It's even warmer just a little south of you. I bet you hit freezing just right around sunrise.

[james1976]

check this out....nice!
 

Waterloo Snow Data

February 17, 2014

Today 4.7″
Season total 48.1″
Normal 34.5″
Record: 59.4″ (1961-62)

TOP TEN SNOWIEST WINTERS
59.4″ 1961-62
57.6″ 1992-93
53.9″ 2007-08
52.8″ 2009-10
50.5″ 1904-05
50.0″ 2012-13
49.5″ 2008-09
48.8″ 1928-29
48.7″ 2010-11
48.1″ so far for 2013-14

[East Dubzz]

I still can't believe Waterloo's record isn't even 60"... You guys may be able to break that.

[gabel23]

They busted because they have no snow cover in those areas...huge difference over here when there is 16-20" of snow on the ground.

Temps over performed last week also, it didn't take much for the snow to melt. All the big piles have pretty much melted also and we should be completely snow free by wednesday. 

[Tom]

Next week looks down right brutal as for departures below normal for February standards.

[Tom]

Sneak peak into March...latest CFSv2 temp forecast...same ol' song and dance...model keeps on trending colder as we get closer to the target month.

 

[Iowawx]

What I want is a pattern with less sub zero cold and more snow. That would be perfect to finish off this winter.

[DominicR]

I still can't believe Waterloo's record isn't even 60"... You guys may be able to break that.

 

Same here. Wow weak sauce.

[Tom]

BTW, did anyone watch the live feed on the near earth collision of the asteroid that flew by not to long ago??? 

 

Check out this link...

 

www.weather.com/video/watch-live-at-9pm-est-close-call-with-asteroid-28845?collid=/news/live

[Tom]

If anyone should complain about the cold, it would be Th_Snow...but we don't hear Th_Snow complaining at all.  How would you like 60 days and counting of subzero low's so far this winter???

[East Dubzz]

Has anyone noticed how the NAM isn't that warm for tomorrow and really any day this week? Has like Dubuque getting to 33 each day. Hope that is wrong and that we at least get upper 30s tomorrow. I need some warm weather and sun to help melt some stuff off the driveway.

[Geos]

Has anyone noticed how the NAM isn't that warm for tomorrow and really any day this week? Has like Dubuque getting to 33 each day. Hope that is wrong and that we at least get upper 30s tomorrow. I need some warm weather and sun to help melt some stuff off the driveway.

 

Most models are running under guidance, so I wouldn't worry about staying below the mid 30s.

WAA is commonly under done.

 

Check this out.