Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 0z NAM west and 3 mb stronger so far through 31. 1001 L entering S. TN at 32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 998 in C TN at strengthening fast at 35. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Snow falling in SE MO @ 36HR.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Just take a look at the 18z NAM and 0z NAM and laugh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 The 00Z NAM is really amped. This is going to be a bonkers run for somebody I bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 This energy dives down into the Gulf and takes a huge gulp of moisture... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 This energy dives down into the Gulf and takes a huge gulp of moisture... The composite simulated radar is impressive. Just starting to really strengthen at 36 too. Hi-res NAM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_6.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 The composite simulated radar is impressive. Just starting to really strengthen at 36 too. Hi-res NAM: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_6.pngThese type of tracks bring some of the most memorable snow storms in our region. To bad we dont have temps in the upper 20's and higher snow ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 This run and the Hi-res NAM are much, much slower. Wonder if this is a trend for 0z runs tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 993 in SW Indiana at HR 42 (18z, Wed) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Hi res nam gonna tease madtown Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 993 in SW Indiana at HR 42 (18z, Wed) near evansville. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HI-Res NAM is a lot slower than 18z as well. Looks like 994 or so in W. TN/W. KY at 36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 0z NAM is going to destroy Chicago. LOW stalled out in W. Indiana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z KM NAM http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014122300/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014122300/nam_ref_us_14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 00z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Gotta love being in the screw zone. All is well though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 No love here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 4k NAM HR 39 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_13.png HR 42 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_14.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 45 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Gotta love being in the screw zone. All is well though.You guys got the last storm so we get this one lol. Also a mini screw zone for Geos and I too haha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Total snow through 45 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_asnow_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 You guys got the last storm so we get this one lol. Also a mini screw zone for Geos and I too haha. You guys got like every storm last yr though while S. WI hardly got anything Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 HR 48 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Last one: HR 51 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_ref_frzn_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 You guys got the last storm so we get this one lol. Also a mini screw zone for Geos and I too haha.Yeah, 3" back in November. Like I said earlier, I just want the cold. Snow is just a bonus. Either way, at least someone will get a white Christmas out of this storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 http://i.imgur.com/XHAk9xX.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Oh so close. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI751 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014 NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION .UPDATE...ISSUED AT 747 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014 LEADING BAND OF PCPN STILL LIFTG NWD ACRS THE FCST AREA. NWDPROGRESS IS LIKELY TO SLOW...BUT SHOULD GET SNOW PRETTY MUCH ACRSALL BUT MAYBE NW VILAS COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT. ROADS REPORTEDLYSTARTING TO GET SLICK...SO WL JUST START THE ADVISORY NOW. WARMER AIR JUST ABV THE SFC MAKING NWD PROGRESS INTO E-C WI FM THES. SO SNOW SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO MAINLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF E-C WIBY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER LINE TO WORK ABOUT AS FAR N ASA PCZ-CLI-OCQ-SUE LINE BY LATE EVENING...THEN PRETTY MUCH HOLD INPLACE THE REST OF THE NGT. BUT THE BAND OF PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLYWEAKEN OVERNIGHT...AND THAT WL HOLD AMNTS IN CHECK. ALIGNMENT OFADVISORY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...MAINLY NEED TO WATCH AREAS JUST TOTHE SE TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT ON THE SRN EDGE. ANOTHER BAND OF PCPN WL SURGE NWD INTO THE FCST AREA FM THE SSTARTING ARND 4 OR 5 AM. THAT WL BE ASSOC WITH STG SHRTWV NOWROUNDING THE BASE OF DEVELOPING UPR LOW...AND WL SET UP STG UPRSHEAR ZONE ACRS THE FCST AREA. SNOWS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WL PICKUP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN THE PCPN ARRIVES...AND SNOW COULDBE FALLING QUITE HEAVILY IN A BAND FM AUW-IMT FOR THE MORNINGCOMMUTE. WERE IT NOT FOR THE WARM BOUNDARY AND WET NATURE OF THESNOW THAT WL KEEP SNOW RATIOS DOWN...THIS MIGHT WARRANT AN UPGRADETO A WARNING. CONCERN EVEN EXISTS FOR AREAS TO THE SE OF THE ADVISORY FOR THEMORNING COMMUTE. SEVERAL OF THE HI-RES MODELS INDICATE SIG COOLINGOF LOW-LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE STRONGEST LIFT MOVESTHROUGH. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS COOL TO THE POINT WHERE THEY WOULDSUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE OR EVEN HEAVY SNOW. THIS WOULDBE OCCURRING NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT...WHERE PCPN COULD BECONVECTIVE. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN A BAND FROMWAUTOMA TO ATW-GRB TO SUE...AS AREAS TO THE SE MAY JUST HAVE TOOMUCH WARMTH TO OVERCOME. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGHENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHG IN THE FCST AT THIS POINT...BUT WL TRY ANDHIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY IN UPCOMING SPS AND UPDATED HWO. EVEN IF A TEMPORARY CHG TO SNOW OCCURS...PCPN ACRS THE SERN PART OF THEFCST AREA WOULD LIKELY FLOP BACK OVER TO DZ AS MID-LVL DRY SLOTDRIVES NE INTO THE FCST AREA LATE TOMORROW MORNING. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_asnow_us_18.png 0 here while 30 miles east gets 6+ That would suck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 My implication was more-so based off of the hi-res guidance! especially as more moisture begins to enter the storm and OBS indicate the southern energy is a bit stronger than previously progged. In the end, it's just a matter of waiting & watching.Was supposed to be a comma, not an exclamation point. Those tablets, I tell you... Didn't mean to quote this post, can't get rid of it... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014122300/nam4km_asnow_us_18.png 0 here while 30 miles east gets 6+ That would suck.Beautiful solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Man, things were looking bright for us here in Southeast Minnesota for a sec there, but the northerly band looks to stay primarily in NC Wisconsin now. Snow would be a nice relief, all we've had today was 33 and rain. Literally. It's horrible. Hope somehow things pan out for us. I'd love to get a solid 3-5", but at this point that seems like wishcasting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I guess I will pack the snowshoes for my trip to Christmas in Milwaukee. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 RGEM coming in much, much slower as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 lot just mentioned on facebook that a winter storm watch will be issued by later tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 lot just mentioned on facebook that a winter storm watch will be issued by later tonight. No they didn't. They said if the rest of the guidance comes back similar to NAM that they would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 Game over for here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 RGEM nice hit for ORD/MKE and even here to some extent 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 1.5 QPF for Chicago from HR 36 to 48. (39 mm= 1.5 qpf or so) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 LOT AFD: OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY...CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE 00Z WRF-NAM IS TRICKLING IN AND APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY CAVED IN AND JOINED THE CAMP OF WHAT THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAD SHOWN ON WITH THE 12Z RUNS. LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND HIGH DEGREE OF VARIABILITY BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS HAS MADE THIS A CHALLENGING SYSTEM TO FORECAST FOR...HOWEVER THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS CAME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND NOW THE 00Z WRF-NAM SEEMS TO HAVE JOINED THAT CAMP WHICH COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM THREAT TO A POTENTIALLY LARGE PORTION OF OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM PROGGED IN THE MODELS WITH 500MB...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALL LEAVE ME VERY CONCERNED THAT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A VERY HEAVY AND WET SNOW AFFECTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE NEGATIVE MID- LEVEL THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 6C/KM FROM 600-300MB POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION WITHIN THE DEFORMATION BAND. THERMAL PROFILES IN THE MODELS ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW...ESPECIALLY DOWN LOW...HOWEVER GIVEN THE EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS SHOWN IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD ANTICIPATE STRONG ASCENT TO OVERWHELM IN MARGINAL WARMTH DOWN LOW AND LIKELY ALLOW FOR HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE DEFO BAND. NOT UNCOMMON FOR RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEMS TO TRACK A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS FORECAST...WHICH COULD PUSH THE HEAVY SNOW BAND FARTHER WEST IN OUR CWA WITH MORE OF A MIX EAST. THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR A RATHER NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION...MAKING THE PLACEMENT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW BAND VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2014 Report Share Posted December 23, 2014 I see both NAM's are closing in on something like the GFS. This could be somewhat like this past storm. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.