Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Check out Skilling's post in his blog....notice the lake band forming near MKE around 11:30pm and continuing through Sunday midnight! You can clearly see the RPM model picking up the Lehs up/down the western shores of Lake Michigan throughout the duration of this storm. Epic baby! http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/8-12-snowfall-strong-ne-winds-develop-sunsun-night-lake-effect-could-contribute-1-3-to-the-tally Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 That's not all snow either. That's just accumulated precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just seeing this miss like 15-20 miles to the south is what sucks. Although if GFS was right, it would still be 3-4 here or so.Sucks man. You were one of the people who didn't throw in the towel when this storm trended way South and weak a couple days ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS snowmap from 1-28 0z 12z GFS today Hmm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015013112/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nice fat quarter sized flakes coming down here with a temp of 35 degrees. Not really sticking anywhere though except a little slush starting to show up on our deck and grass. I think precip rates today will be important as it looks like where the radar returns are lighter the reporting stations have rain and are 35-36 degrees, but where it is coming down harder, the reports are snow and 34-35 degrees. Amazing how different 1 little degree can make. I love weather!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015013112/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.pngRGEM is deadly in this range. It nailed the NYC bust last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Good ole UKIE http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_036_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_042_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1043 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 UPDATE1032 AM CSTCURRENTLY GOING OVER THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. A FIRST LOOKAT THE 12 UTC GFS INCREASES MY CONCERNS FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCHOF MY AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP TYPE ISSUESMENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COULD COMPLICATED THINGSACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTSTHE 850 MB LOW MAY TRACK RIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAYAFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THIS COULD IMPACT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS MYFAR SOUTH.I AM ALSO BECOMING MORE CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL OFBLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVENTHE TREND FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFSSUGGESTS WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UPAROUND 40 KT. IF THESE TYPE OF WINDS MATERIALIZE...WHITE OUTCONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY BECOME AN ISSUE. IN ANYEVENT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF MY AREA WILLEXPERIENCE A MAJOR WINTER STORM...WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWPOSSIBLE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blugga Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 I AM ALSO BECOMING MORE CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL OFBLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVENTHE TREND FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFSSUGGESTS WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UPAROUND 40 KT. IF THESE TYPE OF WINDS MATERIALIZE...WHITE OUTCONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY BECOME AN ISSUE. IN ANYEVENT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF MY AREA WILLEXPERIENCE A MAJOR WINTER STORM...WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWPOSSIBLE.From KLOT AFD Update 10:32 AM Above me beat me to it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Ukie looks like the 12z JMA back on Thursday I think you posted... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 From KLOT AFD Update 10:32 AM Above me beat me to it Was just going to post it. Looking good! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Moderate snowfall in north Lincoln. Big fat flakes here as well. No accumulation but it's coming down at a good enough clip we could be seeing some soon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think most of us will blow through the 12" mark.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GGEM is the obvious outlier as it develops SLP near TX/OK border then heads ENE towards KY/TN border. Stark difference in track when 12z GFS has it going through C IL/IN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Moderate snowfall in north Lincoln. Big fat flakes here as well. No accumulation but it's coming down at a good enough clip we could be seeing some soon!im pumped right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z WRF...pocket of 1.4-1.6qpf in S Cook... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 It's been a while since we have seen such a large system like this one developing over the central CONUS...just look at that radar imagery of deep moisture flowing up from the Gulf. The system is not even mature and we are seeing some heavy banding. Can't wait to see this storm start deepening late tonight into tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Where's Tony been hiding???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 im pumped right now You guys in Lincoln and omaha are looking good, I would say 8-10 looks like a good bet. I would be shocked if they don't upgrade your area. I'm right on the line, I'll take what I get though. Snowing hard here and starting to stick on grassy surfaces. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm reconsidering driving to my friends super bowl party if the 12Z GFS comes to fruition. Rates over an inch per hour with gusts over 40 mph would make driving nearly impossible. I warned all of my friends to be careful if they go. This is definitely really bad timing since a lot of people will be on the road driving to their super bowl parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Definitely agree Scott, I think LOT will upgrade Western portions of the area go a BW if e eveytjing goes to plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 You guys in Lincoln and omaha are looking good, I would say 8-10 looks like a good bet. I would be shocked if they don't upgrade your area. I'm right on the line, I'll take what I get though. Snowing hard here and starting to stick on grassy surfaces.This is really making up for the 20+ inches that I missed earlier this week where I used to live in the northeast 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 If this storm ends up becoming a Blizzard, even if it doesn't, we should pay tribute to our friend from the past, Dominic Rocco. He would have been having so much fun tracking this storm system. I know he is watching from above. From watching his FB page, his friends knick-named him the "Don Juan". This storm may turn out to be something special for Chicago. Miss you Dominic and I know your still here with us! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Forgive my poor spelling I can't type well on my phone! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thinking this is going to be on the stronger side if current guidance. This thing is going to go nuts...The moisture feed is crazy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 1.5 QPF on the NMM for Chicago. .5 line gets awfully close to here: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_conus_040_precip_p36.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Currently 34 dew point 26 Thinking this should be all Snow or very quickly switch to Snow. This starting to look like it's going to be a monster storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 The usually dry ARW: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_conus_039_precip_p36.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 These are the biggest flakes I have ever seen...(Florida girl) NICE! Congrats out there. Finally! eh? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 1.75 QPF spot showing on the NMM: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/hrw-nmm/12/hrw-nmm_conus_046_precip_p36.gif ARW is 1.5-1.75 at the same time frame. Chicago is locked and loaded for 12+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 precip has slacked off some. hopefully the goods are delivered tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Are temps going to be a bigger issue than thought? La Crosse even mentions some mixing in far southern counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 How are the temps looking? I'm worried that it may be too warm... I'm at 34 right now, that latest precip. looks crazy hopefully it'll all fall as snow. Even if we loose some to cold rain there is an abundance of precip so I'm still hoping for 8-10" maybe more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not worried about temps at all. They will start dropping by around 4 PM or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z GFS Bufkit: OSH: 4.4 (18:1 ratios)MKE: 10.2 (14:1 ratios)ORD: 14.3 (13:1 ratios)MSN: 4.3 (8:1 ratios) LSE: 4.0 (11:1 ratios) DBQ: 13.9 (13-17:1 ratios) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 precip has slacked off some. hopefully the goods are delivered tonightI think that's just cuz the time frame on the NMM doesn't include the next few hours given that's at 48 hr and is only a 36 hour precip time frame. the amount of moisture is crazy with this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Anyone have the new wgn in house Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think that's just cuz the time frame on the NMM doesn't include the next few hours given that's at 48 hr and is only a 36 hour precip time frame. the amount of moisture is crazy with this system.im pumped for tonight. should be crazy, if all these models are correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 31, 2015 Report Share Posted January 31, 2015 Not sure how MSN ends up with 8 to 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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