Super Bowl Weekend Major Snowstorm

[Tom]

The cold front just slipped south of a line from Madison to just north of MKE...

 

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.76,40.66,3000

[FarmerRick]

Omaha:

 

WOWT 6 News

7 mins · 

Snow is likely to stick in the metro starting Saturday night with a slushy 2-4 inches. Heavier accumulation is possible across central Iowa where 4-8 inches is likely.

‪#‎watchWOWT‬

[6789]

Anyone wanna throw out some ideas on what the 18z NAM will show???

Snowmaggedon? Haha just want to say thanks for keeping us updated Tom and everyone else. Glad to see we all love the weather!

[Maxim]

Anyone wanna throw out some ideas on what the 18z NAM will show???

Maybe a tick north.

[Jaycee]

Booooo. I think the models might bust out here.... 2-4"??? Yuck. It's snowing hard out. Just not sticking

[Snowlover76]

Booooo. I think the models might bust out here.... 2-4"??? Yuck. It's snowing hard out. Just not sticking

we've only had around .15" of precip so far.

 

we will be fine for at least 6" 

[BrianJK]

based on current observations, is this thing developing as expected?

[indianajohn]

I must say it is nice to see no fighting on the board... amazing how a big winter storm just brings everyone together you guys feel the love in this room LOL!!!!

[Maxim]

based on current observations, is this thing developing as expected?

Pretty much

[Tom]

based on current observations, is this thing developing as expected?

Looking at the radar, going as planned...might have some problems with mixing issues initially in IA where it is in the upper 30's.  However, out by us it should start as snow later tonight.  This thing is a slowwwww mover, it is creeping eastward ever so slowly.  Glad to see a deep moisture laden system move slowly and not zip on by.

[Maxim]

Even a longer snow duration than GHD.

[indianajohn]

You think we have the possibility of thunder snow??

[Maxim]

You think we have the possibility of thunder snow??

not looking very likely

[Jaycee]

Looking at the radar, going as planned...might have some problems with mixing issues initially in IA where it is in the upper 30's. However, out by us it should start as snow later tonight. This thing is a slowwwww mover, it is creeping eastward ever so slowly. Glad to see a deep moisture laden system move slowly and not zip on by.

Tom, every model, HRRR, HRRRX, NMM, RGEM, point towards totals of 8"+ time and time again. yet our locals just said 2-4". it's not accumulating yet, so im paranoid

[Snowlover76]

Tom, every model, HRRR, HRRRX, NMM, RGEM, point towards totals of 8"+ time and time again. yet our locals just said 2-4". it's not accumulating yet, so im paranoid

.18" of precip so far. 

[Jaycee]

.18" of precip so far.

I know man, just thought it'd be accumulating already. I hate the Mets here, but why would they just now come out and say 2-4" ya know??

[Snowlover76]

I know man, just thought it'd be accumulating already. I hate the Mets here, but why would they just now come out and say 2-4" ya know??

because they are TV mets? 

 

With the amount of precip that is still to come which is around .8-1.00, I wouldn't be too worried. 

[Snowlover76]

Its probably gonna be snowing until around noontime tomorrow.  So I see no need to worry yet 

[FarmerRick]

Booooo. I think the models might bust out here.... 2-4"??? Yuck. It's snowing hard out. Just not sticking

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 

130 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 

 

NEZ050-051-065>068-078-088>093-010045- 

BUTLER-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE- 

JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON- 

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAVID CITY...WAHOO...ASHLAND...YUTAN... 

SEWARD...MILFORD...LINCOLN...PLATTSMOUTH...NEBRASKA CITY... 

CRETE...WILBER...FAIRBURY...BEATRICE...TECUMSEH...STERLING... 

AUBURN...PAWNEE CITY...TABLE ROCK...FALLS CITY 

130 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 

 

...MAINLY WET SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA 

THIS AFTERNOON... 

 

THE EARLY RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA HAD 

PRETTY MUCH CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW. AS OF 12 NOON...JEFFERSON 

AND SALINE COUNTIES REPORTED 2 INCHES OF SNOW ON VEHICLES WITH 

GRASS AREAS COVERED IN SOME SNOW...AND ROADS WET TO SLUSHY. MORE 

SNOW WAS MOVING INTO THIS AREA OUT OF KANSAS AND ROAD CONDITIONS 

WILL LIKELY ONLY WORSEN. THIS AREA IS ALSO IN A WINTER WEATHER 

ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TODAY UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY. BY THE TIME THIS EVENT 

IS FINISHED A TOTAL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

[Tom]

@ NebraskaWX, once the sun begins to set and the radiation from the sun doesn't warm the pavement as much, it'll begin to accumulate. Your ground temp is very warm from the 60's you had earlier this week.

[WBadgersW]

Sref plumes avg dropped to 12.2". Majority of the members are above the avg though. I can't remove the two outliers that show 2" to get the new avg.

[NEJeremy]

Booooo. I think the models might bust out here.... 2-4"??? Yuck. It's snowing hard out. Just not sticking

It was never supposed to accumulate today, in fact the forecast has always been for a rain/snow mix today. The fact that it has been snow all day already and is 34-35 degrees I think bodes well for tonight. It was supposed to be in the upper 30's today so we are already ahead of the temperature curve for tonight when it starts to get colder and the sun goes down. No worries here for amounts over 6" for Omaha

[indianajohn]

Hey if you guys plan on watching the super bowl tomorrow and are satelite customers you might want to think of a way of reaching the dish to clear off all the snow signal wont penetrate through all the snow...just an fyi

[Snowlover76]

It was never supposed to accumulate today, in fact the forecast has always been for a rain/snow mix today. The fact that it has been snow all day already and is 34-35 degrees I think bodes well for tonight. It was supposed to be in the upper 30's today so we are already ahead of the temperature curve for tonight when it starts to get colder and the sun goes down. No worries here for amounts over 6" for Omaha

I think that ratios really help us out tonight. 

[jcwxguy]

sref plum mean went up to 11.36 for lincoln

[gabel23]

Hastings updated snow forecast, they increased to 4-7" for my area!!

[Snowlover76]

Hastings updated snow forecast, they increased to 4-7" for my area!!

no doubt in my mind now that Omaha will up their forecast as well. 

[jcwxguy]

18z nam has close to a foot (10-12) for lincoln (if im reading the chart right)

[gabel23]

no doubt in my mind now that Omaha will up their forecast as well.

 

I would think they extend the warning too; I would say three counties or so west of Missouri river.....

[NEJeremy]

local met said that latest short range models show 6" here by midnight and that would be a "game changer" for the total amounts of 6-7" currently forecast. I think snow will really start to accumulate by suppertime

[Snowlover76]

18z nam has close to a foot for lincoln

When was the last time Lincoln got a foot from a storm? 

[Money]

18z NAM shows about 6 here now

[jcwxguy]

http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh287/jnc3985/18znam_zpsqfhdnk9g.png

[Madtown]

How's it looking down this way money

[Snowlover76]

Lincoln, NE
Extremes, Highest Total Snowfall inches, 
Length of period: 2 days
Years: 1948-2009

Rank  Value  Ending Date
  1    19.0    2/12/1965 
  3    13.2   10/27/1997,  1/ 3/1971
  4    13.0    3/ 8/1998
  5    12.6    3/26/1983
  6    11.7    2/22/1971
  7    11.6    1/ 4/1971
  8    11.2   12/25/2009
  9    11.1    3/25/1957
 10    11.0   11/18/1957
 11    10.4   12/19/1973
 12    10.2    2/14/1969
 13    10.1    1/26/2004,  4/11/1997
 15    10.0    2/ 9/2001,  3/ 9/1998
 17     9.7   12/18/1973
 18     9.4    1/31/2002
 19     9.2   12/11/1961

[Scott26]

The 18Z NAM has a nice 14-16 blip right over my backyard

[mlgamer]

Out here on the SW outpost (Topeka KS) our rain has been mixing with small sleet and snow crystals within the last hour.  You can hear it hitting things and see it on the pavement.  Our local forecast called for plain rain until midnight.  My temp peaked at 39.7 at about 11AM and has slowly fallen to 36.9 now.

 

Not sure this means anything in the bigger picture but maybe a positive sign especially for the Nebraska folks...

[WBadgersW]

18z NAM shows about 6 here now

And MKE lowered snowfall amounts. 4-7" now

[WBadgersW]

18z NAM shows about 6 here now

And MKE lowered snowfall amounts. 4-7" now

[MarcusBeier]

Tom, whats your call for me in Metro Detroit?