February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

+ Tony, I was just going to comment on the 12z Euro Ensembles and a majority of them have either a Bowling Ball/Cutter look to them.  Do you think we should start a Thread for this system and separate it from the general Feb Discussion?  Signs are pointing someone in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes is going to see a storm.  Where it actually tracks is up in the air.

[james1976]

18z GFS suppressed and weak.

[Tom]

The CFSv2 runs just keep getting Barbaric each day for the rest of this month into the first half of March.  Some of the members continue to build a massive snow pack covering a lot of real estate from the Plains to the Lakes.  I see a very strong signal of a dominant SE ridge developing in March and with plenty of late season arctic air around, I could see some big time winter storms.

 

12z Euro Ensembles also showing increasing amounts of snow over the next 2 weeks over the Central CONUS.  When this Winter is over, I think some ppl in the Central CONUS will be waiving their "white flags".

[Tom]

18z GFS suppressed and weak.

I'm sure over the coming days it will start trending back with a storm.  This model has a tendency to "see" a system a week out, then loose it, before playing catch up and coming back to a storm system.

[winterfreak]

GFS supression city. Thinking tonight's runs will be interesting. Some of the EURO ensembles are monstrous.

[Tony]

+ Tony, I was just going to comment on the 12z Euro Ensembles and a majority of them have either a Bowling Ball/Cutter look to them.  Do you think we should start a Thread for this system and separate it from the general Feb Discussion?  Signs are pointing someone in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes is going to see a storm.  Where it actually tracks is up in the air.

I think that is a good idea as not to clog up this thread. It's a few days out and I could see a lot of posting if the runs continue to pan out.

[Tom]

I think that is a good idea as not to clog up this thread. It's a few days out and I could see a lot of posting if the runs continue to pan out.

I'll prob start it during tonight's 00z runs.  We'll see if the 00z GFS can start coming back with a system.

[Tom]

GFS supression city. Thinking tonight's runs will be interesting. Some of the EURO ensembles are monstrous.

I agree, I saw some incredible wide reaching storm systems out of the 51 members.  I think in this type of pattern, your area should start doing real well with the amount of cold and storminess headed our way over the next 3+ weeks.

[indianajohn]

its official skilling mentioned the storm for next week........as I model watch all week we have a nice Lake effect setup to begin WED/THURS!!!

[Tom]

12z Euro Control....

[Tom]

There is that classic tongue of colder waters in the Northern Pacific stretched all the way from Asia to just north of Hawaii.  Once this Split Flow pattern of the LRC kicks in, it's going to be a wild ride till we hit Spring.

[Money]

GFS Ensembles:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f162.gif

[Money]

168

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f168.gif

[East Dubzz]

Is this still like a week away?

[Tom]

Already big differences showing up on the 00z GFS...quite the change already and its starting to look like the GGEM did a day or two ago.  Tonight it is trying to phase this storm down in the deep south and it cuts NE up the Appalachians unlike the 18z run where it had the storm up the East Coast.

[Tom]

00z GFS...wondering how the GGEM looks like tonight...

[james1976]

Already big differences showing up on the 00z GFS...quite the change already and its starting to look like the GGEM did a day or two ago.  Tonight it is trying to phase this storm down in the deep south and it cuts NE up the Appalachians unlike the 18z run where it had the storm up the East Coast.

I didnt see that. I see Boston getting destroyed again on this run. Wouldn't surprise me. Its their year. Luckily, its still 6-7 days out so lots of changes can be expected.

[Tom]

I didnt see that. I see Boston getting destroyed again on this run. Wouldn't surprise me. Its their year. Luckily, its still 6-7 days out so lots of changes can be expected.

Boston gets rain actually and the snow is farther inland....wherever this storm tracks its going to be huge....

[winterfreak]

GGEM suppressed?

[Tom]

GGEM suppressed?

The trough over the weekend overloads the entire CONUS.  It's the only model thus far that has such a deep trough and it's showing sub-zero highs in IA/WI/MN on Saturday.  Single digit lows in GA/AL/AR???  Might be over doing it on this run which suppresses the system all the way down into the Gulf coast.

[Tom]

00z Euro coming in farther north from the other models thru 132HR...developing a 997mb SLP near Denver, CO...

[Money]

994 in NW OK at HR 144 

[Tom]

00z Euro trending towards it's ensemble runs and developing something big...

[Tom]

994 in NW OK at HR 144 

Euro keeps slowing the progression of the arctic front and allows the SLP to really form and transport moisture northward...showing accumulating snows up to S MN thru 144HR...

[Money]

GEFS are pretty far north compared to the op GFS. Guessing some of its ensembles are showing bombs. 

[Tom]

Doesn't this snowfall map look familiar about 3-5 days out from the Super Bowl storm???

[Tom]

00z Euro certainly trending north and more juiced up...looking a lot more like it's 12z ensembles...00z GGEM seems like it is on its own with suppression.  GFS starting to turn the corner slowly.  It'll be another interesting day tomorrow but I like where the trends are going.

[Money]

Chicago is in the perfect spot again. You guys are gonna get buried. 

[Tom]

JMA/EURO vs GFS....the battle has begun...

[Grizzcoat]

Holy Mother of Mary is that some cold stuff at the end of the Euro 486 1000-500 hPa thickness near I-Falls with 500 thickness as far S as N.IA into S.WI---- easily the coldest of the winter for many.

[Tom]

Chicago is in the perfect spot again. You guys are gonna get buried. 

A lot of juice showing up with this system...the amount of cold entering this pattern is not going to bode well for you guys up north.  Maybe not until March when I think the SE ridge will build back in.

[Tom]

Holy Mother of Mary is that some cold stuff at the end of the Euro 486 1000-500 hPa thickness near I-Falls with 500 thickness as far S as N.IA into S.WI---- easily the coldest of the winter for many.

Many sub-zero nights on the way...on the verge of the coldest part of the LRC ...

[Money]

GFS Ensembles HR 162

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/f162.gif

[Grizzcoat]

06Z GFS coming in  much better compared to the 00Z--- will post maps when it's through the region...  Great sign!!!

[Grizzcoat]

FWIW-- 06Z GFS has another similar situation at hours 252-264 and beyond...

[bud2380]

This thing is starting to get interesting

[Maxim]

I'm gonna get buried again.

[NEJeremy]

06Z shows snow all the way down to Houston, New Orleans, and the Florida panhandle at the end of next week too!

[winterfreak]

Oh look GFS snowfall looks eerily similar to Superbowl storm. Could we possibly get screwed by warm air again? I hope not.

[Tom]

I went ahead and started a Thread for this system...