February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

I'll take the cold any day--- the warm season lasts much too long as it is. PLus-- I love hearing the morons who complain about how long  the "winter" has been. Seriously???

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I'll take the cold any day--- the warm season lasts much too long as it is. PLus-- I love hearing the morons who complain about how long  the "winter" has been. Seriously???

 

I don't get the point about the cold (what fun is cold weather by itself?  It's just an excuse not to get exercise and stay cooped up in the house).

[Tom]

Gosh I hope something to this magnitude transpires....

[Tom]

Haven't seen a colorful map like this all season on the GFS from the Plains to the Lakes in the 8-10 Day period...

[NEJeremy]

I'll take the cold any day--- the warm season lasts much too long as it is. PLus-- I love hearing the morons who complain about how long  the "winter" has been. Seriously???

The warm season lasts too long? It's hot for maybe like 3 months of the year and even that isn't continuous heat. At least when it's hot, there's more stuff you can do outside. When it's cold outside, you're not guaranteed of any snow on the ground and therefore winter usually translates to being stuck inside boredom, i.e. this winter.

I'll take heat any day over cold. For me extreme heat is preferrable as heat is just uncomfortable. You get sweaty and sticky. When it's brutally cold outside, it hurts. Your fingers, face, ears anything that's not covered really well, hurts. It's painful when you're really cold. It's a whole other level of being uncomfortable. To each their own though!

[Money]

This is pretty neat (from NWS MKE)

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/mkx/2015/msn-winterchart.png

 

 

 

Goals of the AWSSIhttp://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/research/awssi/images/detroit.png

• Objectively index winter conditions
• Use commonly available data—max/min temperature, snowfall, and snow depth or precipitation
• Create a historical database of AWSSI for any location with daily temperature, snow, and precipitation data
• Allow comparisons of season to season severity at one location in the context of the climatology of that location or between locations
• Use as a baseline to scale subjective impacts such as those to snow removal, commerce, and transportation
• Apply to multiple users and their needs

How the AWSSI Accumulates

The AWSSI is not limited to meteorological winter (December ‐ February) but is intended to capture winter weather from its earliest occurrence to its last. The winter season begins when the first of any one of the following instances occurs:

First measurable snowfall (>= 0.1 inch)
  • Maximum temperature at or below 32°F
  • December 1

The winter season ends at the last occurrence of any of the following:
   • Last measurable snowfall (>= 0.1 inch)
   • Last day with 1 inch of snow on the ground
   • Last day with a maximum temperature of 32°F or lower

 

Daily scores are calculated based on scores assigned to temperature, snowfall, and snow depth thresholds. The daily scores are accumulated through the winter season, allowing a running total of winter severity in the midst of a season as well as a final, cumulative value characterizing the full season. Accumulations of the temperature and snow components of the index are computed separately and then added together for the total index. This allows comparison of the relative contribution of each to the total score.

The AWSSI has been processed for 52 locations across the continental U.S. to provide a variety of locations in different climate regimes for analysis. The AWSSI is calculated for each season from 1950‐1951 to 2012‐2013. The seasonal data is then subject to quality control, and seasons missing data that would contribute 5% or more of the seasons AWSSI are removed . Averages and standard deviations are calculated for running accumulations of daily temperature and snowscores as well as the total AWSSI.

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/research/awssi/indexAwssi.jsp

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

For Nikos and myself over here in SMI

 

These aren't mine as I have broken camera, but they're from an airport close by and typical to what were treated to on VD with 3-5" fluffy snows on top of the glaciered remains of the winter blowing in 40+ mph gusts causing whiteouts and lots of drifting in open areas.

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

I spend more time outside in the winter because I enjoy ice fishing , winter camping, skiing etc, ie getting away from the crowds. Heading to lake of the woods in 2+ weeks then winter camping in the BWCA in late March. Winter is an awesome time becuz most simply watch TV and miss what mother nature provides.

[Scott26]

The GFS is showing run after run of below zero highs for Wednesday and Thursday with wind chills between -25 and -35 from late Tuesday night all the way to Friday morning. The Euro has highs in the mid-single digits for both days, but looks to be about as cold during the mornings. With 850 mb temps less than -25 degrees Celsius and a deep snow pack I'm thinking the colder guidance will end up being the most accurate. We will see if the GFS is overdoing the cold as we get closer.

[Trinomial]

Tom, is it still looking like extreme cold Wednesday and Thursday? I think you posted that the other day. Thanks!

[Tom]

Tom, is it still looking like extreme cold Wednesday and Thursday? I think you posted that the other day. Thanks!

Yup, looks a 2 day bitter cold snap is in the works.  Might not pop above "0" during the day on Wednesday or Thursday.

[Maxim]

Yup, looks a 2 day bitter cold snap is in the works.  Might not pop above "0" during the day on Wednesday or Thursday.

That's nearly unprecedented for this late in the season. I'd be shocked if we didn't get to at least 5°

[Maxim]

I'll take the cold any day--- the warm season lasts much too long as it is. PLus-- I love hearing the morons who complain about how long  the "winter" has been. Seriously???

I hate extreme cold. I'd take 100° over the we're going to get next week.

[Tom]

That's nearly unprecedented for this late in the season. I'd be shocked if we didn't get to at least 5°

What's even more unprecedented is to have such late season arctic attacks in back to back years!  Last year, we had severe cold to open the first week of March.  Day time highs were in the low single digits and we tacked on sub-zero lows.  We did have a little deeper snow pack then though.  If we hadn't melted so much snow, these temps would be much lower.

[Tom]

Getting some light LES ATM...saw some pics of some decent LES accumulations in DT Chicago and the north side.

[Tom]

I thought this was an amazing picture and a signature shot of what has been happening in New England.  Here is a back yard pic of Joe D' Aleo's back yard in southern New Hampshire.  That is a 5' fence and its almost covered!  I would love to experience what they have been enduring.  A once in a lifetime event for sure.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/FEB151.jpeg

[james1976]

Jim Cantore's reaction to thundersnow over in Boston was great
Actually I think it was Plymouth, MA. There were 6 times with thunder and lightning and he was freaking out and jumping around said he would take that over the $500 million lottery. Haha. I love his enthusiasm.

[james1976]

Cantore "Boston has had 2 seasons worth of snow in the past 23 days"

[Geos]

Getting in on a little LES action right now. Flake size isn't great, but the pavement is turning white. Made it all the way to -4° this morning.

Wednesday and Thursday this week looks brutal. 

 

Really like that third picture Adam!

[Tom]

Interesting system starting to show up on the 12z Euro for next weekend.  GFS has been showing it as well from time to time.

[CentralNebWeather]

00z gfs showed all of Nebraska with over 1 foot of snow, 12z gfs shows 0. I guess nothing should surprise us with the models this winter. Maybe tonight it will come back? Sometimes it is tough to take them seriously with this large of a swing.

[SE Wisconsin]

As much as I love a good snowstorm, as much snow as they are seeing in New England can be very damaging.  Ice dams, gutter damage, even collapsed roofs.  Joe D' Aleo also includes a picture of his

roof.   Love the snow, just hate dealing with its aftermath and damage.

 

                                                                                              

 

 

                http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Ice_Dams_291_300x200.jpg

[Tom]

That storm showing up on the models next weekend is part of the LRC's Pre-Thanksgiving storm system.  Let's see what it can do this time around.  PNA looks to be near neutral and heading negative, but the AO/NAO look to be sky high.  Might have a problem with phasing and could end up being a cut-off slow moving system.

[Geos]

As much as I love a good snowstorm, as much snow as they are seeing in New England can be very damaging.  Ice dams, gutter damage, even collapsed roofs.  Joe D' Aleo also includes a picture of his

roof.   Love the snow, just hate dealing with its aftermath and damage.

 

                                                                                              

 

 

                

 

Some people don't realize what all that ice does until it's caused a leak in the roof or other damage. Last winter I had to break up an ice dam on my roof that was starting to get out of hand.

Come spring I have to replace a section of gutter that was mangled by the heavy snow early in the month.

[Tom]

Surprised as to how consistent this LES has been in NE IL.  Been getting a nice tranquil Sunday snow event while watching a victorious Hawks team beat the Penguins!

 

Meantime, some of the members from the 12z Euro Ensembles look impressive for late next weekends system.  Majority of them have a Plains/Lakes signature and having the system cut west of the Appalachians.  Looks like the East Coast may catch a break on this one with a transitioning PNA.

[BLIZZARD09]

close to 3 inches down and still snowing heavily here --nice little surprise

[Tom]

close to 3 inches down and still snowing heavily here --nice little surprise

Wow!  That is more than they were forecasting.  The radar has looked very good since this morning right around your area.  Major traffic accidents on the I-90 this morning.  I bet the scenery looks much better now with that new "fluff"!  

[Geos]

Dendrites have been falling here the last 15 minutes. 0.2" so far.

 

Highland Park and Evanston really cashing in.

 

0249 PM SNOW SE HIGHLAND PARK 42.18N 87.81W
02/15/2015 M3.4 INCH LAKE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW STILL FALLING.

 

0146 PM SNOW EVANSTON 42.05N 87.69W
02/15/2015 M3.0 INCH COOK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES FROM 1000 AM TO 130 PM FOR A TOTAL OF 3 INCHES.

[Tom]

Coming down very hard right now!  Huge dendrites...sky is getting pretty dark with this band coming through now.  Heaviest it has fallen all day long.

[Scott26]

The GFS is still showing below zero highs for Wednesday and Thursday. At first I thought it was just overdoing the snow cover, but temps at 850 mb are significantly colder than the Euro/GGEM/NAM.

[bud2380]

Long range looks cold and dry. I'm about ready for spring

[Geos]

0.5" total for today. 

If nothing transpires in the next 10 days, then I'm ready for spring too.

 

Few pics from IL Beach State Park.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 tanking the PNA late month...

[Snowshoe]

Wash, rinse, repeat. More cold and dry weather likely for the upper midwest. Haven't seen a 4" snow since before Thanksgiving. This winter lover is getting ready to punt.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[james1976]

I heard last night's Euro is showing a big snowstorm for some of us for this coming weekend........?

[james1976]

DMX:

THE NEXT POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW PRODUCER LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY   NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF. A SURFACE LOW AND  UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECT OUT OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND  STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS BY  SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS KEEPS MUCH OF THE STATE UNDER A STRONG  AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE DEVELOPING  LOW. ATTM...NOT CONFIDENT WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS THE ECMWF IS  DEPICTING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE LARGE HIGH ADVECTING IN  DECENT DRY AIR AND LIKELY LIMIT THE SNOW. THIS IS CERTAINLY  SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS WHETHER THE SURFACE HIGH  WINS OUT OR NOT.    

[NEJeremy]

Wash, rinse, repeat. More cold and dry weather likely for the upper midwest. Haven't seen a 4" snow since before Thanksgiving. This winter lover is getting ready to punt.

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

 

 

Not seeing a southeast ridge in these maps. Boo!!

[Tom]

00z Euro...

[Tom]

It's going to take a few days to see how this system evolves.  GFS has it pretty disorganized while the Euro wants to develop a SLP in the Plains and heads ENE into the Lower Lakes.

 

CFSv2 starting to look like the Nov/Jan cold spells that dove into the Plains for the month of March.

[CentralNebWeather]

Would sure love if the Euro verified.  Not holding our breath for anything with all of the misses this winter.  Need a storm to track badly.