February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Maxim]

12z Euro Ensembles looking amazing from the Plains/Lakes over the next 2 weeks.  Good luck trying to run a snow storm into the kinda warmth the 12z Euro Ensembles are seeing along the East Coast.  The -PNA is going to be our "friend" finally for the central CONUS.  This will probably be one of the best setups for storms in our region this Winter season.

It took until the beginning of March to get the SE ridge to finally pop... 

[james1976]

Most of those Euro ensembles are quite snowy for most of us in here. Nice to see GFS showing a storm for the midwest in multiple runs.

[winterfreak]

GFS doesn't have a storm. If it does form, as the models have hinted, it looks surpressed.

[Grizzcoat]

AS Phil Collins likes to say--- "Take a look at ME now!!"--

[CentralNebWeather]

If only this would come true we would all be happy.

[winterfreak]

The 384hr GFS lol. Really grasping at straws.

[Grizzcoat]

CAN at 96

[Andrew NE]

Nice runs by the GFS and Canadian tonight for a decent clipper within 100 hours. I hope it holds into early next week.

[james1976]

GFS doesn't have a storm. If it does form, as the models have hinted, it looks surpressed.

What are you talking about???? Look at 00z GFS. Most of us including you get hit good. And the 384 hr GFS isnt "grasping at straws". Its TOTAL SNOWFALL for 384hrs. Model run after model run you are the most negative person ever.

[james1976]

00z GFS has March opening on a wild ride. Gonna be fun watching models this week.

[Tom]

00z Euro...interesting wave showing up on both the Euro/GGEM for IA next Wed...high ratio snows if this materializes...

[james1976]

00z Euro...interesting wave showing up on both the Euro/GGEM for IA next Wed...high ratio snows if this materializes...

Nice! I noticed 00z GFS is pulling this thing a bit eastward as well.

[winterfreak]

What are you talking about???? Look at 00z GFS. Most of us including you get hit good. And the 384 hr GFS isnt "grasping at straws". Its TOTAL SNOWFALL for 384hrs. Model run after model run you are the most negative person ever.

I did and I understand. Maps have been showing that all winter in medium range with not much to show for in reality. It is what it is. If it happens then great if not I'll be ready for an exciting spring storm season. Sorry for my doom and gloom pessimism.

[Grizzcoat]

Past the Clipper -- the Euro matches up pretty well with the GFS for another snow event in the hour 186+ range. This would add on 50% to even doubling current snowfall for the winter for many areas.

[Maxim]

Past the Clipper -- the Euro matches up pretty well with the GFS for another snow event in the hour 186+ range. This would add on 50% to even doubling current snowfall for the winter for many areas.ecmwf_tsnow_mw_41.png

1% chance of verifying

[Niko]

Lets see what February can offer us. Still another week to go with this dull, frigid month. March can be stormy, but does not excite me that much because Spring is right around the corner. Higher sun angle, higher averages, longer days and etc. I will say this: up to March 10th is where I stop thinking winter and start thinking Spring. Anything after that is just a slopfest, as far as snowfall goes.

 

As far as the upcoming weekend storm, well, lets see how that unfolds. Hope it gives us a decent snowfall.

[Tom]

Tweet from Mike Hammernick:

 

 

With 7 days to go, Feb 2015 ranks as Chicago's 3rd coldest on record. 1) 14.6F 1875 2) 15.3F 1936 3) 15.9F 2015* 4) 16.7F 1979 5) 16.8F 1978 

[james1976]

Anyone have snowfall map for 12z GFS? Next weekend looks interesting with a long duration event. Maybe some mixing issues though?

[Tom]

Anyone have snowfall map for 12z GFS? Next weekend looks interesting with a long duration event. Maybe some mixing issues though?

If this system materializes, it will probably be similar to Saturday's system that hit the southern Midwest.  Looks like a sheared wave.  Sky AO won't help and also this system looks like a frontal system that is near Japan.

[james1976]

If this system materializes, it will probably be similar to Saturday's system that hit the southern Midwest.  Looks like a sheared wave.  Sky AO won't help and also this system looks like a frontal system that is near Japan.

With those kind of totals around here, I don't care what kind of system it is. Lol

[Tom]

The beauty Winter can bring....Frozen Niagara Falls...

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Niagara_falls.jpg

[Tom]

12z Euro...snow to rain in N IL....

[Andrew NE]

@Tom. What does the EURO show for the Wednesday clipper in NE and IA? Thanks!

[Tom]

@Tom. What does the EURO show for the Wednesday clipper in NE and IA? Thanks!

Both the GGEM/EURO have it primarily in IA.  12z Euro showing 1-4" in IA, GGEM a bit more aggressive.

[Andrew NE]

Thanks!

[Hawkeye]

It's very nice to see the troughiness shifting to the west by the end of the month.  That will be much more interesting than the bone-dry northwest flow we've been stuck in forever.

[james1976]

So GFS and Euro in sync for next weekend? Looks like a lot of moisture.

[Tom]

CPC outlook looks cold and snowy....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[Maxim]

Remember, the CPC is only accurate if they show wet and cold conditions.

[GDR]

I'm not buying snowy!

[FV-Mike]

I'm not buying snowy!

No reason for you to start now. I don't need to remind you of your posts in the SB storm thread

[Grizzcoat]

Loving the trend E with the mid week Clipper---

[Grizzcoat]

18Z GFS--

[james1976]

Loving the trend E with the mid week Clipper--- USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif

00z NAM came east as well.

[winterfreak]

Sweet nice little 2-3" mood snow. I would take it.

[Grizzcoat]

1% chance of verifying

Your on. 99:1 odds I get. Wanna bet $10???

[Grizzcoat]

CAN clipper---

[Grizzcoat]

UK MET Clipper-

[Grizzcoat]

00Z Euro-- Clipper

[Grizzcoat]

things are starting to come in line-- 06Z Nam- will the trend E continue?? The ratios with this should be at least 15:1 to even 22:1 at the tail end. Tally Ho!!!-