February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Latest CFSv2 now has 3 out of 4 members showing a massive snow cover by March 1st....ridiculous cold continues to show up.

[Tom]

Chicago could end up Top 5 coldest February on record depending on how severe the arctic shots become over the coming 2 weeks.  If the snow pack builds in the coming days, this could get ugly.

[Tony]

OUCH!!

[james1976]

What a harsh evening out here. Temps dropped to 10 above with 30-40 wind gusts and snow showers.

[Grizzcoat]

Houston-- we have a problem.

[Tom]

GFS/GGEM/EURO all showing a system next weekend somewhere in the central CONUS that will tug down some of the coldest air of this season.  Check out the 00z Euro Ensembles.  It's going to be a brutal finish to this month.

[SE Wisconsin]

According to my humble calculations and a LRC cycle of around 47-48 days (per Gary Lezak's post a few days ago) the Upper Midwest should be due for a wet system around the late February time frame.

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies continue to show no sign of Winter letting go anytime soon over the next 4 weeks.  Towards the end of February the Pacific jet is showing signs of it slamming into Cali which should provide some interesting systems to monitor down the road.  Check out that blocking HP near Alaska/NW NAMER...doesn't budge at all.

 

Both the CFSv2/JMA are showing some sings of the SE ridge building as we head closer towards March in the southeast.  By that time, Spring warmth will begin to build and create huge temperature contrasts by late Feb/early March.  Recipe for explosive storm systems.

[Niko]

There is a Blizzard Watch for the Boston area.   Its never ending for them this year, 8-14inches+ is expected there. They are seriously buried.

[GDR]

They could have over 45 inches in the next 17 days

[Niko]

It is brutal outside. Currently @ 4F. Going into the minus single digits tonight. To be exact, -6F!

 

Still plenty of snowcover around.

[NEJeremy]

Saw a rather large group of robins this morning. I know they're supposed to be the first "sign" of spring coming around the corner. It wasn't even that warm here this morning(low 20s) when I saw them, so was pretty surprised. Ready to be done with this craptastc winter. I am getting the spring, severe weather, storm chasing itch!!

[tim the weatherman]

there is one sign that spring is around the corner is with the robins and the mourning doves begin to come out in february early march and migrate back in late august so that means that is a sign of winter.

[Tom]

Wildest runs of this Winter yet on the 12z GFS and 06z CFSv2....Would be an unthinkable arctic attack Week 1-2 and what's even more intriguing is the potential for some decent snow systems.  I'm not going to get bent out of shape if we missed this coming storm.  The pattern ahead is looking very interesting if you like all aspects of Winter.  GFS/EURO Ensembles are in remarkable agreement that this cold pattern is here to stay for a while.

 

Anyhow, here is the latest 06z CFSv2 run for the rest of Feb, next 45 days and its still painting snow on the ground by March 30th which is a cold signal!  SE ridge is becoming more evident as we get closer towards March.

[Tom]

Check out the 10mb warming continuously persistent over North America.  Some of the coldest air of this season is going to brew up in Canada early next week, possibly even colder during the last week of the month.  The warming in the upper atmosphere is lining up quite well where the coldest air will end up being over the next 2-4 weeks.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.shtml 

[Tony]

We just need some storms to get brewing as long as the cold is around but it sure doesn't look too exciting for the next week or so. Hoping models will change in the next couple days.

[Tony]

Looks like we could see some LE snow showers Sunday.

[mlgamer]

Here we've made it through Nov, Dec, Jan and the first half of Feb, with nothing more than a 2" sloppy snow in mid Dec and a seasonal total of 5.3 inches.  This winter has been a total joke.  Looking forward to spring.........

[Maxim]

We need a -PNA, enough said.

[Geos]

Under performer for temps today. I think so far the high has been 20°. -5° this morning before sunrise. I think if anyone gets any accumulation in IL from LES this weekend it will be eastern Cook County.

 

This winter has had sort bursts of exciting weather followed by long boring stretches. In another boring stretch for sure now. 

[SE Wisconsin]

Wow, eerily quiet on this forum!  I have a request for some of you meteorological experts out there.  I'm skiing in the American Birkebeiner cross country ski race next Saturday and I'm wondering what to expect up there in far NW WI.  First off, I'm glad the race is not today!  Right now at 8am it's -8 in Hayward, WI with WNW winds of 25mph.  Ouch!  The point-and-click forecasts show more moderate temperatures in the teens by next Saturday.  However, I don't usually put a lot of faith in the point-and-click weather apps this far out.  Any input would be appreciated.  Thanks

[jaster220]

Not that anyone cares, but this clipper has been generous over here in SMI. Have gotten almost 5 inches since yesterday evening and had +SN for about 90 mins when the arctic front came through. I live right in town (old close homes) and even here had whiteout conditions! Snow OTG now averaging about 15". Worst conditions for any of my addresses since Dec 2000 Bliz! Very nice VD treat to wake up to over here in SWMI.

 

Cheers!

[Tom]

Wow, eerily quiet on this forum!  I have a request for some of you meteorological experts out there.  I'm skiing in the American Birkebeiner cross country ski race next Saturday and I'm wondering what to expect up there in far NW WI.  First off, I'm glad the race is not today!  Right now at 8am it's -8 in Hayward, WI with WNW winds of 25mph.  Ouch!  The point-and-click forecasts show more moderate temperatures in the teens by next Saturday.  However, I don't usually put a lot of faith in the point-and-click weather apps this far out.  Any input would be appreciated.  Thanks

According to the latest GFS runs, looks there looks to be another arctic blast brewing next weekend and Hayward, WI looks to be sub-zero Saturday morning and single digits during the day.

 

Not that anyone cares, but this clipper has been generous over here in SMI. Have gotten almost 5 inches since yesterday evening and had +SN for about 90 mins when the arctic front came through. I live right in town (old close homes) and even here had whiteout conditions! Snow OTG now averaging about 15". Worst conditions for any of my addresses since Dec 2000 Bliz! Very nice VD treat to wake up to over here in SWMI.

 

Cheers!

I was actually thinking about you down there.  We had some brief snow showers around here but nothing compared to what you guys are experiencing in SW MI.  It must be crazy looking out there.  Post some pics if you can.

[Tom]

Over the last couple days, the GFS has been pretty consistent on ushering some brutal frigid air next Wed/Thu for our region.  The model may be over doing it a bit, but wouldn't be surprised to see the coldest air of the season next week.

[Scott26]

Over the last couple days, the GFS has been pretty consistent on ushering some brutal frigid air next Wed/Thu for our region.  The model may be over doing it a bit, but wouldn't be surprised to see the coldest air of the season next week.

Yeah, it shows both Wednesday and Thursday with highs below zero with wind chills between -25 to -35.

[Tom]

Yeah, it shows both Wednesday and Thursday with highs below zero with wind chills between -25 to -35.

Yup, looks nasty.  BTW, are you getting hit by this snow squall???  Man, it def looks beautiful out there when the visibility drops and the powder blowing around.  I was hoping to cash in on some decent squalls today to make the scene look better and hopefully put a layer of powder on top of the ice glacier.

[Scott26]

Yup, looks nasty.  BTW, are you getting hit by this snow squall???  Man, it def looks beautiful out there when the visibility drops and the powder blowing around.  I was hoping to cash in on some decent squalls today to make the scene look better and hopefully put a layer of powder on top of the ice glacier.

Yeah I did, it was pretty sweet. Sun is out now over here.

[SE Wisconsin]

Hey Tom,

 

Thanks for your reply to my post on conditions in NW WI next week.  Unfortunately, you're confirming my suspicions regarding the long-range forecast.  I'm thinking hard wax on the skis, toe warmers in the boots and layered clothing are the way to go for next Saturday.  

[Snowlover76]

Over the last couple days, the GFS has been pretty consistent on ushering some brutal frigid air next Wed/Thu for our region. The model may be over doing it a bit, but wouldn't be surprised to see the coldest air of the season next week.

Cold out here too?

[Tom]

Cold out here too?

You guys will be riding the edge with the lack of any snow cover, but still fairly cold.  Some impressive cold showing up and looks like we are going to be locked into a wintry pattern for the foreseeable future.  Just need to see some snow systems to start popping up.

[Hawkeye]

Next Saturday nw Wisconsin will likely be cold, but it appears that area will be in between arctic blasts so it could be a lot worse.

 

The rest of the month looks pretty brutal.  The GFS and GEM show another pocket of -30 850mb air dropping south into the upper midwest at day 10.  This pattern is locked in.

[tbone8]

 

La Porte County Sheriff's Office

 

STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED

La Porte County is now under a state of emergency. All citizens are to remain off the roadways. Further, the sheriffs department will NOT respond to property damage crashes. We ask that the drivers exchange information. Roadways are in horrible condition, the department has been overwhelmed with personal injury crashes, including two involving our deputies who were injured.

Again we ask that YOU STAY OFF THE ROADWAY. Don't try to generate a justification for being out. STAY HOME

[Maxim]

wagons south

 

[tbone8]

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THISEVENING......WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THISEVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED ABLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/THIS EVENING. A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THISWINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS IN EFFECT FROM10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SUNDAY.

[Geos]

Brutal out there today. Had a few snow squalls this morning that looked impressive for a little while. 0.1" only though.

 

That would be really amazing if Kentucky got up to 20" of snow!

[james1976]

18z GFS is terrible. Way cold and totally dry for the next 2 weeks.

[Tom]

Anybody want to argue the LRC's long range accuracy???  We are in the midst of the cold phase and this should last through the end of the month.  Plains will see a big rebound end of the month.  Hopefully we can see some snow systems in between the arctic onslaughts throughout the remaining 2 weeks of this month.

[BLIZZARD09]

Without snow who needs this cold?

[GDR]

Yeah who wants just cold? Let's move on to spring already!

[Snowlover76]

Yeah who wants just cold? Let's move on to spring already!

I like the cold