February 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

18z GFS...looking alot like the Euro Ensembles...nice to see it showing up each run...

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015020812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015020812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_36.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015020812/gfs_asnow_ncus_37.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015020812/gfs_asnow_ncus_41.pngcheck this one out tom.

[Tom]

We could have quite the "bowling ball" pattern in the Week 1-2 range.  Someone is going to bowl a XXX...strike!!!!

[james1976]

What I'm noticing on the GFS is the northern stream is looking much stronger for the next Mon/Tue system compared to the Super Bowl storm.

[Tom]

What I'm noticing on the GFS is the northern stream is looking much stronger for the next Mon/Tue system compared to the Super Bowl storm.

As long as we can get a system to phase, it will tug up moisture from the GOM...

[Sven]

We could have quite the "bowling ball" pattern in the Week 1-2 range.  Someone is going to bowl a XXX...strike!!!!

Us Nebraska people are hoping for a turkey. 

[Money]

smh another miss to the south

 

This winter sucks

[Snowshoe]

I've been bowling 7-10 splits all year.

[Tom]

Plenty of time to see how these systems evolve, esp towards the last 10 days or so of the month.  Check out the individual GFS runs of the PNA and how they are trending negative.  SE ridge developing???  Could have some big time last season cutters.  There is a storm system I'm watching around the last week of February that correlates with a storm showing up consistently near Japan over the last couple days.

[Tom]

Check out the trend of the CFSv2 over the last 7 days, 3 days and most recent run for March...I don't think any Tulips will be blossoming in this type of pattern.

[winterfreak]

Another 33 and rain event in the works. Sigh eerily similar to nightmarish superbowl storm.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

smh another miss to the south

 

This winter sucks

 

We can hope that since we'll be in the latter half of February at that point, maybe this one can trend north and spread the wealth that direction at least.

[Money]

Sub 990 on the GFS from STL east into Indiana or so.

 

6-12 + from NE through N. IL and into S. MI nearly identical to the Feb 1st storm 

[CentralNebWeather]

February 16-17 looks promising. Something to track in fhe next week. Colorado low?

[Tom]

00z GFS trending stronger each run with the Fat Tuesday system.  This run, the GFS is producing Blizzard like conditions in KS/MO/IL/IN/MI..gusts up to 50mph showing up in IL/IN/MI.

 

Another 1-2 Feet Blizzard????

[Tom]

It's wild to see this pattern in the models when we are still a week out trending stronger each run.  Still way to far out to get excited, but certainly another potential major system on the table to affect the central CONUS early the following week.

[james1976]

Yup, looking like a monster already.

[Money]

EURO is going to be strong again.

 

996 in SW KS at HR 192 

[james1976]

what  did Euro and CMC show?

[james1976]

06z GFS misses the phase. Storm is weaker and heads to the east quickly.

[Seahawkfan]

That was fun Party over non event February 16th 17th storm

[WildWisconsinWeather]

That was fun Party over non event February 16th 17th storm

 

Oh my, hope you are being sarcastic.

[Maxim]

I bet this storm is a MSP special. Absolutely no way this would whiff us to the south.

[GDR]

[Hawkeye]

It only took a couple days with a temp in the upper 30s to mid 40s to melt at least half of our snow.  Hopefully, we can get one more period of good snow later in February or early March before spring arrives.

[james1976]

That was fun Party over non event February 16th 17th storm

LMAO.....still a week away and that was one model run.

[Tony]

Looks more like an over running event on the 12z GFS.

[james1976]

Storm is looking weak now. No phasing. But still a week away.

[james1976]

Last night's Euro and CMC must have sucked. Not one mention of it.

[NEJeremy]

12Z CMC shows everything pretty far south for Nebraska anyways- actually shows snow all the way down to Houston next week. Meanwhile, Boston is going to get hit again this Thursday/Friday it looks like.

[Snowlover76]

12Z CMC shows everything pretty far south for Nebraska anyways- actually shows snow all the way down to Houston next week. Meanwhile, Boston is going to get hit again this Thursday/Friday it looks like.

I'm starting to get sick of seeing Boston cash in. 

 

can't wait for them to get a 55 degree snow eating fog to take all their snow away. 

[Tony]

A lot of the GEFS members show a boatload of snow for many in our area so I thought I would post 1 of those maps. Not saying it's going to happen but the potential is out there for a couple big storms to pop up this month. Of course the winner is the Massachusetts area but what else is new. 

[gosaints]

I'm starting to get sick of seeing Boston cash in. 

 

can't wait for them to get a 55 degree snow eating fog to take all their snow away. 

well they have a 40 inche depth right now

[Tom]

well they have a 40 inche depth right now

67" and counting since 17 days ago...must be an amazing scenery out there!

 

A lot of the GEFS members show a boatload of snow for many in our area so I thought I would post 1 of those maps. Not saying it's going to happen but the potential is out there for a couple big storms to pop up this month. Of course the winner is the Massachusetts area but what else is new. 

Thanks for posting Tony.  Ensembles are the way to go as it was a good idea with the Super Bowl storm 4-5 days out when the Ensembles were showing huge hits and operational models backing down.  Overnight Euro Ensembles also showing some big hits.

[Snowlover76]

well they have a 40 inche depth right now

and yet some are complaining about the Euro whiffing them on Sunday.  I am sorry but complaining when you have 40" OTG over only getting 6" from another event, means you dont deserve anything.  That is weenieism to the extreme right there. 

[Tony]

I'm glad the EURO has backed off of the artic air this weekend  Keep that where it belongs...in the Artic!!

[Tom]

I'm glad the EURO has backed off of the artic air this weekend  Keep that where it belongs...in the Artic!!

I wouldn't say it backed off, it actually got worse for Sat/Sat night!

[Tony]

I wouldn't say it backed off, it actually got worse for Sat/Sat night!

Actually, that was a sarcastic post...the "oh my" face! 

[Tony]

I was looking at the SB storm as it has some characteristics to this upcoming storm. From early on I believe the GEM and UKIE did not waffle much and were the most consistent with track and strength of the storm. The Euro about 5 days out lost the storm completely so expect the same this go around. GFS had it in the beginning and then suppressed this into nothing only to come around again to what it first showed. The GEFS ensembles did pretty well compared to the operational runs. Lots of folks were cancelling this storm but we all know what happened in the end.

 

So, expect much waffling with most of the models and lets see which one is the most consistent with track and strength. So far I think GFS has been the most consistent.

[Trinomial]

What was the status of the 18z GFS run? I am just wondering if it was suppressed. Either way, there's still a long time to go!