Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 A few days ago there were signs of a potential major storm system to affect a large portion of the Central CONUS. After reviewing last nights global models/ensembles, the vast majority of them are trying to converge on a widespread system over the Central CONUS. Let's discuss this storm potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDizBliz420 Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Another big snow for Chicago I think! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 As a Cub fan I'm forever the optimist. "Anything that can happen will" and "Wait till next year (storm)" are all a part of my lexicon. I don't see how this can possibly come this far north with a high pressure like this bearing down. But until there is absolutely no chance...I'll follow along.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015021100/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_us_8.png Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 06z GFS caving back to it's original idea Sunday night of a snowstorm from NE to the Lower Lakes...almost very similar to what happened with the Super Bowl storm. We are on the verge of a major shift into a colder pattern in the central CONUS as the LRC enters the 2-3 week "cold phase". Usually nature likes to develop a system when a shift of this magnitude develops so that the atmosphere can balance out. What better way to do this and see nature blossom a major storm system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 00z Euro Ensemble/Control... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowa12 Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 How much is most of the models showing for iowa? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Look at all that moisture on the 0z Euro...all I can say is this is going to hit hard for many! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GFS is pretty much identical to 6z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GFS is pretty much identical to 6z GFS A little further S as the Arctic Express is starting to overwhelm the system. System needs to continue to strengthen- rather then the weakening it exhibits once it gets in S.MO N.AR-- if it does continue to strengthen -- the sky is the limit. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 With a little better phasing on the 12z GFS, this will become a monster storm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Sweet hit on the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's going to be a very long week tracking this storm but I have to say I like what I am seeing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good signs seeing the GFS continue hinting at this storm cutting ENE. It pretty much misses the big cities along the east coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's going to be a very long week tracking this storm but I have to say I like what I am seeing.GFS already showing 12"+ totals this far out. If this trend continues, can you imagine what it will show on Monday??? Woop! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GFS is pretty much identical to 6z GFS Money, you will be in the game by this time tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 umm wow at new england just wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I love the look of this storm as it ejects out on the lee side of the Rockies near CO/KS and digs a little south before turning the corner. I remember these classic Pan Handle Hook systems that just dump massive snowfall totals from the Plains to the Lakes. If the 12z GFS didn't leave behind a small piece in the 4 corners, it would have hooked farther NW. Stronger storm, the farther NW the track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS already showing 12"+ totals this far out. If this trend continues, can you imagine what it will show on Monday??? Woop! Yep, abundant moisture with a huge temperature gradient will make for a very explosive system. This could be huge if all comes together just right and whatever snow does fall will be staying around for quite sometime cause the cold that is coming is just WOW! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Right now, happy to be on the north end of this storm this far out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 You never want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. You usually want to be just north of the main snow band, so I think Iowa/Chicago is looking really good 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I sorta remember this piece of energy around NYE that wasn't much, if anything significant in Cycle #2. Cycle #3 looks to deliver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hope to see the 12z GGEM back on track after it's fluky run last night.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ukie is suppressed. Doesn't really have a storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GGEM looks suppressed.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like model waffling continues... fun times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GGEM...at least its starting to show a storm again... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Does anyone have the GEFS Ensembles??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM ensembles are WAY N and NW of the OP. 2 or 3 are sub 985 over Chicago, and nearly all of them are farther NW than OP GGEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015021112_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_144.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 144: http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015021112_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gemglb@gem007_144.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015021112_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem008@gem016_144.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 http://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/2015021112_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@gem017@gem020_144.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ensembles have been doing a much better job handling complex systems as such. It doesn't surprise me that most of them are NW of OP. Euro Ensembles have always been NW of OP and now the OP has trended NW and stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 12Z GFS good run for many Nebraska people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 I really worry about suppression especially further west with the super cold air coming. I have a feeling the original low is going to eject too far south for us in Nebraska and thereafter it could move more north depending on SE ridge, strength of the storm etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS Ensembles 72 hr precip: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_12z/f174.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 You are correct, that would be my main concern. I usually have a negative thought about all storms that we are in line for: too much cold air, not enough moisture, low too far south, t-storms further south that rob it of moisture. Still several days to track. Looks like we might also want to focus on the Feb. 21-22 time frame but that is way to far ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 lol euro shows another 12-18 for Boston on the 2/15 storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 One of our local mets mentioned the 12Z models trending south a bit and that he disagrees as his "in-house techniques" don't support a south shift. Interesting..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2015 Report Share Posted February 11, 2015 That's one heck of a storm EURO is showing for the east coast on the 15th. L gets down to sub 960. Wonder how this will affect our potential storm down the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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