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Presidents Day - Fat Tuesday Potential Significant Winter Storm

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Snowshoe
Snowshoe

Speaking of Boston...crazy!!!  

Tom
Tom

Boy, you and some others on this sub-forum def need to build some Patience.  We are still 4 days away from this system developing in the Plains.  Geeze louize...wait till all the players are on the fi

Tony
Tony

It's going to be a very long week tracking this storm but I have to say I like what I am seeing.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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It's all going to come down to if this storm Phases in the Plains.  Took a look at the 00z Euro Ensemble members and the ones that were phased were farther NW than the OP.  The models seem to have a sheared system and the northern stream is over powering any true storm development.  With nearly identical teleconnections as the Super Bowl storm, would not be shocked if this storm phases better.  Need to wait till all the players are better sampled.  The northern piece is still in the GOA and southern piece in N Mexico.  I don't think a storm comes up this far north, but folks in the central Plains/Midwest still have a shot at seeing a snowstorm.

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Sven Newbie

Sven

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Let us remember we are just using the best available educated guess system, "models," in an attempt to locate where the most snow is going to occur. Give her a few days, the super bowl system way over performed in many spots, and would not be shocked if this did the same. 

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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Boy I guess the LRC is nice to show us when there may be a storm somewhere in the US but beyond that it hasn't been too good on the last couple of storms. The storm of the 8-9th was a no show for any of us and this storm isn't going to bring anyone snow unless you are in Oklahoma or Arkansas and then the Northeast. I know we're supposed to be heading into an active pattern, but it's easy to see that's no guarantee it's going to be active for any of us on this forum. This split flow has happened before this winter and was supposed to bring us so much snow, but that didn't happen the first time so I guess if this is the LRC cycling back through on this pattern than we shouldn't expect much this time around either.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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That is one nasty looking trough on the 12z Euro Ensembles...haven't seen one of this magnitude all Winter long.  Looks a bit neg tilt...

 

FWIW, JB had a nice post about this storm and said there are 3 separate pieces to the puzzle with this storm system and models will obviously have a tough time trying to figure this all out.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/eps_z500a_noram_17(12).png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Time to cancel thread? Looks like minimal impact, if that, to anyone on the subforum.

Boy, you and some others on this sub-forum def need to build some Patience.  We are still 4 days away from this system developing in the Plains.  Geeze louize...wait till all the players are on the field, then you can decide to throw in the towel.

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winterfreak Rising Star

winterfreak

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Boy, you and some others on this sub-forum def need to build some Patience. We are still 4 days away from this system developing in the Plains. Geeze louize...wait till all the players are on the field, then you can decide to throw in the towel.[/quote

I'm sorry lol. Yeah I understand it's just nothing good has come out of any storm around here this winter. I guess I just kind of expect an unfavorable outcome at this point. That being said, NAM isn't horrible and GFS is showing signs that things may change.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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Tom is that energy that gives snows to OMA over to DSM that  I showed above even part of the main system or is it more clipper like???

In reading the AFD's that appears to be some warm advection type snows from an initial piece of energy Saturday night- Sunday morning. Back when the models were showing snow from the main storm, that snow fell later on Monday into Tuesday so I don't think this snow is part of what was supposed to be the big one.

 

"A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST

ALONG WARM FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE REGION."

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Tom is that energy that gives snows to OMA over to DSM that  I showed above even part of the main system or is it more clipper like???

Could be a combination of what NE Jeremy just posted and the northern piece coming off of the GOA Low.  The models seem to be focusing the main energy from the southern piece which is still located near Baja/N Mexico region.

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