gabel23 Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Yikes!! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=114&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_114_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150505+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Yikes!! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=114&image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_114_precip_ptot.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150505+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=modelWould not surprise me seeing those totals somewhere. But for the love of god, can we get some sunshine around here?! We have a fire ready, but no matches to light it. This whole system could be a bust severe weather wise because of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 The Blackhills look like they will get dumped on with Snow! Some parts of NE may get in on the action. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015050612/gfs_asnow_us_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Some pretty strong wording coming from the SPC boys about today. If we get some clearing things might get really interesting today and into tonight. Upgraded to "Enhanced" for this afternoon. NEB/KS...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH TODAY IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KS...ANDWILL ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEB ANDCENTRAL/EASTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOWLEVEL WINDS OVER THIS REGION WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE60S...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000J/KG. 12Z GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING ISOLATEDTHUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS BY MID AFTERNOON. FORECASTSOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL AND DEEPLAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL ANDPOSSIBLY STRONG TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO TRACK INTOSOUTH-CENTRAL NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED SIGNIFICANTSEVERE THREAT. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 12z Euro really cranking out the snowfall totals and precip in the Rockies/Plains respectively... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Some breaks in the overcast today. Yesterday was chilly and damp with temps barely at 50F. Much better today with temps near 66F or so and much much warmer tomorrow and Friday with temps approaching well into the 80's. Break out the swimsuits!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 12z Euro really cranking out the snowfall totals and precip in the Rockies/Plains respectively...Is this for this weekend system? DMX hitting the "severe" word pretty hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Any word on next winters outlook??!! Just Kiddin!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 That disturbance down off the southeast coastline might affect people on the coast, but, so far they are saying that it would not develop into anything tropical. Lets wait and see on that. You never know with these systems. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Lake Michigan is a curse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Crazy difference in temperature in NE IL.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Lake breeze boundary can be seen easily on the radar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Looking ahead - Any initial thoughts on what Memorial Day weekend might look like around these parts? How about N. Wisconsin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Looking ahead - Any initial thoughts on what Memorial Day weekend might look like around these parts? How about N. Wisconsin? that's like three weeks out, you won't be able to get an accurate forecast... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 6, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 Looking ahead - Any initial thoughts on what Memorial Day weekend might look like around these parts? How about N. Wisconsin?I've been reading Gary Lezak's blog regarding the LRC and he is forecasting a wetter/cooler pattern near the Lakes around that time frame. I looked up Hayward, WI forecast on his site during this weekend and it has low 60's (cold for the time of year). The colder than normal phase of the LRC should be cycling through at this time. Let's see if the models start picking up on that. CFSv2 has been going back and forth during this period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted May 6, 2015 Report Share Posted May 6, 2015 that's like three weeks out, you won't be able to get an accurate forecast... Sorry - I should have bolded: INITIAL THOUGHTS and MIGHT LOOK LIKE. Anyways, with Memorial Day weekend rolling around 2 weeks from Friday, does anyone have any thoughts as to what we might be in store for? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 anyone know if anything was confirmed in Lincln? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 anyone know if anything was confirmed in Lincln? just radar indicated, but wouldnt surprise me if there was a quick spin-up just nw of lincoln near malcolm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 just radar indicated, but wouldnt surprise me if there was a quick spin-up just nw of lincoln near malcolmI heard from someone at work that there was something near the airport. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 I heard from someone at work that there was something near the airport. just saw there was a funnel cloud report just west of the airport (where i was-working) at that time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 went chasing today and saw 7 tornadoes in northern Kansas including a huge wedge long track tornado near Courtland, NE. Was within 1/4 mile of it, closest I've ever been to a tornado!! First the inflow and then the RFD was insane! I'll post some pics and video when I get some time. Time to go to bed! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Looks like Sunday may be a day for severe weather for many of us on the forum. Be interesting to how it all plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Sorry - I should have bolded: INITIAL THOUGHTS and MIGHT LOOK LIKE. Anyways, with Memorial Day weekend rolling around 2 weeks from Friday, does anyone have any thoughts as to what we might be in store for?Can't even give "initial thoughts", or what it "might look like". Anything can change between now and then, so it would be pretty pointless to listen to any "initial thoughts". Why can't you just wait a week and ask again? Maybe then someone can get a better handle on what things might be looking like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Can't even give "initial thoughts", or what it "might look like". Anything can change between now and then, so it would be pretty pointless to listen to any "initial thoughts". Why can't you just wait a week and ask again? Maybe then someone can get a better handle on what things might be looking like.Or you can just not get butthurt. No one put you in charge. Let the man speak his mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Received 1.3" from yesterday morning up until this morning. Of course it's not quiet as much as southeast Nebraska were some places received 7-9" of rain! Republic County in Kansas was in a tornado warning 13 different times yesterday, that's insane! This was certainly a surprise outbreak for a small area in Nebraska and Kansas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Just crazy amounts of rain! JEFF003 : FAIRBURY 11.4 NW * : 10.47 / 0.0 / MM / MMJEFF021 : DAYKIN 5.3 E * : 9.60 / 0.0 / MM / MMSALI003 : WESTERN 1.2 SE * : 9.50 / 0.0 / MM / MMSALI030 : WESTERN 4.4 NNE * : 9.15 / 0.0 / MM / MMSALI011 : TOBIAS 4.7 SSW * : 9.05 / 0.0 / MM / MMJEFF014 : DAYKIN 1.2 SW * : 8.97 / 0.0 / MM / MMNELA24 : HALLAM 0.2 NW * : 8.10 / MM / MM / MMSALI005 : TOBIAS 1.8 E * : 8.02 / 0.0 / MM / MMLANC067 : LINCOLN 3.9 W * : 7.71 / 0.0 / MM / MMNELA23 : LINCOLN 1.7 SW * : 7.43 / 0.0 / MM / MMLANC001 : LINCOLN 2.7 SSW * : 6.87 / 0.0 / MM / MMLANC006 : LINCOLN 1.4 ENE * : 6.82 / 0.0 / MM / MMLANC012 : LINCOLN 5.8 WSW * : 6.80 / 0.0 / MM / MMNELA05 : LINCOLN 5.7 S * : 6.31 / MM / MM / MMLANC049 : LINCOLN 4.3 SSE * : 6.28 / 0.0 / MM / MMNELA15 : LINCOLN 5.2 SE * : 6.10 / MM / MM / MMSALI002 : MILFORD 5.9 SSE * : 6.10 / 0.0 / MM / MMCASS010 : EAGLE 1.2 SW * : 6.08 / 0.0 / MM / MMNESL02 : CRETE 4.0 N * : 6.05 / M 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 had 4.14" of rain here overnight! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Or you can just not get butthurt. No one put you in charge. Let the man speak his mind.I have no idea what you're talking about, was merely stating facts. You're not very smart apparently if you think I was getting butthurt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 analog for Saturday http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/F072/SP_072/SVRgfs212F072.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Most of IA/IL/S. WI are under a risk already on Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 DMX going pretty heavy on the 'severe' wording for Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Can't even give "initial thoughts", or what it "might look like". Anything can change between now and then, so it would be pretty pointless to listen to any "initial thoughts". Why can't you just wait a week and ask again? Maybe then someone can get a better handle on what things might be looking like. Do you think we should impose a rule that no one is allowed to look ahead and discuss possible weather scenarios beyond a certain timeframe? Or do you just want to police the forum at your own discretion? I'm fine with either, just let me know so I don't step out of line again. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 had 4.14" of rain here overnight! Nice dude! My rain gauge that goes to 6" was overfilled, given my location on the nw side I'd say we got about 7". insane. So many road closures today, my friend even got called off work because roads are still impossible to pass! Just this week alone, we've had 4 tornado warnings in Lancaster, and over 7" rain in most areas. Surprised we've been targeted so much recently! EDIT: SnowLover76, you should repost that link, I wanna see it! Also, still getting some strong wording for Saturday/Sunday. Though we were taken out of the risk, I think it's due to timing being late at night/early in the morning. SPC: D4/SUNACTIVE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE ANDEXTENSIVE TRAILING COLD FRONT...FROM NEB/IA SOUTH TO ERN OK AND INTOTX...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS GIVENLIFT WITH THESE FEATURES SPREADING EAST INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLEAIRMASS. SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE NEAR THE LOW CENTER ANDWARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVERVALLEY...FROM ERN NEB TO IA...DURING THE DAY. FARTHER SOUTH ALONGTHE COLD FRONT...CLUSTERS OF ORGANIZED STORMS...OR PERHAPS A BROKENSQUALL LINE...WILL ALSO POSE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ANDHAIL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Sounds like some of you are out or near out of the drought now.Never seen a 24 hour period with 7" of rain before - wow! A balmy day, but not 80° with a SE wind. In the 60s in Racine currently. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Sounds like some of you are out or near out of the drought now.Never seen a 24 hour period with 7" of rain before - wow! A balmy day, but not 80° with a SE wind. In the 60s in Racine currently.Couple years ago in June i got 8.5" in ONE morning! Flooding everywhere...including my basement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Couple years ago in June i got 8.5" in ONE morning! Flooding everywhere...including my basement. September of 2008, I had 8" and change over 48 hours from a tropical storm remnants. That caused a lot of flooding that last for days. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Here's a picture I just took about an hour ago. This is less than a mile away from my house, legitimately looks like a lake, but there is actually no water here normally! Crazy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 7, 2015 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Here's a picture I just took about an hour ago. This is less than a mile away from my house, legitimately looks like a lake, but there is actually no water here normally! Crazy. D**n son.jpgProof in the pudding the pattern usually flips after a dry Winter like you guys have seen. Just like last year, a wet/cool summer on the way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 Here's a picture I just took about an hour ago. This is less than a mile away from my house, legitimately looks like a lake, but there is actually no water here normally! Crazy. D**n son.jpgwhere is that in Lincoln? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted May 7, 2015 Report Share Posted May 7, 2015 where is that in Lincoln?right next to the 27th st exit off of I-80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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