Tom Posted June 20, 2015 Report Share Posted June 20, 2015 Interesting note from Mike Hammernick...avg Lake Michigan temp (51F) which is equivalent to late Oct/early Nov levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 20, 2015 Interesting note from Mike Hammernick...avg Lake Michigan temp (51F) which is equivalent to late Oct/early Nov levels. Running as cold as last year too. Was at the lakefront this morning and it was chilly down there with some patchy light fog blowing on the wind. Since then it has warmed up, but now raining. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted June 21, 2015 Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 Looks like a potential severe weather outbreak on Monday From SPC: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif?1434876413552 ...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AS AN IMPRESSIVE 60 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F WHICH SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...MODEL FORECASTS SHOW IMPRESSIVE SHEAR PROFILES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM THAT APPEARS QUITE ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET COUPLET. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. CONSIDERING THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...THE NAM AND GFS APPEAR TO THE BE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND ORGANIZATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. MANY PROBLEMS EXIST FOR DETERMINING THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR SEVERE INCLUDING 1) HOW MORNING CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE SETUP IN THE AFTERNOON AND 2) HOW FAR NORTH WILL THE CAPPING INVERSION IMPEDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A MORNING MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL TRACK ESEWD FROM ERN MN AND ERN IA ACROSS SRN WI...NRN IL AND INTO IND AROUND MIDDAY. FURTHER WEST BEHIND THE MORNING MCS...AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM NRN MO NWD INTO ERN IA WITH NEW CONVECTION INITIATING ON THE NRN END OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN FAR SE MN AND NWRN WI DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD AND GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ON MONDAY FOR MADISON WI SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES WITH MLCAPE ABOVE 4000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 60 TO 70 KT. THIS WOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS COULD ORGANIZE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN WI AND CROSSING LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI BY EARLY EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND A LONG-TRACK TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS FOR A SEVERE WIND PRODUCING LINEAR MCS THAT MOVES QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON REACHING LOWER MI BY EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGH-END EVENT FOR EITHER TORNADOES OR WIND DAMAGE...THE ENHANCED AREA WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST OF WI AND LOWER MI WITH THE SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA ALSO INCLUDING SERN MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 21, 2015 Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 The Summer Solstice officially begins at 11:38 am CST today along with the longest day of the year! Can't believe how fast this year is going by and how darn WET it has been around here. I think it may be a little wetter than last year by this time. Future Radar showing 2 lines of storms in the early afternoon for N IL and then again later in the evening. This summer season certainly hasn't been a boring one that's for sure. Last nights vivid lighting display was very impressive. Perfect beach day today and ample sunshine. Happy Father's Day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 21, 2015 Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 Looking out towards the 4th of July weekend, the cold phase of the LRC will be returning as the NW NAMER ridge pops and a trough begins to develop over the eastern CONUS. Hopefully it wont disrupt any plans near the Lakes region. So far there is much discrepancy between the Euro/GFS in the extended. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 Looking like a enhanced risk of severe weather into northern IL also tomorrow. Newest SPC day 2 mentioning the expansion of the moderate risk area. At 7pm tomorrow. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE N-CNTRL/NE STATES... ..SUMMARY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...SOME OF WHICH SHOULD BE INTENSE...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EVENING ON MONDAY. ..UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STRONGLY CONSIDERED AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WITH POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERS OF INTENSE SEVERE STORMS WITH ALL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. BUT WILL DEFER GIVEN ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EVOLUTION OF LATE D1 CONVECTION WITH ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECT ON THE DEGREE OF DOWNSTREAM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...ALONG WITH TIMING OF THE PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WITH RESPECT TO PEAK HEATING. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED MCV FROM LATE D1/EARLY D2 AND APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WOULD ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL WAA OF THE RICHLY BUOYANT AIR MASS CURRENTLY PRESENT OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY. AVAILABLE CAMS VARY MARKEDLY WITH THE DAYTIME EVOLUTION OF AN MCS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN/NRN IA. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK ON THE EDGE OF A ROBUST PLAINS EML. THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO MAY RESULT IN LEAD CONVECTION OUTPACING THE MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY LARGE BUOYANCY. AT LEAST SCATTERED UPSTREAM TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN WI SW TO THE IA/IL BORDER AREA AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DIABATIC HEATING OVERCOME INHIBITION DUE TO THE INITIALLY STOUT EML. SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED IN INITIAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT...WITH SOME OF THIS CONVECTION GROWING UPSCALE DURING THE EVENING. WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY VEERED IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...MAIN HAZARDS WITH SW EXTENT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL TRANSITIONING TO PREDOMINATELY SEVERE WIND. WHERE 850 MB WINDS CAN REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS /MOST LIKELY IN ERN WI TO LOWER MI/...A RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP. ..GRAMS.. 06/21/2015 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2015 Newest SPC severe weather risk map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 MCS charging its way eastward from MN and IA. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/uppermissvly.php Cold pool forming in back of it will probably cause it to turn more SE later this morning. 71/68 currently. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted June 22, 2015 Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 keep an eye on this for WI and Northern IL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 It's going to follow the warm front right in. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 22, 2015 Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 80-94mph winds have been reported with the bow echo...should be an interesting morning around here if the line of storms holds...looks like it may be weakening some as it heads east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 22, 2015 Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 There looks to be some rotation on radar near Madison, WI...check out this radar imagery.... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LOT-N0Q-1-12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted June 22, 2015 Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 Interested to see if there's any redevelopment this aft Already starting to clear out in la crosse area and HRRR shows redevelopment around 20-21z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 22, 2015 Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 Lots of damage all over the place. High wind and large hail. My place is fine. Just some limbs came down. Picked up 1.28" with this morning's storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 22, 2015 Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 Looks like the 2nd line of storms starting to blossom over N IA/W WI out ahead of the approaching cold front. Nothing big now, but should become explosive over the next 1-2 hours as day time heating does its job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 Earlier the show wasn't very impressive. Winds in the 30mph range, some lightning and heavy rain. It dark enough though to turn the street lamps on. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted June 22, 2015 Report Share Posted June 22, 2015 Storms starting to fire up over south central Iowa now. Interesting lat afternoon & evening looking promising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 Tornado warning west of Sterling, IL. Big supercell.SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL702 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015ILC195-230030-/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150623T0030Z/WHITESIDE IL-702 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FORWHITESIDE COUNTY...AT 701 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOWAS LOCATED OVER EMERSON...OR NEAR STERLING...MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... EMERSON AROUND 705 PM CDT. ROCK FALLS AROUND 710 PM CDT. STERLING AROUND 715 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEAGNEW...UNIONVILLE...DOUGLAS PARK...WHITE PIGEON...GALT...ROUNDGROVE...GRIMES ADDITION...MALVERN...COMO AND MORRISON/ROCKWOOD PARK.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 40. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 23, 2015 Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 The morning MCS passed just north of me. As was the case Saturday, however, the tail end kept bubbling up. One cell dropped large hail a few miles north of me. Another cell dropped pea size hail at my house. I finished with 1.02" of rain. My June total is up to 8.07". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 23, 2015 Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 Tornado warning west of Sterling, IL. Big supercell.SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL702 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015ILC195-230030-/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-150623T0030Z/WHITESIDE IL-702 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FORWHITESIDE COUNTY...AT 701 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOWAS LOCATED OVER EMERSON...OR NEAR STERLING...MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... EMERSON AROUND 705 PM CDT. ROCK FALLS AROUND 710 PM CDT. STERLING AROUND 715 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEAGNEW...UNIONVILLE...DOUGLAS PARK...WHITE PIGEON...GALT...ROUNDGROVE...GRIMES ADDITION...MALVERN...COMO AND MORRISON/ROCKWOOD PARK.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 40.I've been watching WGN live tracking this storm...this is one massive super cell storm. Night time storms are so much more dangerous. Feel bad for those ppl that have received damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 I've been watching WGN live tracking this storm...this is one massive super cell storm. Night time storms are so much more dangerous. Feel bad for those ppl that have received damage. I've been trying to watch all the cells from central IL to NE MI. As I've been reading the damage reports, it seems a little town of Deckerville, MI; near Lake Huron, was heavily hit. Overall had 0.27" of rain today. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 23, 2015 Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 I've been trying to watch all the cells from central IL to NE MI. As I've been reading the damage reports, it seems a little town of Deckerville, MI; near Lake Huron, was heavily hit. Overall had 0.27" of rain today.I think this storm is producing multiple tornado's within the same super cell! I don't see this storm weakening as it heads SE into IN. Dewpoints are in the upper 70's in IN.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 23, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 I think this storm is producing multiple tornado's within the same super cell! I don't see this storm weakening as it heads SE into IN. Dewpoints are in the upper 70's in IN.. Tornado warning was dropped now, but damage reports coming in. Houses damaged in Coal City for sure. I-55 shut down south of Joliet also. < This is due to high tension power lines across all lanes and tree debris.Tornado came within 1/2 mile of the nuclear power plant in Braidwood. Talk about just adverting a disaster. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 23, 2015 Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 Coal City was one of the towns that sustained severe damage and thankfully NO deaths. They also were hit on Nov 17th 2013 when we had a huge severe weather outbreak in Illinois a couple years back. I remember that storm system was an important part of the LRC pattern that year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted June 23, 2015 Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 Crazy intense storms last night. First time since i moved here to iowa that i"ve seen so many tornado warned thunderstorms all at the same time. Lucky us we were just missed by the one in s.e iowa. Storm chaser posted a video on youtube looked like a hurricane inside that storm. awesome video. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 23, 2015 Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 Another round of Severe weather Wednesday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 23, 2015 Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 Just a thought, but I'm hoping this mature El Nino can continue it's wet weather pattern into the Fall/Winter months. One could only imagine the kind of snow fall totals we would see if all plays out just right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 23, 2015 Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 The morning MCS activity in sw/s Iowa will play a role in how far north Wednesday night's severe/flooding develops. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 23, 2015 Report Share Posted June 23, 2015 Just a thought, but I'm hoping this mature El Nino can continue it's wet weather pattern into the Fall/Winter months. One could only imagine the kind of snow fall totals we would see if all plays out just right. I was just telling a friend of mine this same thing today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 24, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2015 18Z GFS shows this area for heavy rainfall...The exact locations that don't need it! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 24, 2015 Report Share Posted June 24, 2015 I think the Enhanced Risk will eventually jog a bit north and cover N IL and even parts of S WI. WRF/RPM/GFS taking the MCS a bit farther north now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 24, 2015 Report Share Posted June 24, 2015 Significant convection is backbuilding across southern Iowa this morning. This has certainly been the trend this week with late night MCSs. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 24, 2015 Report Share Posted June 24, 2015 After today/tonight's storms, I'm really looking forward to enjoy some dry weather and sunshine Fri-Sun. We certainly need a good period of dry weather around here. We may finally have a delightful weekend of weather...albeit a bit cool for late June standards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 24, 2015 Report Share Posted June 24, 2015 Local met says the next 2 weeks are expected to be below normal temps. Must be the cold phase of the LRC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted June 24, 2015 Report Share Posted June 24, 2015 July-Sept is expected to be cooler around here.http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/late-summer-temperature-forecast-july-august-september Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 24, 2015 Report Share Posted June 24, 2015 I think the warm front has pushed a little farther north than expected...meantime, storms really starting to fire in IA and heading due east... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted June 25, 2015 Heavy rain threat seems to have sunk a bit south tonight. Flash Flood Watch no longer in effect for Lake or McHenry Counties. Made it to 78° today with a onshore breeze all afternoon. Pretty comfortable out tonight. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 924 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015 UPDATE 924 PM CDT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TRENDS SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER STORMS AND MOST PROBABLE TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING TO BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR SOUTHWEST OF A ROCHELLE IL TO FAR SOUTH METRO TO RENSSELAER IN LINE. MULTIPLE MCSS/MCVS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP THE PRIMARILY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE 850-925MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MUCAPE ABOVE THAT BOUNDARY LINED UP FROM CENTRAL IA THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS AXIS IS FAVORED FOR THE HEAVIEST STORM ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY TRY TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER THE ORGANIZED ROBUST STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IA WILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW IT TO WITH ANY HASTE. THE SPC HAS COLLABORATED A FEW OF OUR NORTH CENTRAL IL COUNTIES INTO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE EXISTING CONVECTION. SUCH GROWTH IS LIKELY WITH THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL AND IMPROVING UPPER SUPPORT FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER SPEED MAX AND POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT WOULD SEEM THAT STORMS WOULD LIKELY NOT ARRIVE IN THAT AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THAT. WIDESPREAD STORM ACTIVITY...SUPPORTED BY CORFIDI STORM MOTIONS FROM THE DEVELOPING AREA OF IA...IS EXPECTED NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS LESS LIKELY TO REACH ROCKFORD TO CHICAGO TO FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A FEW COUNTIES IN THE NORTH AS A RESULT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT REMAIN LIKELY TO TRAIN WITH A VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET AND BACKBUILDING VECTORS FROM THE RAP AND NAM SUPPORTING WESTWARD RE-DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS MOST FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. MTF Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 25, 2015 Report Share Posted June 25, 2015 Was woken up around 3:30 this morning to a really intense rainfall from some active storms. Everything is so damp and wet this morning and I'm really looking forward to some dry weather today thru Sunday. The grass is growing so fast I need to cut it 2x per week now with all this rain! I'm sure all the gardens around our region and certainly loving all this rain. Meantime, an unusual high latitude blocking pattern is setting up over the Northern Hemisphere for the opening days of July which is directly related to the "cold phase" of the LRC pattern. GFS showing some real chilly high temps near the Great Lakes during the 4th of July weekend. Might need to pack some light sweaters if your traveling for the holiday. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted June 25, 2015 Report Share Posted June 25, 2015 A lone storm that held together long enough on the northeast flank of last night's MCS gave me some good lightning and 0.72" of rain. My daily total was 1.15". Areas south and west really got nailed. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted June 25, 2015 Report Share Posted June 25, 2015 It's rather peculiar to see the GFS runs come in and all are showing "Clipper" type systems rounding the base of the trough as we approach the month of July. CFSv2 is looking really cool for next month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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