IbrChris Posted June 25, 2015 Report Share Posted June 25, 2015 The setup on the weekend of the 4th is a classic offshore flow/westside thermal trough configuration with a surface high moving southward out of central Canada into MT/Dakotas. This is coming into better focus on the models and as a result the ensemble mean 850 temps have really risen last 24 hours of runs...6z GFS ensembles already showing a mean H8 temp of +23 to +24c (latter bias corrected GEFS) on July 4th. GFS Op more aggressive with +25c. Looking at the 00z ECMWF the Op reaches +22c on days 9 and 10 while the EPS mean peaks at +22c on the 4th. Canadian ensembles reach a peak of +21c on the 4th as well. Overall good agreement on the ensembles in the 6-10 and early 11-15 time frame which lends higher confidence to another round of heat end of next week.Judging by the trends in models, the good agreement in ensemble suites and the overall progression of the longwave pattern I believe we will be talking about 100 degrees for PDX as we head into the holiday weekend, with July 3-5 being the most likely timeframe for us to achieve the century mark.Throw out some guesses for July 2-6...highs/lows at PDX. And if you prefer SEA that's fine too. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted June 25, 2015 Report Share Posted June 25, 2015 I think I'll wait til the first heatwave is over to focus on this one... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 5, 2015 Report Share Posted July 5, 2015 How did we do on this one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 5, 2015 Report Share Posted July 5, 2015 Chris stopped needing to find ways to kill time while working nights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted July 5, 2015 Report Share Posted July 5, 2015 Not a bad call. Just hit 36C (96.8F) here. But I bet no one expected it to be hotter up here than at PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted July 26, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 26, 2015 Congratulations you all are winners. It was a toasty 4th holiday. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 26, 2015 Report Share Posted July 26, 2015 PDX didn't hit 100. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted July 28, 2015 Author Report Share Posted July 28, 2015 PDX didn't hit 100. True, Portland topped out at 97 while McMinnville and Salem both hit 100 on the 2nd. I'm surprised you don't post more in the Mountain West forum. They could use your daily Westminster, CO weather data. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abbotsford_wx Posted July 28, 2015 Report Share Posted July 28, 2015 It was a good forecast. I don't know many forecasts that are only 3F off at 10 days out. I wish our local forecasts were that good (but they only go out 7 days, anyway). I wonder if people would still be critical if it had reached 103 instead of 97 -- same difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 28, 2015 Report Share Posted July 28, 2015 It was a good forecast. I don't know many forecasts that are only 3F off at 10 days out. I wish our local forecasts were that good (but they only go out 7 days, anyway). I wonder if people would still be critical if it had reached 103 instead of 97 -- same difference. It was an overhyped forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 28, 2015 Report Share Posted July 28, 2015 True, Portland topped out at 97 while McMinnville and Salem both hit 100 on the 2nd. I'm surprised you don't post more in the Mountain West forum. They could use your daily Westminster, CO weather data. I'm originally from the PNW, so I have a lot of interest in the weather there. Also, I don't like talking to myself most of the time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 31, 2015 Report Share Posted July 31, 2015 There are a few people from the Denver area that lurk. I am sure that people posting over there will encourage more posting. Maybe. I've posted there more than anyone. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 1, 2015 It was an overhyped forecast.It's been an overhyped summer that has delivered. I see NWS has 99 for today...another surprise 100? Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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