Tom Posted August 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2015 Both GFS/EURO showing a series of strong cold fronts this week. Some chilly night time lows this Wed/Thu over the Midwest. Then another strong cold front swings through late this weekend into early next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2015 CPC seeing the cool shot in the medium range.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2015 12z Euro showing the 2nd cool shot centered near the Lakes next Monday...another large Summer storm traverses the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 17, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2015 And here comes the Farmer's Almanac with their Winter Predictions...I think the full outlook comes out in a few days.... http://www.fox32chicago.com/news/8178172-story Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 17, 2015 Report Share Posted August 17, 2015 Probably see some lows in the 40s before the month is out. About right on time. Storms today contain monsoon type rain rates and hail. Drove through dime sized hail in Kenosha County around 5:30. Had to pull over at one point - the visibility got so bad. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2015 We finally received some appreciable rains last night IMBY. Surrounding suburbs and parts of the city were drenched: Location rainfall(inches)Lake-of-4-Seasons (IN) 6.18Lake-of-4-Seasons (IN) 5.05Portage (IN) 4.54Valparaiso 4.48Valparaiso 4.23Gale Academy-Chicago 4.97Altus Academy-Chicago 3.67Hammond Ele. Chicago 3.46Portage (IN) 3.39Chicago 2.7 WNW 3.39Rensselaer 3.38Valparaiso 3.37Oak Park 3.14Flanagan IL 2.89LaGrange Park IL 2.87Chebanse IL 2.70Elmhurst IL 2.65 00z Euro indicating a stronger and more potent cool shot next Sun-Wed in the region. Defintely going to get a taste of Autumn around here next week. The streak of 80's may end at 33 if we crack 80F today. Can't wait to feel that Canadian Air tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2015 NE PAC waters starting to torch as a ridge of HP developed here and will continue to strengthen over the next 2 weeks. Meanwhile, some cooler eddy's showing up in the ENSO 1.2 Region. The waters off the Baja coast are still very warm which should start spawning Tropical systems over the next couple months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2015 I think the 6-10 Day period will be much cooler than the front 5 days around here. Pop goes the Western Ridge with a tanking EPO... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted August 18, 2015 Report Share Posted August 18, 2015 Pretty crazy rain totals for my county. I received around 3" in two days, to my north there was 8-10" totals and numerous roads washed out or flooded. The platte river jumped back up and is pretty much full from bank to bank. FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...* UNTIL 815 PM CDT TUESDAY* AT 1120 AM CDT...THE POLK COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED MANYGRAVEL ROADS REMAIN CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER. SOME OF THESEGRAVEL ROADS HAVE BEEN WASHED OUT IN SPOTS. RAINFALL OVER THE PASTTWO DAYS HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AROUND 9 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN POLKCOUNTY.* FLOODING WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL POLKCOUNTY. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted August 18, 2015 Report Share Posted August 18, 2015 Had 2-5" of rain over most of Omaha and suburbs overnight and this morning. It was a very electric storm last night for a while and there were several structure fires started by lightning too. Also had a school closed due to flooding issues with roof and ceiling damage as well.Now comes the cool weather for a day or so before the next strong system moves through on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2015 Action packed system now to deliver the Severe Threat... http://www.weather.gov/images/lot/GraphiCast/FileL.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2015 That would be impressive if the actual high temps hit the low 60's tomorrow in N IA/MN. That is close to 15-20F below normal... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2015 What a Classic looking neg tilt storm system on Radar with a defo band and a plume of moisture heading up from the deep south...hope to see many of these type of systems in the Fall/Winter/Spring. http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/mw3compflash.html 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 19, 2015 Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 Didn't get too much rain here last night, but we did back on the 10th. Looks like typical storms here tonight. Severe is south where the more unstable air is. ... away from the lake. 77° for a high today Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 19, 2015 Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 New Tornado Warning for a cell over the west suburbs TORNADO WARNINGILC043-190130-/O.NEW.KLOT.TO.W.0036.150819T0105Z-150819T0130Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL805 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...SOUTHEASTERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 830 PM CDT* AT 805 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER DOWNERS GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUTSHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREEDAMAGE IS LIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...LOMBARD...WESTMONT AND CLARENDON HILLS AROUND 810 PM CDT.HINSDALE...OAK BROOK AND YORK CENTER AROUND 815 PM CDT.ELMHURST...VILLA PARK...BENSENVILLE AND NORTHLAKE AROUND 820 PMCDT.FRANKLIN PARK AROUND 825 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDEGLENBARD SOUTH...OAKBROOK TERRACE...BERKELEY AND WILLOWBROOK. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 19, 2015 Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 Low to mid 50s in SD under the defo band. Impressive for mid to late August! 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 19, 2015 Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 Yup, classic winter looking system. This would be a major winter storm during the right time of year.Today I received 3.20" of rain. Barely made it to 70. Low 60s forecasted for tomorrow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 19, 2015 Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 Low to mid 50s in SD under the defo band. Impressive for mid to late August! http://i.imgur.com/T2BCZkC.pngLook at that thing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 19, 2015 Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 This is cool looking. Looks like a tropical storm on a miniature scale. 0.75" of rain so far. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 This is cool looking. http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/MKX/N0Q/MKX.N0Q.20150819.0319.gif Looks like a tropical storm on a miniature scale. 0.75" of rain so far.I believe that storm had a Tornado Warning earlier on. Pretty cool how that storm fell apart and then it took on a cyclonic shape on radar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted August 19, 2015 Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 officially ended up with 4.07" of rain since Sunday night here. There were some reports of nearly 8" of rain in southwest Omaha. Didn't think I would be able to get an official measurement at my house as I have recently moved and haven't had time to set up my rain gauge yet, but I accidentally left a bowl outside that caught all of the rain over the last couple of days Very chilly this morning with low 50s and a strong wind gusting up to 30 mph. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 Wow, 12z GFS Monday night lows...http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015081912/gfs_T2m_ncus_25.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 19, 2015 Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 Signs of Autumn! I had 54 this morning. Might be even be lower tomorrow morning. Nice cool shot coming early next week as well.Today is windy and cloudy and chilly. Finally hit 60. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 19, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 Absolutely pleasant out there today with the dropping humidity levels, albeit a bit windy, it's not that bad with the sunshine out. Enjoying the mid 70's IMBY. James, I bet the low 60's and cloudiness is a shock to your system! Get out there and make a bonfire tonight! 2 powerful Typhoon's are poised to hit near Japan over the next 5-7 days. Not sure how this will effect our weather downstream as it is a bit more complicated. The strongest Typhoon, Atsani, re-curves east of Japan and then heads towards the Aleutian Islands. Typhoon Rule would suggest a trough in our region right around Labor Day weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 19, 2015 Report Share Posted August 19, 2015 https://www.insuramatch.com/news/farmers-almanac-predictions-northeast-2015-2016 I like where it saids "The midwest can expect frigid weather" I just hope that does not come with dry weather. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2015 Dang, its pretty nippy out there with the wind! Sitting at 68F with overcast skies and a gusty wind out of the West. If the leaves weren't green, I would say it certainly feels and looks like Autumn out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2015 The strong westerly winds have upwelled some real chilly waters on the western shores of Lake Michigan. http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/ncast/mswt-00.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 20, 2015 Report Share Posted August 20, 2015 Windows are open and some fall scented candles are lit here! Made it to 74° here today. Variably to mostly cloudy all day, breezy as well. Definitely feels like early autumn tonight. Looks like another trough moves in for the weekend. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2015 Brrr, a bit nippy out there this morning and brisk! Low stratus deck ain't warming temps up that much and sitting in the low 60's currently. I think everyone has gotten their first taste of Autumn this month. Saw this article regarding Corn and Soybean conditions in Illinois and surprisingly, the last 2 years beat out this year...https://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2015/08/19/corn-and-soybean-conditions-in-illinois-are-not-as-good-as-last-two-years/ The latest NMME Oct-Dec outlook has tons of precip for the lower 48...a pocket of cooler weather in the central/southern part of the nation... Here's another interesting article I read that gives one opinion regarding the upcoming Winter. It highlights some important factors which I've commented on before and that includes what should be an epic battle between the warm waters in the NE PAC and the Strong El NINO. http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/08/18/winter_weather_preview_thanks_to_el_nino_we_know_what_s_coming.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_tw_bot I like the look of the NMME for Jan-Mar...with that type of warming in the Arcitc, you can imagine the type of battle there will be in the lower 48... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 20, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 20, 2015 The JMA Monthlies just came in on the 16th and I like what I'm seeing over the next 3 months. First, lets start off by looking at the Sept outlook below. Notice the deepening trough south of the Aleutians as the jet stream begins to strengthen in the northern latitudes. I believe this will be a common feature going forward as we head deeper into Fall/Winter and we'll see the ridge strengthen in NW NAMER (which many of the global models have locked into already). The desert SW turns wet, probably due to tropical moisture, which will eventually turn into an active STJ down the road. The JMA does, however, see a cooler central U.S. and Great Lakes next month. Moving ahead into October, the signal for a trough south of the Aleutians is still present. More importantly, this is when we see the new LRC develop. The model is seeing a general warmer look for the lower 48 with a wetter look. As we look out farther towards November, we still have the trough present south of the Aleutians. Now, what is interesting to see is a tongue of cooler temps extending all the way across the Pacific from East Asia. This may be a signal of a very active Pacific that may begin to ignite the STJ and start pounding away at Cali. I do like the "cold" signal for a large part of the central/southern/eastern CONUS in November. This map is 3 months out, so don't expect it to be showing a strong signal. What I would take in from this is that another cold/fast start to winter is on the table. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 20, 2015 Report Share Posted August 20, 2015 Thanks for all the maps Tom. Interesting stuff.Way nice today. Breezy and sunny and low 70s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted August 21, 2015 Report Share Posted August 21, 2015 Hi, I'm ingyball. I have come from the storm2k forums, where I use the name theprofessor, because I didn't see many discussions for the great lakes area. I have lived in North Texas for all 18 years of my life, but I'm moving to Columbus, Ohio where I will be starting college at The Ohio State and I will be majoring in Atmospheric Science. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 21, 2015 Report Share Posted August 21, 2015 Hi, I'm ingyball. I have come from the storm2k forums, where I use the name theprofessor, because I didn't see many discussions for the great lakes area. I have lived in North Texas for all 18 years of my life, but I'm moving to Columbus, Ohio where I will be starting college at The Ohio State and I will be majoring in Atmospheric Science.Welcome aboard! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2015 Hi, I'm ingyball. I have come from the storm2k forums, where I use the name theprofessor, because I didn't see many discussions for the great lakes area. I have lived in North Texas for all 18 years of my life, but I'm moving to Columbus, Ohio where I will be starting college at The Ohio State and I will be majoring in Atmospheric Science.Welcome! This board has seen its fair share of action over the summer months. I do expect it to begin to be light up soon as we head closer towards October. Glad your aboard! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 21, 2015 Report Share Posted August 21, 2015 That's a very wet signal for September! Never seen anything like that. It covers such a large area. Nice to see the dry signal disappear in the West for the most part. Looking at the temperature and precipitation maps combined, it seems a Bermuda high will set up. Its circulation might steer tropical moisture at us from the Gulf, while all along the center of the high nearest to the Southeast will keep it drier than normal there. Welcome Ingyball! I hope you enjoy your stay here.Yes, Tom is right. Our board should really start lighting up in about 5-6 weeks. --- Already 54° here. Guidance was for 55° tonight. Upper 40s possible in low lying areas tonight? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2015 Next week looks superb around here. Temps in the 70's, sunshine and no precip. I mowed the lawn yesterday and the ground is getting rather hard from the lack of deep moisture. Dry pattern continues. We broke the streak of 80's this week at ORD to 34 days I believe. It was quite the run I'd say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 21, 2015 Author Report Share Posted August 21, 2015 12z Euro keeps it cool and dry over the following week into next weekend in the Midwest and Lakes region. High Pressure looks to be the dominating feature. Def beats having the humidity around and the AC running. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 21, 2015 Report Share Posted August 21, 2015 Ground is pretty soft still up this way. Over 3.5" of rain this month so far. Low of 52° this morning was a bit brisk! 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 21, 2015 Report Share Posted August 21, 2015 12z Euro keeps it cool and dry over the following week into next weekend in the Midwest and Lakes region. High Pressure looks to be the dominating feature. Def beats having the humidity around and the AC running.Nice to hear that. DMX morning disco was saying that they didnt know if the ridge would make it into Iowa and give us one last summer blast or if it would get squashed and stay to the south and west. Sounds like Euro is keeping it south and west so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 22, 2015 Report Share Posted August 22, 2015 Frost Advisories in Montana!I'm in a slight to advanced risk of severe weather later today. Could get exciting around here. And then we get blasted with cool air. Local mets calling for upper 40s for lows next week! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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