August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Night, folks. I think we can all agree that tomorrow, 8/14/15, it will rain somewhere in the PNW.

[BLI snowman]

0z seems to have got a little pee-shy.

 

WRF still shows pockets of pretty heavy rain, someone will probably get a lot but a lot will get a little. 

 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2015081400/images_d2/pcp24.24.0000.gif

[Deweydog]

The only difference in our thinking was I was thinking about 6 hours earlier than you. Late afternoon/evening. 3-10 pmish. You were thinking tonight. Neither one of us was particularly bullish, we just threw out the possibility. Apparently some people really care.

 

Like I said, you were giving this way too much thought.

I was just making a smart a** comment based on your recent ascension to forum severe weather expert status. Not like I was splitting hairs over someone's timing of mentioning model scenarios and whatnot...

[Deweydog]

Taste of fall alert on the Canadian!  You don't even have to extrapolate the run to see it!  

[luminen]

I can't wait for some decent rain...and snow. 

[Phil]

Marine pushes don't act as a surface based trigger. It's mid level interaction in an elevated situation where they typically serve to enhance lift.

Are you sure about that one? Physically speaking they should be coupled with the surface boundary layer considering the marine air is often colder/heavier than the preceding surface air.

 

Whether it's enough to trigger convection depends more on the magnitude of CAPE (surface based or elevated) & heights aloft. Even a scrawny mid-level dry layer could be enough to prevent convective initiation.

[Deweydog]

Are you sure about that one? Physically speaking they should be coupled with the surface boundary layer considering the marine air is colder/heavier than the preceding surface air.

 

Whether it's enough to trigger convection depends more on the magnitude of CAPE/heights aloft. Even a scrawny mid-level dry layer could be enough to prevent convective initiation.

The way I understand it is the marine air in a shallow marine push will simply stabilize the surface although I suppose there may be situations where it may enhance things if certain conditions are present. Something above my paygrade. In an elevated setup the deeper marine air serves as more of a trigger, or at least a point of focus in a supportive atmosphere, creating a mechanism for lift.

[Jesse]

Starting to look like another decent shot at 90 the middle of next week.

[TT-SEA]

Looks really nice next week... NW flow and mild 850mb temps.   The air should be much cleaner.     

 

Should be mostly sunny with cool mornings and pleasant afternoons.    Hopefully we get some meaningful rain tomorrow.  

 

Saturday has become quite troughy as well but it looks basically dry.  

[Phil]

The way I understand it is the marine air in a shallow marine push will simply stabilize the surface although I suppose there may be situations where it may enhance things if certain conditions are present. Something above my paygrade. In an elevated setup the deeper marine air serves as more of a trigger, or at least a point of focus in a supportive atmosphere, creating a mechanism for lift.

Maybe the lack of a convective response can be attributed to an antecedent capping inversion or meager instability in general? I'm not familiar with marine fronts in the PNW, so I'll take your word for it. Out this way, the afternoon bay breeze boundary is usually a focus for convection.

[Front Ranger]

Left for the office and was surprising greeted by low rumbles of thunder and cloud-to-cloud lightning. Muggy but breezy morning, 66F.

 

Looks like there's been convection ongoing from Seattle into the North Sound for the past couple hours. 

 

The Willamette Valley is still dry, though it looks like some light showers are finally approaching EUG.

[Abbotsford_wx]

The Canada-US border thunderstorm force-field is in full effect once again I see... second time this week.

[MossMan]

Had frequent cloud to cloud lightning starting at around 4am this morning up here. Been the occasional rumble all morning after the main show passed. Few drops of rain as well.

[Guest Winterdog]

Had frequent cloud to cloud lightning starting at around 4am this morning up here. Been the occasional rumble all morning after the main show passed. Few drops of rain as well.

Not quite the show I had a couple weeks ago but still a nice treat.  The skies opened up and dumped three hundredths on my parched acres. 

[Jesse]

Absolutely delightful out there this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Taste of fall alert on the Canadian!  You don't even have to extrapolate the run to see it!  

 

 

12Z Canadian shoves everything much farther east and is much warmer for next week and the following weekend.   Fall cancel.

[Deweydog]

12Z Canadian shoves everything much farther east and is much warmer for next week and the following weekend. Fall cancel.

Well ... I guess I'll cancel next weekend's trip to the pumpkin patch.

[TT-SEA]

Well s**t... I guess I'll cancel next weekend's trip to the pumpkin patch.

 

 

Yes... save that for one of our glorious 80-degree weekends in October!   

[Deweydog]

Yes... save that for one of our glorious 80-degree weekends in October!

We plan to cut down our xmas tree on one of those weekends.

[TT-SEA]

We plan to cut down our xmas tree on one of those weekends.

 

 

Save that for one of our glorious 65-degree weekends in November.

[Deweydog]

Stormy day in western Lewis County.

[TT-SEA]

Stormy day in western Lewis County.

 

 

Hope it keeps morphing northward.

[Front Ranger]

Stormy day in western Lewis County.

 

As expected, the main action is well north of Portland and slowly spreading NE.

 

Bummer that the Willamette Valley has scored virtually no precip from this pattern. Hopefully a few of those weaker showers down by EUG will make it into the rest of the valley this afternoon. My parents and brothers all are reporting dead-looking and brown neighborhoods, worse than they've ever seen.

[Front Ranger]

Hope it keeps morphing northward.

 

Everything points to your area doing well later today.

[Deweydog]

As expected, the main action is well north of Portland and slowly spreading NE.

 

Bummer that the Willamette Valley has scored virtually no precip from this pattern. Hopefully a few of those weaker showers down by EUG will make it into the rest of the valley this afternoon. My parents and brothers all are reporting dead-looking and brown neighborhoods, worse than they've ever seen.

Everything here is lush and green.

[TT-SEA]

Everything points to your area doing well later today.

 

 

I think easterly flow aloft is going to reduce rainfall totals here.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Might be lucky to pick up a tenth of an inch up here. The south sound has really been the sweet spot in this pattern.

[Jesse]

12z Euro looks perfect for next week. Keep that offshore ridging around the next few months!

[BLI snowman]

Quite the crapload of lightning between Olympia and Chehalis.

[MossMan]

Just had instantaneous lightning and house shaking thunder, that was close!! My dogs are not happy at the moment.

[bainbridgekid]

Pretty impressive to see this much activity simultaneously along the entire I-5 corridor from Everett all the way South to Chehalis.

 

Getting quite a few rumbles of thunder here on Bainbridge.

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty impressive to see this much activity simultaneously along the entire I-5 corridor from Everett all the way South to Chehalis.

 

Deformation zone mania as advertised well by the models all week.

[bainbridgekid]

Deformation zone mania as advertised well by the models all week.

Yeah they handled it well. We were camping in the San Juans all week and decided to leave a day early to avoid today's rain. Looks like that was definitely the right call.

 

Hopefully we can score a similar situation in January when it's about 30 degrees. 

 

59 degrees here in the middle of the afternoon which feels awfully strange.

[Jesse]

**Showers heading toward the PDX metro**

 

Hopefully the unprepared masses are prepared.

[TT-SEA]

Rain filling in out here now.   Raining moderately now.

[Deweydog]

Light rain here and a jet flew over a few minutes ago that sounded kind of like distant thunder.

[bainbridgekid]

Apparently Centurylink Field was just struck by lightning. 

 

http://www.kirotv.com/news/news/stormy-weather-rolls-seattle-tacoma-everett-corrid/nnKZD/

[TT-SEA]

Absolutely dumping rain here now.

[MossMan]

Most rain I have seen falling since early spring. The rumbles have slowed down at the moment however.

[bainbridgekid]

Temperature just fell from 50 to 33 in 4 hours at Camp Muir.

 

http://www.nwac.us/weatherdata/campmuir/now/

 

EDIT: Down to 31 at 3 PM so they must be picking up quite a bit of snow this afternoon.