OKwx2k4 Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 Great post Tom. I've been wondering why I haven't heard or read anyone talking about sea ice lately. Now I know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 Great post Tom. I've been wondering why I haven't heard or read anyone talking about sea ice lately. Now I know. Here you go.. Hot (pun intended) off the press! Interesting tid-bit: http://realclimatesc...s-for-ice-gain/ 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 Here you go.. Hot (pun intended) off the press! Interesting tid-bit: http://realclimatesc...s-for-ice-gain/Wow! Had no idea. Very impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 30, 2015 Report Share Posted October 30, 2015 Didn't know Arctic sea ice was that high - that's awesome!Interestingly it's happening during at strong El Niño. Today there was drizzle and some graupel in this area with a temp of 37°. Graupel isn't a true snowflake, but it is a mixture of snow and supercooled water droplets stuck together. High of only 47° today. Seeing quite a few bare to mostly bare trees now. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 30, 2015 Report Share Posted October 30, 2015 Another nice looking system heading into the plains and midwest right now. How do you guys feel about the evolving LRC? First couple weeks were dry but lately its been getting more active. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2015 Another nice looking system heading into the plains and midwest right now. How do you guys feel about the evolving LRC? First couple weeks were dry but lately its been getting more active.El NINO and the transitioning of seasons, along with the strengthening jet are all beginning to contribute into the overall pattern. The LRC is going to be very exciting this year. Even though it started off slow (I believe it was somewhat due to the "boring" wx pattern from last year), the atmosphere had a "lag" and now we are seeing it respond. Most models caught this active pattern and we are seeing it come into fruition. I like the overall SW Flow/Split Flow pattern that is setting up. Should be interesting as we roll on into November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 30, 2015 Report Share Posted October 30, 2015 El NINO and the transitioning of seasons, along with the strengthening jet are all beginning to contribute into the overall pattern. The LRC is going to be very exciting this year. Even though it started off slow (I believe it was somewhat due to the "boring" wx pattern from last year), the atmosphere had a "lag" and now we are seeing it respond. Most models caught this active pattern and we are seeing it come into fruition. I like the overall SW Flow/Split Flow pattern that is setting up. Should be interesting as we roll on into November.Yes, Im liking how systems are coming from the SW. Could be some big winter storms when they come back around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2015 Another nice looking system heading into the plains and midwest right now. How do you guys feel about the evolving LRC? First couple weeks were dry but lately its been getting more active.Not a bad looking system hitting the Plains/Midwest right now. Nice slug of GOM moisture with an ULL digging south into S NM. Water Vapor imagery looks nice...fast forward towards December and this would be another great storm system to track. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Got a feeling that the GOM is going to pay huge dividends this winter season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 30, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2015 Gotta say, it's nice to see the GFS/CFSv2/Euro Weeklies/Ensembles continue to pound away at storms hitting the central CONUS instead of the East Coast. How often has it been in recent years that they were hit storm after storm. So far this October, the storm track has targeted the most significant storms to hit from the southern Plains to the Lakes. Looks to continue into November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2015 Report Share Posted October 31, 2015 Unfortunately the forecast for Trick o'treating looks wet tomorrow here and pretty cool as well. 56/32 for today. Looks like this month will end up about one degree above normal. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2015 Saw this article NASA posted regarding Antarctic Sea Ice growth outweighing melting glaciers. http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/nasa-study-mass-gains-of-antarctic-ice-sheet-greater-than-losses 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2015 I know the SST's in the Pacific have been talked about a lot on here, but has anyone noticed how warm the GOM has been trending??? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png If the Gulf continues to boil, this can contribute to fueling systems down the road. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2015 A-typical Halloween weather out there today. Damp/wet/cool conditions for the Trick O' Treaters. I think the stats are roughly 50% of Halloweens are wet around here anyway. Certainly looks and feels like late October. Next week, much different story. There will be some nice weather to do some raking. More and more bare tree's are showing up now. I wonder how soon we'll see all the leaves gone this year. Last year, I remember them totally gone a little before Thanksgiving week. With the expected active storminess next week and windier conditions, I think this will ramp up the leaves falling off. In Day 5-15, some real frigid air begins to build NW of Japan in eastern Siberia that eventually makes it's way through East Asia/Japan in the extended. Interestingly enough, if you would use the East Asian Theory, that would place this mass of arctic air Day 11-21 into NW NAMER, which would be roughly mid November to right before Thanksgiving week. Now, look at what is happening over NW NAMER... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif The SSW Theory suggests cooling to follow in the 2-4 week period thereafter which would place that cold pool in the same time frame as the East Asian Theory. If you have been watching the CFSv2, where is it placing this arctic air??? You guessed it, right into NW NAMER during this aforementioned period in November. Here is the models recent Week 3 & 4 run...that is some real frigid air to build in later on in November. The question is, will the Alaskan ridge build in later in the month and back load colder air into the lower 48??? http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151030.NAsfcT.gif The last October run is seeing a much colder Western Canada and west coast. I could see the cold "pushing" far enough south to create a very active central CONUS storm track next month. There is still a very strong -PNA signal through next month. Interesting times to say the least. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201511.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2015 Report Share Posted October 31, 2015 These maps don't say a whole lot ^ about departures if you think about it. They are just probability maps. It doesn't tell the reader what degree above normal or below normal it will be.They're are good for seeing signals - I will give them that. A soaking rain today. Too bad it didn't rain during the week, so I could rake up leaves today!Trick o'treating is supposed to be starting, but I don't see any sign of them yet. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 31, 2015 Report Share Posted October 31, 2015 These maps don't say a whole lot ^ about departures if you think about it. They are just probability maps. It doesn't tell the reader what degree above normal or below normal it will be.They're are good for seeing signals - I will give them that. A soaking rain today. Too bad it didn't rain during the week, so I could rake up leaves today!Trick o'treating is supposed to be starting, but I don't see any sign of them yet.starting already? its only 2pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted October 31, 2015 Report Share Posted October 31, 2015 The GFS has been showing a pretty consistent signal of very cold weather towards the middle of the month. It's been showing freezing temps all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2015 Report Share Posted October 31, 2015 starting already? its only 2pm Yep, it's always during the day. Too many cars and other dangers to have it at night. Haven't seen anyone linger outside today though.With luck the rain might clear out by 4pm. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 1, 2015 Report Share Posted November 1, 2015 These maps don't say a whole lot ^ about departures if you think about it. They are just probability maps. It doesn't tell the reader what degree above normal or below normal it will be.They're are good for seeing signals - I will give them that. A soaking rain today. Too bad it didn't rain during the week, so I could rake up leaves today!Trick o'treating is supposed to be starting, but I don't see any sign of them yet.I expect to see some pretty healthy positive departures this month though for the Eastern half of the country. Who cares though, it's not like a cold November would benefit us anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted November 1, 2015 Report Share Posted November 1, 2015 These maps don't say a whole lot ^ about departures if you think about it. They are just probability maps. It doesn't tell the reader what degree above normal or below normal it will be.They're are good for seeing signals - I will give them that. A soaking rain today. Too bad it didn't rain during the week, so I could rake up leaves today!Trick o'treating is supposed to be starting, but I don't see any sign of them yet.Oh, and those aren't probability maps. It clearly tells the reader how much it could potentially be above/below normal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2015 The region got a pretty good Halloween soaker. ORD picked up 0.77" of rainfall (4th wettest Halloween). The first half of the month was rather dry, but then the rains came...the Lakes region did quite well and picked up roughly 2-3" or rainfall this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 1, 2015 Report Share Posted November 1, 2015 It was a nice rally the last 7 days of the month. 2.41" of rain total.1.1° above normal, so not a big departure at all. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 2, 2015 Report Share Posted November 2, 2015 Besides nightime lows, your not that far off to having normal temps through the next 10 days. Areas south, including my area, we will prob end up above normal especially if that system in early November pumps up the ridge out ahead.http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/hprcc/mn/7dTDeptHPRCC-MN.png There is the 7 last seven days since we had a slight disagreement. I am already almost plus 4 on those seven days. The next three will only add to it. Very much above average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 6, 2015 Report Share Posted November 6, 2015 Besides nightime lows, your not that far off to having normal temps through the next 10 days. Areas south, including my area, we will prob end up above normal especially if that system in early November pumps up the ridge out ahead.+11 in the timeframe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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