October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

I'd say we still end up with +1.0 to +1.5 departures for the month. Going to take quite the cold shot to completely wipe out those positive anomalies. I'm talking specifically for Chicago though.

I agree, unless the system mid next week really gets wound up and tugs down a very strong cold shot.  Need those night time lows to tank also.

[james1976]

12z Euro back with a colder/stormier solution next week.  It's taking the Gulf energy and phasing it with the northern piece and creating a 994mb SLP in NE MO, then tracking thru N IL as a 990mb SLP. then as a 986mb near GRB, then into southern Ontario.  Hope this trend continues.

 

Edit:  From the Rockies to the Lakes, the Euro is showing widespread 1-2" qpf totals

I love that track!!

[james1976]

12z Euro continues with the Pacific storm train and another system develops in the Plains Day 9-10.  Keep it coming!

GFS is showing a lot of the same. I like how models are coming together. Hope this trend continues.

[james1976]

Is the Euro showing any snowfall for the plains/midwest like other models are?

[Maxim]

Is the Euro showing any snowfall for the plains/midwest like other models are?

not really

[Tom]

Is the Euro showing any snowfall for the plains/midwest like other models are?

Some possible rain/snow mix in the Plains and in the northern Lakes...nothing substantial at the moment.  So basically, over the next 10 days we may have 3 seperate storm systems to track.  First one is going to hit the southern/central Plains, next storm on the agenda would be Tue/Wed and then a possible 3rd later on next week towards Halloween weekend.

[Tom]

Over the last 4 runs on the Euro, only last nights 00z run had the AO/NAO "blip" positive which changed the entire pattern.  Today's run brings back the -AO/NAO, and holds onto the -EPO/WPO look.  Man, Canada fills up with -20C/-30C 850's Day 8-10 on the north side of Hudson Bay.

[OKwx2k4]

Over the last 4 runs on the Euro, only last nights 00z run had the AO/NAO "blip" positive which changed the entire pattern. Today's run brings back the -AO/NAO, and holds onto the -EPO/WPO look. Man, Canada fills up with -20C/-30C 850's Day 8-10 on the north side of Hudson Bay.

I saw that. That's one heck of a rapid reload up there. Should be able to fill in some of the snow holes in western Canada in the coming days. Would be fair to say the models have a lot on their plates over the next 10 days.

[NEJeremy]

We've only had a trace of precip at the airport here in Omaha this month, so we definitely need some moisture. The trees are beautiful though!

[Tom]

Can't beat the kind of weather we are having around here today.  Low 70's, southerly breeze, leaves are really starting to change into some bright colors.  Def need the rain out here as well and I think we will start seeing appreciable precip next week.

 

Looking forward to see some cooler weather and hopefully some windy storms to track!

 

 

I saw that. That's one heck of a rapid reload up there. Should be able to fill in some of the snow holes in western Canada in the coming days. Would be fair to say the models have a lot on their plates over the next 10 days.

Indeed, I don't recall it getting so cold that fast up that way in recent years.  I think a lot has to do with the riding building in near Siberia and pushing the coldest air into North America.

 

Not a bad looking snow cover for October though...

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

British Columbia and points north along the coast are below normal...the warm waters hugging the coast probably are to blame...

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2015293.png

[Maxim]

ORD and surrounding areas could have tagged 80 today if it weren't for the thick cloud cover that developed. Oh well... probably the last time we see temps this warm until next Spring.

[Money]

Great season for the Cubs. Mets are red hot

 

Interesting to see tom call for a cold/snowier pattern setting up while gosaints is all about the warmth. Almost like last year lol

[Tom]

Great season for the Cubs. Mets are red hot

 

Interesting to see tom call for a cold/snowier pattern setting up while gosaints is all about the warmth. Almost like last year lol

How's it going Money???  Been a while.  Yup, Cub's had a great year but choked under pressure.  Met's are no doubt red hot and may in fact win it all.  Anyway, quite possible you may see some flakes of snow in your area before months end.

[james1976]

CPC has really flipped back warm.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

[GDR]

Don't worry it will be as cold as the Cubs tomorrow.

[OKwx2k4]

Guess the Euro went on its cooler solutions again last night. Not as progressive shoving the cold out.

[Maxim]

still looking pretty average to me in the mid/long range, maybe a tad above normal if you average everything out.

[OKwx2k4]

still looking pretty average to me in the mid/long range, maybe a tad above normal if you average everything out.

Averaged out over the duration of the run, pretty close to average for you folks up north. I take it I'm the only one from the south Central US in this group down here but relative to average it would be more below for me. I'll try to be a little more specific in the future.

[Tom]

Radar imagery looks real healthy for the Plains system...nice comma shape to it...should be an interesting system to track this winter season as the LRC cycles through...

 

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

 

Nice to see the GFS showing systems coming out of the SW in the medium/long range.  Euro Ensembles showing the same tune as we roll on into the early part of November.

[Tom]

Nice wator vapor imagery...looks like most of the TX drought will be almost gone by end of the month!

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv/7.jpg

[CentralNebWeather]

Nice rains here in Central Nebraska.  Fairly heavy rain now and 49 degrees.  Trees have really changed and many are past peak.  The rain is also knocking quite a few off into the streets.

[Tom]

Typhoon Rule in play here for a potential gulf system and northern piece to phase into a "cutter" type system for the first part of November.  06z GFS shows the remnants of Typhoon Koppu south of Japan merging with a strong system to the north of Japan.  Strong HP to the east funnels the system in a NE trajectory...following that a deep trough settles in over Japan.  We'll need to watch this system coming out of the Gulf in the longer range.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102206/gfs_z500_mslp_wpac_20.png

[james1976]

Nice wator vapor imagery...looks like most of the TX drought will be almost gone by end of the month!

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv/7.jpg

That is a great looking system.

[Sleather]

Typhoon Rule in play here for a potential gulf system and northern piece to phase into a "cutter" type system for the first part of November.  06z GFS shows the remnants of Typhoon Koppu south of Japan merging with a strong system to the north of Japan.  Strong HP to the east funnels the system in a NE trajectory...following that a deep trough settles in over Japan.  We'll need to watch this system coming out of the Gulf in the longer range.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102206/gfs_z500_mslp_wpac_20.png

Gosh, what a nice website! Love discovering new sites like this one...

[Tom]

First snows in the Rockies....Aspen and Snowmass getting their first taste of Winter...

 

http://aspen.roundshot.com/aspen/?_ga=1.4607091.1762331871.1445535734

 

http://aspen.roundshot.com/snowmass/?_ga=1.43879525.1762331871.1445535734

[OKwx2k4]

First snows in the Rockies....Aspen and Snowmass getting their first taste of Winter...

 

http://aspen.roundshot.com/aspen/?_ga=1.4607091.1762331871.1445535734

 

http://aspen.roundshot.com/snowmass/?_ga=1.43879525.1762331871.1445535734

Pure beauty right there.

[gosaints]

Guess the Euro went on its cooler solutions again last night. Not as progressive shoving the cold out.

It moves out quickly.  2 days max

[james1976]

TWC is saying above normal temps for most of nation first week of November. I wanna see how these typhoons play out.

[Tom]

The 12z Euro has a sweet looking track for next weeks Wed/Thu system.  A rapidly developing storm develops straight out of the Gulf near LA/AR and heads into the Lakes.  If this were Winter...would be a snow lovers dream.  Some of the wildest storms that develop in the deep south slam the southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes in this fashion.

 

East Asia gets slammed with storm after storm Day 5-10 with some real cold air brewing in that part of the world.

[james1976]

The 12z Euro has a sweet looking track for next weeks Wed/Thu system.  A rapidly developing storm develops straight out of the Gulf near LA/AR and heads into the Lakes.  If this were Winter...would be a snow lovers dream.  Some of the wildest storms that develop in the deep south slam the southern Plains/Midwest/Lakes in this fashion.

 

East Asia gets slammed with storm after storm Day 5-10 with some real cold air brewing in that part of the world.

How does the East Asia Theory work again? We get effected in 6-10 days?

[james1976]

Accuweather hyping up a warm November.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/warmer-weather-midwest-northeast-el-nino-into-november/53079240

[Tom]

How does the East Asia Theory work again? We get effected in 6-10 days?

The correlation is 6-10 days...

[Geos]

The correlation is 6-10 days...

 

I think the Great Lakes and Northeast will trend colder with Typhoons recurving. This connect is one that you can count on to deliver below normal temperatures in this region. 

[BrianJK]

Interesting to see tom call for a cold/snowier pattern setting up while gosaints is all about the warmth. Almost like last year lol

 

the subtleness makes me chuckle

[Maxim]

Accuweather hyping up a warm November.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/warmer-weather-midwest-northeast-el-nino-into-november/53079240

what makes you think they're hyping?

[Tom]

GFS/EURO are in the same camp regarding Eurasian Snow Cover by November 1st...expansive and deep early snow pack near Siberia...

[FV-Mike]

what makes you think they're hyping?

Accuweather is the biggest Hype Machine for weather around. Warm or Cold. Remember "Snowmageddon"

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/12/AR2010021204940.html

[Maxim]

Accuweather is the biggest Hype Machine for weather around. Warm or Cold. Remember "Snowmageddon"

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/12/AR2010021204940.html

CFS still showing a pretty warm November. The first week or so also looks to be somewhat mild per 12z GFS, so I'm not sure why anyone would go against at least a slightly above average November other than climo.

[Maxim]

I realize accuweather does tend to hype a lot, but just because they're calling for a mild weather pattern for the first half of November doesn't necessarily mean they're hyping.

[OKwx2k4]

I actually wouldn't be disappointed if the first half of November averaged normal. Just let all heck break loose around Thanksgiving and into December. :-)