October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[gosaints]

Best looking trough in a long time. a week of prime weather before that

[james1976]

What a chilly day! Turned cloudy. Mid-upper 40s this afternoon and windy. Freeze Warning tonight!

[gabel23]

Certainly seems like there will be a "mini Jet" overhead...however, on the other side of the coin...if they play LA it will be sunny and in the 80's, cooler in NY in the 60's Fri, 50's Sat.  Where would they rather play???

It's hard to believe but I will be sitting out in the bleachers for Game 4 of the NLCS!! I was able to purchase tickets as I was an email lottery winner, I thought there was no chance of getting tickets. Tom, I'm going to need a great weather forecast from you so I know what to pack! GO CUBS GO!!

[Tom]

It's hard to believe but I will be sitting out in the bleachers for Game 4 of the NLCS!! I was able to purchase tickets as I was an email lottery winner, I thought there was no chance of getting tickets. Tom, I'm going to need a great weather forecast from you so I know what to pack! GO CUBS GO!!

So far so good bud...winds won't be as strong as earlier forecasts have shown but still out of the SSW on Game 4 @ 10-15 mph around Noon with a front coming through and shifting them out of the WNW around 6pm.  Game 3 still looks great with temps near 70F and sunny with a SSW wind 10-15mph.

[gabel23]

So far so good bud...winds won't be as strong as earlier forecasts have shown but still out of the SSW on Game 4 @ 10-15 mph around Noon with a front coming through and shifting them out of the WNW around 6pm.  Game 3 still looks great with temps near 70F and sunny with a SSW wind 10-15mph.

Thanks tom!! Can't wait.

[Geos]

Low has been taken down more - now 26°. Sitting at 35° at my house right now. 

[Tom]

There are some interesting developments happening over Eurasia at the moment.  Not only has the snow cover expanded in coverage, but the average depth is rather impressive as well.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

With the snow, comes the cold...frigid temps are now starting to show up...Tomorrow's daytime temps are well below zero...Western Russia has been extremely cold for the time of year, but now is beginning to warm up a bit and a ridge is building in from the west and pushing the coldest of air farther east into Eastern Eurasia through Day 10.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015101712/gfs_T2m_asia_4.png

 

 

 

What happens beyond Day 10 into the long range is interesting.  Both the GFS/EURO see a piece of the PV taking up residence in Eastern Eurasia crashing temps.  Current 30mb SSW has blossomed in Western Eurasia indicating the ridge building in and pushing the coldest air East.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

I'm curious to see what happens over the next 2-4 weeks and if this current SSW over Eurasia will have any impact in our weather over North America.  Will the PV eventually swing over into Canada as we enter November or will it take up residence in Siberia???  Time will tell..Nonetheless, Winter is certainly taking over in the Northern Hemisphere.

[Niko]

First snowshowers of the season visited SEMI today and I really enjoyed it. At times it was coming down very hard along with strong winds. It looked like a snowstorm was happening. Only lasted a few minutes and after an hour or so, another batch came. It was fun watching snow falling for the first time this season. Cartops whitened up a bit, but rapidly melted once the snowshowers ended.  Could this mean a rough winter is coming??!!! Snow this early in the season??!!! Hmmm!!

 

Lows tonight in the mid to upper 20's with snowshowers ending.... Brrr!!!!!

[Geos]

Hit 29° this morning here and got up to 51°. A slight breeze kept the temp out of the mid 20s I think. Tonight on the other hand, it could get that low.

[Tom]

Back to back Official 33F lows at ORD, no Freeze yet around here, although it was frosty and there is still some frost on the roofs facing away from the sun.  NLCS Game 3 & 4 still look windy with hit or miss showers in the forecast.  Tuesday looks like it may be the better day.  Another Schwarber dinger???

 

A string of warm & windy days ahead around here, leaves on the trees should start blowing off after these frosty mornings.  Tomorrow wind gusts around bein predicted to be around 40mph out of the south.  Indian Summer???

 

00z Euro showing a wet pattern through the next 10 days and another interesting system in the extended.  

[Tom]

Signs of Siberian Polar Air may be retreating the "homeland" and coming across the pole into North America after Day 5.  A ridge is to displace some of the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere and establish itself near the Archipelago region of Canada in the 5-10 Day period.  12z Euro picking up on that Day 7 below...

 

The Northern Hemispheric 500mb pattern below illustrates the Pacific jet coming to life.  Another Typhoon is set to re-curve in the western Pacific over the next 4-5 days which should influence the weather pattern over the lower 48 as we close out the month.  

 

Interestingly, both the GFS/EURO show the AO heading negative after a brief "blip" positive from the (20th-24th).  We might have some wild weather to close out the month in the central CONUS.  Waiting to see the Euro Weeklies come in and see what they have to say.

 

Canada may have a lot of snow by months end leading to a build up of some arctic air...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015101818/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

CFSv2 continues to show a very "wet" signal not only for the central/eastern CONUS, but the drought stricken reigon of the PAC NW gets in on the action as the Pacific comes to life.

 

 

[gosaints]

Stay hot murphy

[Tom]

November '97 (strong El Nino) was cold in the lower 48 but Nov '09 (moderate El Nino) was very warm...wonder how it works out this year???  Any ideas???

[gabel23]

November '97 (strong El Nino) was cold in the lower 48 but Nov '09 (moderate El Nino) was very warm...wonder how it works out this year??? Any ideas???

In 97 we had a big snowstorm over Halloween that dropped close to 20" of snow in spots. November 09 was very warm but December turned cold and snowy early, starting with a major blizzard on the 8th. Those who live in the plains don't have to get reminded what happened on x mas that year. Big player in 2009 was ao and nao, I am hoping this year it turns negative also.

[Tom]

In 97 we had a big snowstorm over Halloween that dropped close to 20" of snow in spots. November 09 was very warm but December turned cold and snowy early, starting with a major blizzard on the 8th. Those who live in the plains don't have to get reminded what happened on x mas that year. Big player in 2009 was ao and nao, I am hoping this year it turns negative also.

I think the -AO will be a player this season, but the NAO is questionable...might not have a real -NAO till later on in Winter.  We'll see how it plays out.  I think for the majority of the central CONUS, the AO will be the key player and if we can get the PNA to hold near neutral/negative territory this will create a west/east storm track that swings across the country instead of the NW Flow pattern.

 

Some of the models showing signs of wintry systems in the Plains as we head into November.  I wouldn't be surprised if you guys get hit early on this season.

[clintbeed1993]

We need it BADLY.  After the last 3 or 4 dismal winters in the Plains.  Can't take much more disappointment.

[Maxim]

think we have a legit shot of setting a new record for driest October ever.

[gosaints]

above normal through the extended.  october should finish a fair bit above normal

[Tom]

Wildest and coldest CFS run yet for folks in the Plains... certainly painting a stormy central CONUS from Nov thru Dec...

 

December 1st...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/19/basis00/namk/weas/15120112_1900.gif

 

Christmas Day...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/19/basis00/namk/weas/15122512_1900.gif

[gosaints]

  CFS solidly above normal through november 15th.  As has been pointed out anything beyond that is a guess.  Though the monthlies are all still showing above normal.

[OKwx2k4]

Bring it on Tom! CFS is trying it's best to correct to the other models at 500mb also. If one were to take a blend of them all at this point in time, we have a wall to wall winter coming with continental polar air locked in over the central US. Low in a nice spot over the Aleutians, a +1 sigma PNA. It would be insane to see it all work out.

[Maxim]

Just don't like how some people are trying to wish this into a cold and "brutal" winter. Not saying everyone on here is doing that, but I noticed a couple people...

[OKwx2k4]

You're welcome to correct what I'm missing by interpretation of the models. Just stating my interpretation and understanding. I welcome intelligent correction and an opportunity to learn.

[Maxim]

CFS solidly above normal through november 15th.  As has been pointed out anything beyond that is a guess.  Though the monthlies are all still showing above normal.

the last few runs of the CFS were the torchiest yet for November.

[Maxim]

You're welcome to correct what I'm missing by interpretation of the models. Just stating my interpretation and understanding. I welcome intelligent correction and an opportunity to learn.

I wasn't referring to you specifically or personally attacking you. I was just expressing how I felt about a couple that seemed to be almost wishcasting. And it's completely normal too, every weather forum has that going on. No big deal, but just don't want it to be too excessive.

[Tom]

CFSv2 last 10 runs...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201511.gif

 

Signal is there for a nice trough in the 4 corners region, ridging to the north...might be the SW flow that the other models are showing at 500mb like OKwx2k4 is mentioning.

[Tom]

Just don't like how some people are trying to wish this into a cold and "brutal" winter. Not saying everyone on here is doing that, but I noticed a couple people...

Same goes for a torchy Winter...there are those on here that are also wishcasting for a "torch" this Winter.  2 sides to the coin, but I'll speak for myself here and say that for the Dec-Mar period, other than the CFSv2, most global models are hinting at an active/cold winter from the Rockies to the East.  Find me another model that disagrees besides the CFSv2.  I'm just showing the model maps and putting my 2 cents on what they are illustrating and what bias or model error there may be. 

[OKwx2k4]

Same goes for a torchy Winter...there are those on here that are also wishcasting for a "torch" this Winter. 2 sides to the coin, but I'll speak for myself here and say that for the Dec-Mar period, other than the CFSv2, most global models are hinting at an active/cold winter from the Rockies to the East. Find me another model that disagrees besides the CFSv2. I'm just showing the model maps and putting my 2 cents on what they are illustrating and what bias or model error there may be.

Same here or doing my best at it. Bias is human nature. We all have them. I won't even try to act like I don't like snow, because I do. I value folks opinions that have an opposite viewpoint to mine because they encourage me to learn why it could be seen that way. However, that being said,I can't change what the models and indices forecasts say. If they all said 'torch' I would have to agree. They dont.

 

Most of all of my pure opinions will be prefaced with "I think" or some variety of that for the sake of clarity.

[james1976]

How has the Euro been looking as we get closer to Nov?

[Tom]

How has the Euro been looking as we get closer to Nov?

The Euro Weeklies come out tonight and I'll comment on them later.  The Euro Monthlies show the trough south of the Aleutians, western Canada ridge and an active southern jet.  Very similar to the JMA/CMC/JAMSTEC.

[gosaints]

climo

[Maxim]

I mean, this is going to end up being an east based super nino by the looks of it. It may still be basin wide right now, but the warm pool has expanded east pretty substantially. It's hard to get a lot of cold and snow from that, and also due to the fact that Canada will more than definitely be warmer than average this winter (still cold obviously in the grand scheme of things). But that basically means that even if we do get cold shots this winter (and we will), they won't be as strong or as potent as the last two winters. Just my two cents there. Only time will tell...

[Maxim]

climo

More to it than that of course since the sample size is so small, but yeah, that'll play a role too.

[gosaints]

More to it than that of course since the sample size is so small, but yeah, that'll play a role too.

I understand that but it should play as large of role at the cansips or some other abcd model

[Tom]

I mean, this is going to end up being an east based super nino by the looks of it. It may still be basin wide right now, but the warm pool has expanded east pretty substantially. It's hard to get a lot of cold and snow from that, and also due to the fact that Canada will more than definitely be warmer than average this winter (still cold obviously in the grand scheme of things). But that basically means that even if we do get cold shots this winter (and we will), they won't be as strong or as potent as the last two winters. Just my two cents there. Only time will tell...

Where has has it expanded east???  Looks more central-based to me...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif

 

Late August and in September westerlies made an attempt to push the warm waters east into ENSO 1.2 Region but failed.

 

Warmest waters are near ENSO 3.4 & 3 Regions...

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/teleconnections/nino-regions.gif

 

Definetely not ENSO 1.2 Region like '97/'98.

[james1976]

GFS looking a bit active but still warm. Looks like its trying to go zonal.

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies still showing the Aleutian Low coming alive and systems slamming the west coast towards the end of the month.  November starts off stormy in the central CONUS through the 1st week of November.  Following that, it's lining up with the CFSv2 and creating a storm track into the desert southwest around the 10th of November through the 20th.  By mid November to about Thanksgiving week, I think we may be seeing a Winter type pattern as the NW NAMER ridge builds up and the jet continues to cut underneath into Cali.  Thanksgiving week could get real cold early on.  Something the CFS has been showing a lot lately as we get closer.

[OKwx2k4]

Very nice sounding run.

[Tom]

Nov 10th-20th seems like it could be the best period for the Plains to see some snow events that cut northeastward.  Euro Weeklies also seeing a very wet November as the jet intensifies and El Nino symptoms begin to occur.  You can get the feel that there is some sort of west coast/central trough that develops in November and the East Coast see's more ridging.  Should be a nice pattern for alot of us to see storminess.