October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

Today's 12z GFS is pretty much a torch. The big cool shot it was showing for the weekend of the 17th is gone. Maybe it will flip flop cuz thats over a week away. But even the cool down for Tuesday next week is almost gone on this run.

Euro has been more consistent in the medium range...GFS on the other hand, is flip flopping in medium and long range...just like the 18z run...look how cold that run is in the extended!  

[Geos]

18z GFS a bit cooler later on now.

 

Next Sunday.

 

 

Then mid week the motherload comes down!

 

[Maxim]

18z GFS a bit cooler later on now.

 

Next Sunday.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100818/gfs_T850_ncus_41.png

 

Then mid week the motherload comes down!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100818/gfs_T850_ncus_49.png

HR 336...

[james1976]

The thing with the GFS is that it always shows cold and then as we get a bit closer it turns into a torch. I realize models struggle with medium-long range but it's irritating when you want the pattern to change. Sometimes I wish models didn't go past 7 days.

[Tom]

The thing with the GFS is that it always shows cold and then as we get a bit closer it turns into a torch. I realize models struggle with medium-long range but it's irritating when you want the pattern to change. Sometimes I wish models didn't go past 7 days.

We just have to live with it, especially in the 8-14 day period...models ain't perfect and never will be.  Transition months like October are the most difficult months for modeling because there is so much going on in the atmosphere.  Not to mention, when the SOI is crashing, modeling often times have a tough time taking into account the amount of energy coming out of the Pacific.

 

Anyhow, hopefully the wetter pattern the CFSv2 is picking up during Week 1-2 will start showing up on the models.  Pretty boring ATM.  Times like this I wish I was still in AZ where I can enjoy the pool/sun some more!

[Tom]

00z GFS showing a pattern that could be possible as a piece of Pacific energy rides along the southern edge of the Hudson Bay vortex and tugs down the chilliest air of the season.  Just need the EURO to come on board.  I touched on this just yesterday...manifestation???  HA!

[OKwx2k4]

00z GFS showing a pattern that could be possible as a piece of Pacific energy rides along the southern edge of the Hudson Bay vortex and tugs down the chilliest air of the season. Just need the EURO to come on board. I touched on this just yesterday...manifestation??? HA!

Anything is possible right now in the extended. I imagine model skill scores are probably headed toward the crapper with the storm heading to Alaska and all that going on. Lol

[Tom]

00z GFS drank the "cool" aide....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100900/gfs_T2m_us_46.png

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah. I'd say!!

[Tom]

That Bearing Sea trough (remnants of the Tyhpoon) in the Day 5-10 period is going to play a major role with the Alaskan Ridge...which will directly affect our weather down stream.  Increased snow cover in North America will contribute to colder outbreaks this month as I expected.  Let's see how it works out.

[NEJeremy]

We're expecting record highs here on Sunday near 90!! Not a drop of rain forecast for the next 7 days either. Thankfully, it's supposed to cool back down into the 70s right away on Monday and the rest of next week.

[Maxim]

Reminds me of the pattern we had earlier in March, except not as extreme.

[Tom]

00z Euro has some frosty mornings next weekend near the Midwest/Lakes region.  Pockets of mid/upper 30's showing up in IA/WI.

 

CFSv2/EURO/GFS seeing the -AO pattern to continue thru late month.  As the NW NAMER/Alaskan Ridge builds, snowfall takes a breather in that region while central/eastern Canada see their first snows.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015100906/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

[gosaints]

Cool shots to be expected. Average low here is down to under 40 now.  Still more above average than below average showing up even in the long range.

[gosaints]

  Exciting 10 days on the GFS.... Basically zero precip

[Geos]

00z Euro has some frosty mornings next weekend near the Midwest/Lakes region.  Pockets of mid/upper 30's showing up in IA/WI.

 

CFSv2/EURO/GFS seeing the -AO pattern to continue thru late month.  As the NW NAMER/Alaskan Ridge builds, snowfall takes a breather in that region while central/eastern Canada see their first snows.

 

 

Wow that's a lot of snow forecasted for the Yukon and areas west of Yellowknife!

 

That's where some of our coldest air comes from.

 

All I know is that we always get a cold surge in October, just a matter of when it comes this year.

 

Today feels like it is back to normal after yesterday's summer warmth.

[Maxim]

Wow that's a lot of snow forecasted for the Yukon and areas west of Yellowknife!

 

That's where some of our coldest air comes from.

 

All I know is that we always get a cold surge in October, just a matter of when it comes this year.

 

Today feels like it is back to normal after yesterday's summer warmth.

October 2007 never had much of a cold surge. But then again, it depends on your definition of "cold" in October.

[Tom]

October 2007 never had much of a cold surge. But then again, it depends on your definition of "cold" in October.

I think the 12z Euro run Day 7-10 is his definition of mid October "cold"...

 

The Euro brings a Clipper through the Lakes next Friday and tugs down the coldest air of the season next weekend.  Daytime highs in the 40's from MI/WI/MN nxt Fri/Sat, Frost/Freezes likely if this holds near the Lakes next weekend. I don't think we'll be seeing to many nicer weekend days like this weekend in the foreseeable future.

[Hawkeye]

It appears the 12z Euro would have Saturday morning (192 hrs) the coldest here in eastern Iowa.  By Sunday morning we're seeing return flow.  The 12z GFS has Friday morning the coldest, although not as cold as the Euro.

[Geos]

October 2007 never had much of a cold surge. But then again, it depends on your definition of "cold" in October.

 

Yeah except that October. Forgot about that one.

Highs in the 40s for 3 days or more, I would classify as a cold surge/snap for October.

 

That month preceded the snowiest winter on record for UGN.

 

---

 

Yeah that looks chilly next Saturday. 

First snow showers probably for the upper Midwest.

 

[Geos]

Down right chilly out there right now. 43° currently under clear skies with calm winds. Heading for the high 30s at this pace.

[Maxim]

Pretty impressive looking temp gradient setting up for next weekend if it even comes close to verifying. 20C 850's in Iowa and -5C 850's in parts of Michigan at the same time.

[Tom]

October Snows inching closer to the U.S./Canadian border...GFS/EURO are beginning to agree at a much colder pattern next weekend into early the following week.  The Lakes region seems to be getting the worst of the cold.

 

 

00z Euro has first Lake Snows for the U.P. next weekend, maybe even lower MI and off of Lake Erie.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015101006/gfs_asnow_namer_41.png

[Geos]

Bottomed out at 39° this morning. Coldest morning of the season. These cold night and warm days will accelerate the tree color.

[Tom]

12z GFS now backing the trough farther west for next Fri/Sat...some cold night time lows showing up, prob a bit overdone I'd say...back to back 40's for daytime highs???

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015101012/gfs_T2m_us_29.png

[Geos]

12z GFS now backing the trough farther west for next Fri/Sat...some cold night time lows showing up, prob a bit overdone I'd say...back to back 40's for daytime highs???

 

 

As long as there isn't too many clouds and there isn't much wind I could see having an area wide frost next Saturday morning.

20s in central and northern WI aren't unheard of this early.

[james1976]

Just got my furnace all checked out yesterday so I'm ready to go!

[Tom]

Interesting Euro Ensembles showing up the past couple days for Week 1-2. CFSv2 was the first to show signs of a wetter pattern hitting the West Coast, then systems eventually making its way into the Central CONUS.  Nice Blocking over the top near Alaska and Hudson Bay which should allow systems to traverse underneath.

 

AO is forecast to maintain in the negative territory through the end of the month.  If there is anytime to expect a stormier pattern, it would be roughly after Oct 18th/19th.

[OKwx2k4]

Excellent!

[Tom]

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover continues to blossom, especially in western Siberia/Russia.  This is well ahead of what the CFS model was predicting weeks ago and a trend that should catch a weary eye.  Dr. Judah Cohen's Snow Advance Theory (SAI) suggests if there is an October build up of Snow in Eurasia, the probability of High Latitude blocking is increased.  Lately, the AO has taken a dive and both the CFSv2/EURO model are suggesting it to maintain in the negative territory for the remainder of this month.

 

Current Snow Cover in Eurasia...

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

 

Next 10 Days...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015101106/gfs_asnow_asia_41.png

 

 

Eastern Europe is going to have a heck of a Winter this year, especially if the Icelandic Low develops.  As we head across the Pond and into North America, our Snow cover is expanding daily well ahead of the norm.

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/daily_dn/2015283.png

 

 

 

By mid November, the CFS model pretty much showing Canada completely covered with Snow.  Let's see how well it does.  It even has a sliver of snow for the northern Plains/Lakes.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/11/basis00/namk/weas/15111500_1100.gif

 

December 1st...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/11/basis00/namk/weas/15120100_1100.gif

 

White Christmas???

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/11/basis00/namk/weas/15122512_1100.gif

 

 

CFS model keeps painting that Aleutian Low which creates the NW NAMER ridge, but also spins systems underneath the ridge into the Rockies where systems ride across the country.  Hopefully we get an active Split Flow pattern unlike last year.

 

 

Finally, I'll finish with this, warming in the Stratosphere has begun early on this season and could be a tell-tale sign that there will be Blocking this season.  Notice the 30mb warming where the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is currently right over western Russia/Siberia.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

[Maxim]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

watch this be the common theme for this winter

[Tom]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

watch this be the common theme for this winter

Did you miss Week 2???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

[Tom]

12z Euro Day 8 period showing potential for a Cutter type system forming along a boundary hanging back from the southern Plains into the Lakes.  There is a cut-off piece of energy that lags behind in the 4 corners that may have potential, along with the reverse flow out of the GOM which is aided by the strong surface HP in the SE.

[clintbeed1993]

Really hard to think about cold/snow when we are sitting at 96 freaking degrees on October 11th.  Unbelievable.

[gabel23]

Really hard to think about cold/snow when we are sitting at 96 freaking degrees on October 11th.  Unbelievable.

Yeah this is crazy, we could see a record for all time warmest day in October.

[CentralNebWeather]

I am with you. Sitting at 94 here with 12% humidity. Make it stop.

[Tom]

Wow, impressive temps out in the Plains today.  Down sloping winds, low dewpoints really had temps take off today!  Models under performed with that respect.  By Friday, night time temps on the Euro are showing mid 30's for Nebraska.  

[Tom]

12z EPS/Control showing a couple systems that may have some Cutter potential after the 18th/19th....a nice ridge develops off the East Coast as the PNA dips back towards neutral.  Central CONUS going to get some action IMO.

[Maxim]

97° at Fargo today... unreal.

[Hawkeye]

97° at Fargo today... unreal.

 

Wow, I had no idea it was that warm out in the plains.