October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[gosaints]

Cant imagine what 97 felt like in fargo.  84 broke a record here.  Been a record setting fall around here.  Warmest september on record as well

[Tom]

The Euro Ensembles are heading towards what the CFS saw long ago and building the Aleutian Low in the extended.  A much colder/stormier pattern is shaping up to close out October for the central CONUS.  Finally, some true Autumnal weather looks to grip the Nation after this Hot spell that hit the Plains yesterday.  

 

I still can't believe it hit 97F in Fargo yesterday!  That's like Arizona desert heat with the low humidity.  It's going to feel like Winter up there in a few days.  Speaking of Winter, 00z EPS and CFS hinting at some flakes of snow for NE folks Day 10-15.

[gosaints]

I buy more autumn like weather with up and downs like crazy.  CFS is above average for the next 20-25 days around here

[Tom]

CFS seeing a mid November Winter tease for OKC...it's been on this colder pattern for a while now...

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2015/10/12/basis00/namk/weas/15111700_1200.gif

[Tom]

I buy more autumn like weather with up and downs like crazy.  CFS is above average for the next 20-25 days around here

I dunno, it's hard to buy into that with the AO in the negative.  GFS/EURO/CFSv2 all seeing that...I'm more interested in seeing this storm track setting up.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

In other news, Cub's Ace Jake Arrieta takes on the Red Birds at Wrigley Field today for Game 3 of the NLDS.  With a howling sustained West wind today, better hope no mistakes are made as there may be some home runs out into right field today for both pitchers.  Go Cub's Go!

[gosaints]

cfs weeklies have been pretty solid.  They are not drastically above average especially the further east you go.  CFS still advertising above average november as well

[Tom]

cfs weeklies have been pretty solid.  They are not drastically above average especially the further east you go.  CFS still advertising above average november as well

Yup, the CFSv2 is still showing an above avg November, but look at its trends over the past week blossoming warmth in NW Canada.  If you warm that part of the world, there is no way it is warm in the central/eastern CONUS.  Just doesn't happen, unless that warmth was farther south, but not like its trending in the arctic.  You can also see the cooling in the southern Plains suggesting the southern branch becoming active and setting up a trough over the 4 corners region/central CONUS.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20151012.201511.gif

 

Model is seeing a Bearing Sea trough, ridge pumping in Central Canada but that may trend back farther NW in time...

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20151012.201511.gif

 

October 1st the model saw a trough hugging NW NAMER....that is disappearing quickly...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z200.20151001.201511.gif

[Tom]

06z GEFS showing what may be the pattern as we head into the heart of Autumn (late October/November).  Notice the 5 blobs of blue in the map below.  Let's focus in on the Bearing Sea, which is in essence the Aleutian Low handing off pieces of energy underneath the Alaskan Ridge (creating the Split Flow pattern).  Also, the southern branch kicks in near the 4 corners region which may be ignited by the Subtropical Jet (notice that small blue blob SE of Hawaii).  The Rockies will get their first snows of the season later next week.  Later on in the season, more towards Winter, I'd imagine the STJ to start intensifying.

 

Lastly, the Hudson Bay low will play a major role sending rounds of cold air into the lower 48.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015101206/gfs-ens_z500a_namer_37.png

[Geos]

Wow, I had no idea it was that warm out in the plains.

 

I had no idea either, until I saw the regional highs at the end of the day.

 

77° was the high here yesterday. Today it is cloudy and now starting to cool off with the cold front just now passing through.

[gabel23]

Yeah this is crazy, we could see a record for all time warmest day in October.

 

Pretty incredible with the temps yesterday. Here is the link to the record that was set at both Hastings and GI, all time records as I thought would happen. 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GID&product=PNS&issuedby=GID

[Tom]

12z GFS...first snows heading into the Rockies, Lake Snows in the Great Lakes and some snows in the Arrowhead of MN...NE gets in on the action...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015101212/gfs_asnow_us_41.png

[gabel23]

I dunno, it's hard to buy into that with the AO in the negative.  GFS/EURO/CFSv2 all seeing that...I'm more interested in seeing this storm track setting up.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

 

In other news, Cub's Ace Jake Arrieta takes on the Red Birds at Wrigley Field today for Game 3 of the NLDS.  With a howling sustained West wind today, better hope no mistakes are made as there may be some home runs out into right field today for both pitchers.  Go Cub's Go!

 

 

I have to coach my Junior high football team to their last game of the year starting at 4:30. I'll be on the road listening to it, GO CUBS GO!!!!!

[NEJeremy]

It was 98 in Norfolk, NE yesterday too. Hottest temp I saw in the area. Hit 92 here in Omaha. Now they're talking about frost/freeze potential this Friday night

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro is the coldest run yet for Saturday morning, dropping the 850 temp to -4 to -6C.  The surface map shows only nearing 32 in spots, but it often underforecasts lows on the cold mornings.  I won't be surprised if the NWS ends up with upper 20s to low 30s.  That would largely take care of my garden blooms.

[Tom]

First Fall Freezes about a week behind schedule for next weekend...

 

http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/GIS_plots/frz_fall/frzmed_32_shd_Central.png

[Geos]

My 7 day has 33-34° right now for low on Saturday and Sunday mornings. 

I have to look at my records, but I think in the last 10 years I've been averaging about Oct. 10th as the first 32° low. The first sub 40° low was a bit late this autumn.

[Geos]

watch this be the common theme for this winter

 

Dry signal is diminishing now. 

If this is the sign of things to come it's a good thing.

 

---

 

Earlier we get the snow cover down in the north, the higher chance the Midwest and every other place in the northern U.S. will see a battle ground set up with the stronger southern branch and the cold air dome that will want to move into the U.S. 

[Tom]

12z Euro has ORD hitting 33F Saturday night...calm winds under HP may do the job.

 

CFSv2 def picking up on a wetter pattern in the extended...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cfs-avg/2015101212/cfs-avg_apcpna7d_us_2.png

[OKwx2k4]

Good posts folks. It's not uncommon to hit another 80 plus reading or 3 here in NE OK before the end of the month but it gets substantially harder to do here in about 5 days or so. I just forget how warm October can be sometimes. I don't think it means much in the longer term. Just makes the cold flip that is coming seem a lot more drastic.

[Geos]

12z Euro has ORD hitting 33F Saturday night...calm winds under HP may do the job.

 

CFSv2 def picking up on a wetter pattern in the extended...

 

 

Get everything to move 150-200 miles further southeast and this is a good look for winter. Nice return flow from the Gulf.

 

Winds are roaring outside right now. Still sunny in the dry slot overhead.

[Tom]

The Day 10-15 period may be liable to bringing significantly colder air.  Both the GFS/EURO are seeing a slight split of the Polar Vortex Day 10 that could send very cold air for the season down into the Lower 48.  Not only that, but the GFS has been hinting at another major Typhoon to hit Japan Day 8-10.  Still questionable.

 

12z GFS 30mb Day 10...

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2015101212/NH_HGT_30mb_252.gif

 

12z EPS also starting to hint a big trough in the central CONUS.

 

 

[Niko]

Major push of Chilly air by this weekend. My highs are expected to be in the 40s for highs on Saturday and lows in the upper 20's. Yikes. Alot of us on this board will feel this chill.

 

Also, colors are changing beautifully. Excellent scenery with almost near peak.

[Tom]

Euro Weeklies just came in tonight and look nasty to close out October and open November.  Great pattern for storminess from the Rockies and points east with blocking over the top near Alaska & Greenland.  It's also showing a ton of precip from the Plains on East with potential Snows early in November.

[clintbeed1993]

I see we are starting the fantasy land forecasting early this year. Haha

 

Was hoping for October snow this year.  It's been awhile since the last early snow in Nebraska.

[Tom]

I knew the wind would be a player in today's Cub's victory!  Cubbies set 2 records...#1 Soler is on base 9 out of 9 times in the Playoffs, #2 Cubs hit a RECORD 6 Home Runs in a single Playoff Game!  #WeAreGood

 

Tomorrow it will be windy yet again, this time out of the NW so it may be a left-hand hitter long ball kind of day.  Let's Clinch boys!

 

 

I see we are starting the fantasy land forecasting early this year. Haha

 

Was hoping for October snow this year.  It's been awhile since the last early snow in Nebraska.

Haha!  Actually, CFS/EURO seeing snow flakes to finish off the month in your region.

 

Just trying to point out what I'm seeing as this is an entirely new pattern evolving before our eyes.

[OKwx2k4]

Those are awesome maps.

[Maxim]

nice seeing some systems in the long range...

http://i.imgur.com/7YmSqtP.png

http://i.imgur.com/vD2yeza.png

[gabel23]

I knew the wind would be a player in today's Cub's victory!  Cubbies set 2 records...#1 Soler is on base 9 out of 9 times in the Playoffs, #2 Cubs hit a RECORD 6 Home Runs in a single Playoff Game!  #WeAreGood

 

Tomorrow it will be windy yet again, this time out of the NW so it may be a left-hand hitter long ball kind of day.  Let's Clinch boys!

 

 

 

Haha!  Actually, CFS/EURO seeing snow flakes to finish off the month in your region.

 

Just trying to point out what I'm seeing as this is an entirely new pattern evolving before our eyes.

What a game tom, let's clinch is right!!! Hoping hammel pitches a gem......so a nw breeze blows towards right correct? I'm a betting man and I'm thinking another high scoring game might be in the cards....

[Tom]

What a game tom, let's clinch is right!!! Hoping hammel pitches a gem......so a nw breeze blows towards right correct? I'm a betting man and I'm thinking another high scoring game might be in the cards....

Today, the wind started out WSW then was due West.  So tomorrow, it will have a bit of a northerly component and it will be really difficult to hit it out of the park into left or center field.  My bet is the left-handed hitters will be crushing some balls or opposite field homers by the right-hand hitters.  It'll be colder though, temps in the mid 50's to start, then down into low 50's...less gusty also.  I was just thinking, if the Cubs can make it to the World Series, wonder how cold it will be then???

[Geos]

The cirrus this morning were eye-catching to say the least.

Beautiful day today, but a bit windy with gusts approaching 35mph.

 

[Tom]

00z GFS trying to spin up a system next Tuesday out in the Plain that tracks towards the northern Lakes.  If that energy can come out of the 4 corners region quick enough, it can phase with the northern piece a little earlier.  Might be the first storm system of the season.

[Tom]

ULL near Lake Huron is rotating a stratus deck into N IL and may end becoming a rather cloudy, windy Autumnal day around here.  Tree's are beginning to really  change color around the neighborhood.  After this weekends freeze/frost, I'm sure it will expedite the changing colors.  Might have to start raking leaves next week which will be perfect timing for our first Leaf Pickup by mid next week.

[Geos]

Color change is probably at 50%-60% locally now. Getting a nice collection of leaves on the ground in spots.

Clouds just thickened up as the morning went on. Probably not making the upper 50s at this rate.

[NEJeremy]

local met posted this morning that the 30 day outlook from the Euro has storms emerging onto the Plains on 10/20, 10/25, 10/27, 10/30, 11/7, and 11/10!! What a pattern that would be!!

[james1976]

local met posted this morning that the 30 day outlook from the Euro has storms emerging onto the Plains on 10/20, 10/25, 10/27, 10/30, 11/7, and 11/10!! What a pattern that would be!!

That would be epic.

[james1976]

Yup, getting cloudy here as well. Only low 50s. Finally feeling like Autumn!

[Tom]

local met posted this morning that the 30 day outlook from the Euro has storms emerging onto the Plains on 10/20, 10/25, 10/27, 10/30, 11/7, and 11/10!! What a pattern that would be!!

The one on the 20th is already showing up on the GFS/Euro which is nice to see and another bigger system after that one.  What will be key to see if any one of these systems spins up to a wound up storm.  Need the AO to stay neutral/negative...so far so good.

[NEJeremy]

What a game tom, let's clinch is right!!! Hoping hammel pitches a gem......so a nw breeze blows towards right correct? I'm a betting man and I'm thinking another high scoring game might be in the cards....

I think a northwest wind is more of a cross wind. Normally a southwest wind is straight out to center, so west wind would be out to right and then northwest wind a cross wind. Could still help lefties though. GO CUBS!!!!!

[Maxim]

How awesome would this be? Although it's kind of a waste of a trough. Doubt it verifies though.

 

http://i.imgur.com/eRH3tES.png

[gabel23]

local met posted this morning that the 30 day outlook from the Euro has storms emerging onto the Plains on 10/20, 10/25, 10/27, 10/30, 11/7, and 11/10!! What a pattern that would be!!

Who posted that Jeremy?? Could you send me that link please?! Thanks, man I'm hoping its active, I don't care if its warm or cold storms just give us storms! The past 5-7 years we have had nothing but NW flow; and normally El nino's bring a southwest flow so hoping for that to be the dominate storm pattern in this years LRC. GO CUBS! I'm so excited I can barely control myself.....having Russell out of the lineup hurts our defense a little. Nothing against Baez, but nobody is as good and consistent at short as Addison. Another thing, which is hard to believe, the cubs have never clinched a series at Wrigley! Lets break that today!!