October 2015 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

RPM model showed wrap around snow showers late Wednesday night not far from here and points north.

[Tom]

00z NAM...

 

 

[Tom]

Cold dense fog in Rapid City right now. 43° and damp.

Your area might be the first to get some true wintry weather next week.  Looking forward to seeing some snow?

[Geos]

This system is looking more dynamic by the model run. Last NAM run deepening the low even further. By the looks of it, the first trace of snow in southern WI will fall and even possibly here.

 

 

Another frosty morning today ~ low of 35°. Looking forward to this storm - we need a change!

[james1976]

DMX talking possible snow showers wednesday night. If the colder air can get here sooner then its possible but idk.

[OKwx2k4]

DMX talking possible snow showers wednesday night. If the colder air can get here sooner then its possible but idk.

Hopefully you folks up there get to see some flakes!

[Tom]

From LOT:

 

 

 

WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PROBABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE
COLD FRONT ITSELF IS LIKELY TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG
AND NEAR IT BASED ON UNSTABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE RAPID
COOLING IN THE SHALLOW BUT CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS...IT IS
POSSIBLE TO HAVE GRAUPEL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT AFTERNOON.
WRAPAROUND DEFORMATION WITH THE FULLY DEVELOPED CYCLONE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY TO SEND SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
FOR THURSDAY...AND THIS IS WHERE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES
COULD BE SEEN THURSDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
SOME FLURRIES TOWARD ROCKFORD.

 

[Tom]

Tracking this Autumn storm and seeing it go through cyclogenesis over the next 24-36 hours is getting me amped up for the wintry systems this season!  Rains knocking on our doorstep here in N IL...

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20151027.1551.gif

 

 

 

Should be a rather windy/raw day later this afternoon into tomorrow.  Hope there are some flakes of snow late tomorrow night, if not, may not get our first flakes till sometime in November.  Average day for first flakes is Oct 31st for ORD.

[james1976]

Yeah this system is interesting. Gonna be fun to track when the LRC recycles.

[Tom]

Saw this post from JB on Wx Bell on the Brazilian Meteogram...

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Screen_Shot_2015_10_27_at_12_20_51_PM.png

 

 

Couple things to point out for November.  I see the GFS/CFSv2/Brazilian/Euro all pointing to a sharp cool down after the 7th for about 4-5 days.  Then we may see a pull back before the arctic air reloads sometime before Thanksgiving week and that is when Winter may be out of the Gates running.  The Euro Weeklies pretty much agree to some degree to the above chart from the Brazilian.  I've been watching each run of the CFSv2 and it to has been showing the stormy/cold last 10 days or so of November, which the Brazilian is seeing, as well as the Euro weeklies.  It's interesting most models are starting to hint at some interesting weather down the road.

[NEJeremy]

We haven't even made it to freezing yet this year, although tomorrow night we may do it. It's supposed to stay pretty breezy though so I'm not sure if we will make it. This has probably been the best the fall foliage has been in quite a long time from what I can remember. It's been perfect conditions: temps and moisture and not a lot of windy days either.

[Tom]

Latest CFSv2 run thru November 7th-29th has only 4 or 5 days where the 850's near Chicago are above 0C.  Most of them avg -2/-4C, some even colder, especially later in the month towards Thanksgiving week.  Systems galor for central CONUS.  Not many wrapped up systems along the East Coast, mainly targeting the central states.

[OKwx2k4]

Latest CFSv2 run thru November 7th-29th has only 4 or 5 days where the 850's near Chicago are above 0C. Most of them avg -2/-4C, some even colder, especially later in the month towards Thanksgiving week. Systems galor for central CONUS. Not many wrapped up systems along the East Coast, mainly targeting the central states.

Will be closer to end of November I think before much cold air can get all the way across Oklahoma. I love all the hints I'm seeing out of the pattern for my area though. That meteogram that you posted is a heck of a lot snowier than the last one I saw for Chicago and it was pretty snowy also. I keep wanting to hurry things along but I'm reminding myself that November isn't a winter month. Lol. No need to waste arctic air this early. December will be just fine.

[Tom]

It would be awesome to see somewhat of a November 1977 start to the cold season and never let off the gas peddle.

Here's a link that shows the weather history from November 1st - Dec 31st...

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMDW/1977/11/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=31&monthend=12&yearend=1977&req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

 

The way November started off in 1977 is very similar to where the models are heading.  Notice the very warm 60's/70's the first 5 days, then a steady down turn in temps, esp after the 9th...then a pull back, before the bottom drops later in the month around Thanksgiving week.  Lot's of snow events that month as well.

[Tom]

Will be closer to end of November I think before much cold air can get all the way across Oklahoma. I love all the hints I'm seeing out of the pattern for my area though. That meteogram that you posted is a heck of a lot snowier than the last one I saw for Chicago and it was pretty snowy also. I keep wanting to hurry things along but I'm reminding myself that November isn't a winter month. Lol. No need to waste arctic air this early. December will be just fine.

Check out this link for the CFSv2 model...it comes in 4x/day, a lot better than the one I gave you before:

 

http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/

 

Click on the CFSv2 tab, then on the left side of the screen you can adjust parameters accordingly.

[OKwx2k4]

Check out this link for the CFSv2 model...it comes in 4x/day, a lot better than the one I gave you before:

 

http://www.weather.cod.edu/forecast/

 

Click on the CFSv2 tab, then on the left side of the screen you can adjust parameters accordingly.

Awesome! Thank you! We'll trade links. Lol. I found the Brazilian meteograms link.

 

http://previsaonumerica.cptec.inpe.br/~rpnum/meteogramas/meteo_acopladot062.shtml

[OKwx2k4]

Thank you again for all of the resources. I've been studying the daily weather maps for Oct and November 1977 for a couple of days now also. The similarities to what has happened and what the models are all showing are pretty awesome. My hunting season looks crazy this year. :-)

[james1976]

Man, that storm showing up late next week/weekend has a lot of potential but that massive H just destroys it.

[Geos]

Nice to hear a soaking rain outside finally. High of 56° today - cloudy pretty much the entire day.

 

On the topic of El Niño autumn's. I looked back at October of 1997, it started off really warm (first 9 days here well above normal) and then then it backed to near normal with some good cold shots. Seen quite a bit of mild days this month and not just concentrated at one time either. November looks to start off milder than 1997 right now. 

Got a feeling a lot will be learned from having a warm Pacific from the equator to Alaska.

[OKwx2k4]

I keep waiting anxiously for the model run that shows the nice cold front finally making it all the way across Oklahoma. It never makes it. :-(

[Hawkeye]

My county ended up being the bullseye for this system.  I finished with a real nice 2.06".  That bumps my October total to 3.29".  I had 0.00" eight days ago.  More rain will fall on Halloween.

[OKwx2k4]

Nice to hear a soaking rain outside finally. High of 56° today - cloudy pretty much the entire day.

 

On the topic of El Niño autumn's. I looked back at October of 1997, it started off really warm (first 9 days here well above normal) and then then it backed to near normal with some good cold shots. Seen quite a bit of mild days this month and not just concentrated at one time either. November looks to start off milder than 1997 right now.

Got a feeling a lot will be learned from having a warm Pacific from the equator to Alaska.

Interesting case study based on this post mentioning 1997 this morning. Had to finally break down and analyze the daily surface maps from September-November 1997. At 500 mb, the pattern looked like a dream almost. Storm after storm rolling through. The mean was pretty much a central US trough with a ridge over the southwest. Also had some decent early season snows for the Rockies and even the Northeast I think. However, the problem lies with the fact that all the cold fronts early that year were either "counterfeited" by their origin over the Pacific or they were recycled, stagnant air that never really had time to get really cold. These were also almost immediately followed by warm fronts from the Pacific as well. I have honestly never saw so many straight north to south oriented cold fronts in my life. Then in the same map, by the time a front would clear the Appalachian Mountains, there would be a massive warm front right on its heels flooding the southern US with warm air. Rainfall helped keep the temperatures in check quite a bit but that year was literally a train wreck from the word go. The temperature readings and statistics from that autumn are very very misleading when taken by themselves. I learned quite a bit this morning. Just thought I'd share. :-)

[Tom]

With this deepening storm and the strong winds kicking in, I'm sure we will be seeing bare tree's showing up this weekend.

 

Light snow falling just west of Duluth, MN...

 

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USMN0208

[james1976]

This is a heck of a system. I can't wait til it comes back around in the LRC. We had widespread rains of 1-2" and now the cold side is coming in. Windy with falling temps. Snow showers breaking out in S. Dakota are heading straight for my area! I think I have a chance at seeing my first flakes tonight

[Tom]

Like Money said, it can snow when surface temps are more than a few degrees above Freezing...Current conditions in Sherman, SD...

 

28 Oct 2015, 1:56 PM

http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/40_clear/wx_77.png
Light Snow

38°F

Feels Like

28°F

• Humidity: 60%
• Wind Speed: 20mph
• Wind Direction: 310°
• Dew Point: 25°
• Visibility: 9mi

 

 

 

That wintry precip is heading your way James!

[OKwx2k4]

Good luck James! Enjoy the snow!

[Tom]

Waters are cooling significantly south of the Aleutians, warming up near the NW NAMER coastline.  By the way, isn't it rather interesting that the models are now showing that NE PAC ridge (-EPO) or Gulf of Alaska HP next week???  Right where the waters are warming, HP is going to set up over those waters amplifying the whole weather pattern down stream.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015102812/gfs_z500a_namer_26.png

 

 

 

12z Euro keeps a sharp temperature gradient by Wednesday cutting right through N KS/C IA/C WI.  Some parts of NE next Wed/Thu could be hard pressed getting out of the 30's with precip falling.

[OKwx2k4]

I'll take that pattern, anything to keep the darn Pacific air out of here! I'm hoping we can keep a -EPO around and then get the AO to crash. That would be pretty awesome.

[Tom]

I'll take that pattern, anything to keep the darn Pacific air out of here! I'm hoping we can keep a -EPO around and then get the AO to crash. That would be pretty awesome.

That would be a golden pattern, kicking the strengthening jet farther south and allow the arctic air to works its magic along with juicy pacific systems.

[ingyball]

Like Money said, it can snow when surface temps are more than a few degrees above Freezing...Current conditions in Sherman, SD...

 

28 Oct 2015, 1:56 PM

http://images.intellicast.com/App_Images/40_clear/wx_77.png

Light Snow

38°F

Feels Like

28°F

• Humidity: 60%
• Wind Speed: 20mph
• Wind Direction: 310°
• Dew Point: 25°
• Visibility: 9mi

 

 

 

That wintry precip is heading your way James!

I once got a foot of snow in North Texas with the temp never getting below 34 degrees because of a cold core low.

[james1976]

Currently 38 and light sleet IMBY! I think a few flakes are mixed in as well. It literally started as I pulled into the driveway
I also received 1.35" of rain from this system.

[james1976]

DMX mentioning a lightning strike in SD:
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY  
LOOKED...SHOWERY AND INDEED WITH THE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN EASTERN  
SOUTH DAKOTA...THERE WAS A LIGHTNING STRIKE NOTED SOUTH OF  
ABERDEEN.  

[james1976]

Definitely quite a dynamic system.
DMX:
TONIGHT...H850/H700 WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE  
STORM SYSTEM IN A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD TOUCH OFF SOME  
LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA.  
INITIALLY...THERE IS A POCKET OF VERY COLD...-15 DEG C AIR AT H7  
OVER NORTHWEST IOWA AND -4 DEG C AT H85...LEADING TO MORE FLURRIES  
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT. DO NOT MENTION  
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE WARM GROUND...WILL NEED TO WATCH IN THE FAR  
NORTH THOUGH WHERE THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE BETTER.

[Geos]

When the there is a thin boundary layer of above freezing temps you can see snow easily. Seen snow flakes flying at 40° personally before.

 

Nasty outside, but have been looking forward to it. 1.00" of rain exactly from this system.

Rain and snow showers in the Kenosha grids for tonight into the morning. WC around 30° at this hour.

 

Lost a lot of leaves/color today.

[OKwx2k4]

If I've read correctly, we are near (slightly above) last year and only behind 1976 in SAI for anyone who follows that stuff. I think snowcover is a bit lower than that and pretty paltry on the North American side of the globe. I did notice on what snowcover map I have seen that it seems like western Siberia has performed much better than last year. I don't know what correlation that has if any. Just an observation.

[jaster220]

If I've read correctly, we are near (slightly above) last year and only behind 1976 in SAI for anyone who follows that stuff. I think snowcover is a bit lower than that and pretty paltry on the North American side of the globe. I did notice on what snowcover map I have seen that it seems like western Siberia has performed much better than last year. I don't know what correlation that has if any. Just an observation.

 

I posted the same thing yesterday. DT with a nice article on this: https://www.wxrisk.com/tracking-siberia-snow-cover/

 

My guess is at the meaning would be more widespread cold on our side of the globe when it comes, not just an isolated small region of cold. But, just my guess really

[Tom]

Current conditions...37F temp with wind chills in the upper 20's...just stepped out side, yup, def a shock to the system!  Rain/snow showers creeping across the border into McHenry.  Feels like late November out there.  Lot's of leaves on the ground now and seeing more bare trees.

 

Wausau, WI recieved 2" of snow...

 

 

 

Regarding the SAI, saw this Tweet from someone on that.  Keep in mind, snow cover is expected to expand from deep Siberian Low in the East over the next few days.

 

 

 

 

Here's a cool video showing 2 Pacific storm systems that went through Bombogenesis on Oct 24-26th.  Notice the locations of these storms...one just NE of Japan and the other south of the Aleutians.  The waters near Japan are much below normal now and cooling south of the Aleutians.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crASBecjdXw

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

Both of these systems left a "mark" in the Pacific I'd say!  I believe there is some definite feedback/forcing mechanism going on now as the seasonal transition continues.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

[james1976]

Glad to see WI got a couple inches! We had some flurries and sleet over here. First of the season.

[NEJeremy]

It was pretty interesting to see the surface obs at Minneapolis. Late last evening, they were in the mid 30's with snow as the core of the cold upper level low was over them. Then as it moved away, warmer air moved back in and the temps warmed all night long despite being behind the storm system. Temps warmed into the 40s overnight. Not too often that you see temps warming overnight behind such a strong low pressure system!

[Tom]

As arctic temps continue to crash, sea ice in the arctic is near 10 year highs!

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png

 

 

In mid September, arctic sea ice began to rapidly form as seen from the map above.