2015-2016 Winter Outlook

[Tom]

November torched. Currently plus nine. Going to end arond plus 6.5

Indeed it did, never doubted the northern Plains/Lakes/Midwest to torch.  I expected from I-80 on north to be above normal...anywhere south of that would trend colder by months end.

 

So far, the month is trending that way and by months end the southern half of the central states will end up below normal with the coming stormy holiday week.

[OKwx2k4]

That's correct Tom. Even the most conservative models have zero warm teleconnections. Couple that with a pretty decent chance of a fairly large AO drop in the next month, Aleutian low developing then retrograding west and you have a pretty good idea what's coming. Not at all interested in ripping anyone but we all know what the CFS is. Just like I know what the NASA model is. CFS will have its act together by the 11th of December and the NASA is likely too cold.

[Tom]

That's correct Tom. Even the most conservative models have zero warm teleconnections. Couple that with a pretty decent chance of a fairly large AO drop in the next month, Aleutian low developing then retrograding west and you have a pretty good idea what's coming. Not at all interested in ripping anyone but we all know what the CFS is. Just like I know what the NASA model is. CFS will have its act together by the 11th of December and the NASA is likely too cold.

I think by using some simple long range forecasting tools (East Asian/Typhoon Rule) which have been great thus far, far better than what the models forecast 7+ days out, we can get a good idea of where the pattern is heading.  I pointed out in mid November what I was seeing in Eurasia and how it could effect us down stream 2-3 weeks out and it has performed pretty well.  Notice what happens Day 3-9, then Day 10-15 and you will see why both of us agree mid December could start turning the corner.

 

Day 3...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015112306/gfs-ens_z500a_wpac_13.png

 

Day 9...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015112306/gfs-ens_z500a_wpac_37.png

 

 

Day 12...the evolution of this pattern would suggest that somewhere after Dec 5th we should see hemispheric blocking setting up over North America as the pattern in Eurasia gets blocked up first.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015112306/gfs-ens_z500a_wpac_45.png

[gosaints]

That's correct Tom. Even the most conservative models have zero warm teleconnections. Couple that with a pretty decent chance of a fairly large AO drop in the next month, Aleutian low developing then retrograding west and you have a pretty good idea what's coming. Not at all interested in ripping anyone but we all know what the CFS is. Just like I know what the NASA model is. CFS will have its act together by the 11th of December and the NASA is likely too cold.

You are the only one in the subforum that I feel has any chance of being below normal in december

[GDR]

[OKwx2k4]

I definitely agree Tom. The progression here is great for what we have been saying since around the first part of November. Then as things work their way along we see the southern storm track open up for lots of traffic with -8c departures locked in over the central US. These will moderate by mid-month of course but the AO should be split by then and we'll be looking at another cold shot with storms underneath by the latter weeks of December. Should be pretty much full on game time for my area by then. :-)

 

@gosaints, I think I will have the greatest negative departures of everyone because I'm essentially in left field compared to where most of you guys live but by no means do I think I'm the only one with a chance at being below normal. That ridge showing up over western Canada will retrograde at some point. Although it is one heck of a ridge showing up for an ensemble mean.

[james1976]

I saw this video on facebook and couldn't help but to share. It's hilarious (to me anyway).   
https://www.facebook.com/keeptheheat/videos/10153630774857069/

[Maxim]

long range GFS looks like a disaster

[gosaints]

Let's do a case test on this one...I remember in early November it had a torch for the central states to close out November and primarily the west coast cold.  Missed that one.

 

Now, let's see how it performs again for the Week 3 & 4 period...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151122.z500.gif

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20151122.NAsfcT.gif

 

 

 

I'm just as curious as you are to see how well it performs Week 3 & 4 when it's own teleconnections don't agree to what the american model is advertising temp wise.

Yep lets case test the GFS the next time it depicts epic cold post hour 240 and see how it does as well.  CFS is obviously not a perfect model.  Its monthly forecast for November was pretty spot on by the last week of October.

[gosaints]

First signs of the blob starting to take a beating?

[Tom]

Here is Dr.Judah Cohen's Dec-Feb forecast for Temps...he uses's the Siberian Snow Cover Theory to make his forecasts...it's interesting to point out that the main trough's are centered in the SW and near the Lakes.  If we were to use this forecast, along with this year's LRC....you can get a good idea of where the Winter is heading.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/imrs.png

[ingyball]

Since I'm going to be in Both Texas and Ohio for the winter, I like this map. 

[Tom]

For those who follow Dr. Judah Cohen, here is a detailed write-up on his current thoughts and predictions of where the Arctic Oscillation is heading.  Of note, he is expecting temps to be generally above normal over the next 2 weeks across the lower 48, although, some modified arctic air can be expected.  He is paying close attention towards the energy transfer from the troposphere into the stratosphere.  He makes some key points and what to look out for as we head deeper into December.  A couple days ago, I posted some GFS 30mb maps that were showing predicted warming over the next 2 weeks. This will be a crucial component if we can weaken the PV over the next couple weeks to negate the current +AO pattern.

 

The new JMA Weeklies issued today showed signs of this potential decline in the AO that Dr. Cohen mentioned in his article below.

 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[Geos]

The Blob is hanging on still.

 

[gosaints]

The Blob is hanging on still.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

Oh ya gonna take awhile for it to go.away. Not as impressive as it was

[Tom]

It'll be interesting to see how much the Aleutian Low retrogrades back farther west over the coming weeks.  In November, it was centered in the GOA and now I'm seeing the trough in the means backing farther west.  In a perfect world, if it can center itself south of the Aleutians and the AO even head toward neutral, that would be a nice stormy/colder pattern heading into mid December.

[james1976]

Is the LRC set? Shouldn't cycle 2 be starting soon?

[Tom]

Is the LRC set? Shouldn't cycle 2 be starting soon?

Yup, we prob are currently in cycle #2 but Gary Lezak hasn't mentioned yet what he thinks the cycle length will be.

[westMJim]

First off I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.

I came across this link to the web site there is some very good weather history while most of it is about Toledo it gives you an idea of some of the bigger non lake event snow storms in the Great Lakes area. Just in case you have not see it enjoy

 

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/

[Tom]

First off I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.

I came across this link to the web site there is some very good weather history while most of it is about Toledo it gives you an idea of some of the bigger non lake event snow storms in the Great Lakes area. Just in case you have not see it enjoy

 

http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/

Couple of those '79 Blizzards look very similar to the storms that have been targeting the Plains/Lakes region in this year's LRC pattern.  Going forward, the Euro Weeklies/Control are sniffing out some monster storms mid December in these same areas.  Fun times ahead.

[Snowshoe]

Interesting read. Lots of uncertainty as one would guess.

 

For those who follow Dr. Judah Cohen, here is a detailed write-up on his current thoughts and predictions of where the Arctic Oscillation is heading.  Of note, he is expecting temps to be generally above normal over the next 2 weeks across the lower 48, although, some modified arctic air can be expected.  He is paying close attention towards the energy transfer from the troposphere into the stratosphere.  He makes some key points and what to look out for as we head deeper into December.  A couple days ago, I posted some GFS 30mb maps that were showing predicted warming over the next 2 weeks. This will be a crucial component if we can weaken the PV over the next couple weeks to negate the current +AO pattern.

 

The new JMA Weeklies issued today showed signs of this potential decline in the AO that Dr. Cohen mentioned in his article below.

 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

[jaster220]

Couple of those '79 Blizzards look very similar to the storms that have been targeting the Plains/Lakes region in this year's LRC pattern.  Going forward, the Euro Weeklies/Control are sniffing out some monster storms mid December in these same areas.  Fun times ahead.

 

Did you mean those (79) blizzards, or blizzards back in 1979? Cuz, tbh, I'm not seeing either when I scroll his site.

[Tom]

Did you mean those (79) blizzards, or blizzards back in 1979? Cuz, tbh, I'm not seeing either when I scroll his site.

Click on the Link, then scroll down to the "Snowstorm Archives", click on Heavy Snow ( 18") Events...that'll take you to the next page which you will then click on the first 2 storms in the 1979 list...hope this helps...classic Plains/Lakes storm systems like we are seeing this season.

[Geos]

CanSIPS outlook for January. Temps

 

[jaster220]

CanSIPS outlook for January. Temps

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/cansips/2015120100/cansips_T2ma_namer_1.png

 

OK bullseye!

[gosaints]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201601.gif

[GDR]

[gosaints]

Look at that brown

LOL if the CANsips is gonna get played so is the CFS

[OKwx2k4]

OK bullseye!

My state for the win in the cold departures.

[Maxim]

lol weenies

[Maxim]

also, CFS has been much more accurate than the CanSIPS

[james1976]

GFS wayyyyy warm late next week followed by active weather but not very organized this run. If it does get active I hope we have some cold air around.

[Maxim]

you think the GFS is warm? Take a look at 12z EURO 

[WBadgersW]

My gut is telling me that this winter will be warm and rainy. Hopefully my gut is wrong, but we will see.

[GDR]

[GDR]

[Geos]

Look at that brown

 

Doesn't matter - It can still snow with brown departures.

It won't be a winter for extended periods of snow cover though.

[OKwx2k4]

For the northeastern 1/4 to 1/3 or so of the country, winter is dead on arrival. The rest of us are going to have a blast. Southern California is going to be high and dry in this "typical" El Niño though. Isn't that strange. Lol. Also, several of the CFS parameters for negative precip departures (Eastern Oklahoma/NW Arkansas) will be completely busted by the 20th of December.

[Tom]

Here is the Atmospheric and Environmental Research's take on Dec-Feb Temp Outlook for the winter season.  This is the organization Dr. Judah Cohen works for.

[jaster220]

Here is the Atmospheric and Environmental Research's take on Dec-Feb Temp Outlook for the winter season.  This is the organization Dr. Judah Cohen works for.

 

Is there any way to extend it through March? Thinking it would show the cold spread further west. That's what I'm going with (greater departures for SWMI) if you throw March into the mix.