2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread

[Minny_Weather]

51 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Seems like the cone shifted a little west again. I'm on the edge of the cone agan.

 

 

The farther west it goes, the more nasty things get for the populated areas of SoCal. 

I grew up in hurricane country, it is much better (or worse if you love severe weather) to be on the west side of a hurricane than the east side. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Quick cooldown this evening

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Thunder98 said:

 

Looking wet

[Thunder98]

Under a deep marine layer now.  Haven't seen this in a while.

[Thunder98]

This is the WY rain amounts so far for Orcutt. Santa Barbara County uses September 1st-August 31st for its Water Year.

June brought some thundery surprise and August has already brought some tropical activity last week and now even more is coming!

MO | Act rainfall | Avg rainfall | % of avg
Sept: 2.17" | 0.16" | 1365%
Oct: 0.03" | 0.58" | 5%
Nov: 1.03" | 1.32" | 78%
Dec: 5.61" | 2.17" | 256%
Jan: 7.81" | 2.69" | 290%
Feb: 3.99" | 2.70" | 148%
Mar: 6.43" | 2.45" | 262%
Apr: 0" | 1.08" | 0%
May: 0.35" | 0.26" | 135%
Jun: 0.40" | 0.04" | 1000%
Jul: 0" | 0.02" | 0%
*Aug: 0.39" | 0.03" | 1300%

*Overall total: 28.21"

Water Year Avg is 13.49"

That is at 209% of avg for the WY!

[Thunder98]

GFS has me getting soaked!

 

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

11 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Reacts are still BROKEN!

I wonder what caused the Reacts to stop working? Possibly a software upgrade?

[roadtonowhere08]

15 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

I wonder what caused the Reacts to stop working? Possibly a software upgrade?

When in doubt, blame it on Marine Layer 

[Minny_Weather]

53 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

When in doubt, blame it on Marine Layer 

The silver lining to this is that he's no longer able to react to posts, either.

[Minny_Weather]

Category 4!

[Reg]

Becoming very likely that all of us in the SoCal valleys are, if you'll excuse my language, going to get into some sh*t real soon. I'm more concerned about potentially damaging winds rather than flooding rains, although the latter is more likely.

[Reg]

Never seen that before.

[Reg]

8 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

GFS has me getting soaked!

 

 

Every model run has my area under orange now at minimum. I'm getting hosed by this thing no matter what.

[Thunder98]

Don’t see this forecast everyday here!
 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Marine layer is back this morning. 

[Reg]

2 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Marine layer is back this morning. 

At least this thread is getting the activity you wanted.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday night.

[Reg]

9 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday night.

Most of us here in this thread are going to get hammered by this thing. NWS shows slightly higher rainfall for my area than yours, though. Only Thunder98 might avoid getting hit by the brunt of it.

[Minny_Weather]

It's speeding up. This would mean less rainfall, but stronger wind.

[Minny_Weather]

Tropical Storm Watch issued by the NHC:

Quote

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Riverside
    - San Bernardino
    - Ontario
    - Rancho Cucamonga
    - Temecula

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Sunday afternoon
          until early Monday morning

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
      to 57 mph
        - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
          force.
        - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
          underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
        - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
          becomes hazardous.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
          mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
        - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
          uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
          are shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley
          locations that don`t typically experience strong winds.
          Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
        - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
          urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
          conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
        - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher
          amounts

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
      flooding rain
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
          major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
          likely.
        - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
          if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
        - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
          action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos,
          and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
          destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
          increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides.
          Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
          moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
          become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
          weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

    - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
      UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
      tornadoes
        - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
          few tornadoes.
        - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
          tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
          hazardous weather arrives.
        - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
          quickly.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
        - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
          power and communications disruptions.
        - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
          chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
          overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
          shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
          off roads, and boats pulled from moorings.

 

[Minny_Weather]

Completely absurd.

[Reg]

6 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Tropical Storm Watch issued by the NHC:

That's you and me. Prepare for the power to go out.

[Reg]

18 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

Completely absurd.

Screencapped. One for the books if it materializes.

I can understand the NWS erring on the side of caution. This event may produce casualties.

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Reg said:

That's you and me. Prepare for the power to go out.

I think this is more of a flood threat than a wind threat for pretty much everyone out here. I grew up in hurricane country, with tropical storms, rain is most definitely the dominant threat. 

[Reg]

8 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

I think this is more of a flood threat than a wind threat for pretty much everyone out here. I grew up in hurricane country, with tropical storms, rain is most definitely the dominant threat. 

Oh yeah I get that for sure. I find it interesting that the NWS chose to include a tornado threat, though. Never see them do that around these parts, even if they are just being cautious.

Either way, even with just floods, our power is likely to get knocked out.

[Minny_Weather]

30 minutes ago, Reg said:

Oh yeah I get that for sure. I find it interesting that the NWS chose to include a tornado threat, though. Never see them do that around these parts, even if they are just being cautious.

Either way, even with just floods, our power is likely to get knocked out.

Every tropical system carries an inherent tornado threat with it.

The power at my house usually holds strong during the worst Santa Ana winds, so I'm hoping it should be fine here.

[Minny_Weather]

They issued a whole new AFD

For this weekend, all eyes turn to Hurricane Hilary. Hilary will

accelerate northward this weekend and weaken, likely to tropical

storm strength (39-73 mph), by the time it makes its closest 

approach to Southern California sometime Sunday afternoon into 

Monday morning. Conditions will begin to deteriorate on Saturday

as rain bands begin to move into the mountains and deserts,

reaching areas west of the mountains Saturday evening into Sunday.

These rain bands will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall

and gusty winds. Another hazard to keep in mind is brief spin-ups

and tornadoes embedded within the bands- these tend to be short-

lived but can still cause damage.

 

On Sunday, the core of Hilary will continue its northward trek

near the central Baja California Peninsula, reaching Southern

California Sunday night into Monday morning. It is important to

remember not to focus only on the track of the center of this

large and powerful storm- IMPACTS CAN AND DO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM

THE CENTER OF THE STORM, AND OCCUR WELL BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE

STORM REACHES THE REGION.

 

RAIN: Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall looks to develop on 

Sunday, with the most impactful and torrential rainfall occurring 

Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Please see the Hydrology 

section below for additional information on rain impacts with 

Hilary.

 

WIND: Winds look to increase during the day on Sunday and peak 

Sunday evening through Monday morning across Southern California. 

The strongest winds will generally occur across the mountains and 

the coastal mountain slopes, as well as near the center of Hilary,

wherever the center treks over land/water. Tropical storm-force 

winds (39-73 mph) will be possible across our entire warning area

covering far southwest California, so any precautions that need to

be taken to protect again strong winds should be rushed to 

completion today and tomorrow.

 

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible along rain bands

associated with Hilary. The Storm Prediction Center has

highlighted Southern California in a Marginal Risk for severe

thunderstorms on Sunday, mainly for the risk of isolated

tornadoes and severe wind gusts. We will continue to monitor this

risk in the coming days as rain bands move closer.

 

While tropical systems have impacted Southern California before,

this is the first time a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued by

the National Hurricane Center/the National Weather Service in

Southern California. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a

"High Risk" on their Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the desert

slopes (east-facing) and the lower deserts, the first that has

been issued for those areas. We are talking about the potential

for a highly impactful event, especially due to the risk of rare

and life-threatening flash flooding across the mountains and

deserts, with flash flooding potentially extending towards the

coast and valleys as well. Now is the time to prepare, folks.

Please make sure you are monitoring the latest forecasts from

official sources (the National Hurricane Center and the National

Weather Service), and have multiple ways to receive warnings in

the coming days.

 

Hilary is expected to weaken further Monday afternoon and evening

as it continues to move northward. Rainfall and wind impacts are

expected to peak overnight Sunday through Monday morning, slowly

tapering off through Monday afternoon and evening. Enough moisture

will stick around to keep mentionable rain chances through Monday

night across the coast and valleys. Winds aloft look to remain out

of the southeast through the end of next week, leading to daily

chances for showers and storms in the mountains and deserts. 

Highs will slowly warm through the middle of next week, but are 

expected to remain below seasonal averages through the forecast 

period.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM keeps hurricane-force winds until just about the CA border.

NHC's 12pm advisory pretty much reflects the overall westward shift in the track

Ultimately, cold water is less damaging to a hurricane than dry land, so I would not be surprised to see this remain a hurricane until shortly before the border if this track holds. Strongest wind will still remain east of the center, over the desert.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro is faster and wetter with the storm but also kills its tropical characteristics as it gets into SoCal.

[roadtonowhere08]

17 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

The silver lining to this is that he's no longer able to react to posts, either.

Not a fan of the puking reaction? 

[roadtonowhere08]

Sunday is looking to be a wild day!  If Hilary's current track holds, deserts are going to have some serious flooding.  If it tracks westward, LA/Orange County will be in some big trouble.

[Anti Marine Layer]

19 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

The silver lining to this is that he's no longer able to react to posts, either.

Neither can Jesse

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

Not a fan of the puking reaction? 

[roadtonowhere08]

2 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

If any mod sees this, I dare you to make this Marine Layer's avatar 

[roadtonowhere08]

This is going to be a historic flooding event for the desert SW:

[Reg]

10 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

NAM keeps hurricane-force winds until just about the CA border.

NHC's 12pm advisory pretty much reflects the overall westward shift in the track

Ultimately, cold water is less damaging to a hurricane than dry land, so I would not be surprised to see this remain a hurricane until shortly before the border if this track holds. Strongest wind will still remain east of the center, over the desert.

Most current projections have the storm’s center going literally right over me in the Temecula Valley, which potentially means over you in Riverside as well. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Tropical storm warning. First one ever.

[Thunder98]

If only this storm was 150 miles more west.

[Reg]

This has to be an error.

Edit: I see, the colors are very close but not the same. And the legend doesn't show our shade of dark red that is actually a Tropical Storm Warning, not a Hurricane Warning (that's south of the border offshore).

[SpaceRace22]

Wow, I can't believe the NWS hasn't realized yet that the storm is going to get eaten up by dry air and dissipate before getting up here. They are going to look real silly when no moisture makes it up here.