Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 51 minutes ago, Thunder98 said: Seems like the cone shifted a little west again. I'm on the edge of the cone agan. The farther west it goes, the more nasty things get for the populated areas of SoCal. I grew up in hurricane country, it is much better (or worse if you love severe weather) to be on the west side of a hurricane than the east side. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Quick cooldown this evening Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Thunder98 said: Looking wet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 18, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Under a deep marine layer now. Haven't seen this in a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 18, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 This is the WY rain amounts so far for Orcutt. Santa Barbara County uses September 1st-August 31st for its Water Year. June brought some thundery surprise and August has already brought some tropical activity last week and now even more is coming! MO | Act rainfall | Avg rainfall | % of avg Sept: 2.17" | 0.16" | 1365% Oct: 0.03" | 0.58" | 5% Nov: 1.03" | 1.32" | 78% Dec: 5.61" | 2.17" | 256% Jan: 7.81" | 2.69" | 290% Feb: 3.99" | 2.70" | 148% Mar: 6.43" | 2.45" | 262% Apr: 0" | 1.08" | 0% May: 0.35" | 0.26" | 135% Jun: 0.40" | 0.04" | 1000% Jul: 0" | 0.02" | 0% *Aug: 0.39" | 0.03" | 1300% *Overall total: 28.21" Water Year Avg is 13.49" That is at 209% of avg for the WY! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 18, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 GFS has me getting soaked! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 11 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said: Reacts are still BROKEN! I wonder what caused the Reacts to stop working? Possibly a software upgrade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 15 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said: I wonder what caused the Reacts to stop working? Possibly a software upgrade? When in doubt, blame it on Marine Layer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 53 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said: When in doubt, blame it on Marine Layer The silver lining to this is that he's no longer able to react to posts, either. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Category 4! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Becoming very likely that all of us in the SoCal valleys are, if you'll excuse my language, going to get into some sh*t real soon. I'm more concerned about potentially damaging winds rather than flooding rains, although the latter is more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Never seen that before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 8 hours ago, Thunder98 said: GFS has me getting soaked! Every model run has my area under orange now at minimum. I'm getting hosed by this thing no matter what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 18, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Don’t see this forecast everyday here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Marine layer is back this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said: Marine layer is back this morning. At least this thread is getting the activity you wanted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 9 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said: Tropical storm conditions possible on Sunday night. Most of us here in this thread are going to get hammered by this thing. NWS shows slightly higher rainfall for my area than yours, though. Only Thunder98 might avoid getting hit by the brunt of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 It's speeding up. This would mean less rainfall, but stronger wind. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Tropical Storm Watch issued by the NHC: Quote ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Riverside - San Bernardino - Ontario - Rancho Cucamonga - Temecula * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Sunday afternoon until early Monday morning - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39 to 57 mph - PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm force. - PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be underway. Prepare for limited wind damage. - ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind becomes hazardous. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley locations that don`t typically experience strong winds. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * FLOODING RAIN - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect - Peak Rainfall Amounts: 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major flooding rain - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are likely. - PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding. - ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas, destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out. * TORNADO - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: - Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few tornadoes - PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a few tornadoes. - PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather arrives. - ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and boats pulled from moorings. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Completely absurd. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: Tropical Storm Watch issued by the NHC: That's you and me. Prepare for the power to go out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 18 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: Completely absurd. Screencapped. One for the books if it materializes. I can understand the NWS erring on the side of caution. This event may produce casualties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Reg said: That's you and me. Prepare for the power to go out. I think this is more of a flood threat than a wind threat for pretty much everyone out here. I grew up in hurricane country, with tropical storms, rain is most definitely the dominant threat. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: I think this is more of a flood threat than a wind threat for pretty much everyone out here. I grew up in hurricane country, with tropical storms, rain is most definitely the dominant threat. Oh yeah I get that for sure. I find it interesting that the NWS chose to include a tornado threat, though. Never see them do that around these parts, even if they are just being cautious. Either way, even with just floods, our power is likely to get knocked out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 30 minutes ago, Reg said: Oh yeah I get that for sure. I find it interesting that the NWS chose to include a tornado threat, though. Never see them do that around these parts, even if they are just being cautious. Either way, even with just floods, our power is likely to get knocked out. Every tropical system carries an inherent tornado threat with it. The power at my house usually holds strong during the worst Santa Ana winds, so I'm hoping it should be fine here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 They issued a whole new AFD For this weekend, all eyes turn to Hurricane Hilary. Hilary will accelerate northward this weekend and weaken, likely to tropical storm strength (39-73 mph), by the time it makes its closest approach to Southern California sometime Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Conditions will begin to deteriorate on Saturday as rain bands begin to move into the mountains and deserts, reaching areas west of the mountains Saturday evening into Sunday. These rain bands will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Another hazard to keep in mind is brief spin-ups and tornadoes embedded within the bands- these tend to be short- lived but can still cause damage. On Sunday, the core of Hilary will continue its northward trek near the central Baja California Peninsula, reaching Southern California Sunday night into Monday morning. It is important to remember not to focus only on the track of the center of this large and powerful storm- IMPACTS CAN AND DO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE STORM, AND OCCUR WELL BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE STORM REACHES THE REGION. RAIN: Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall looks to develop on Sunday, with the most impactful and torrential rainfall occurring Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Please see the Hydrology section below for additional information on rain impacts with Hilary. WIND: Winds look to increase during the day on Sunday and peak Sunday evening through Monday morning across Southern California. The strongest winds will generally occur across the mountains and the coastal mountain slopes, as well as near the center of Hilary, wherever the center treks over land/water. Tropical storm-force winds (39-73 mph) will be possible across our entire warning area covering far southwest California, so any precautions that need to be taken to protect again strong winds should be rushed to completion today and tomorrow. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes will be possible along rain bands associated with Hilary. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Southern California in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Sunday, mainly for the risk of isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts. We will continue to monitor this risk in the coming days as rain bands move closer. While tropical systems have impacted Southern California before, this is the first time a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued by the National Hurricane Center/the National Weather Service in Southern California. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a "High Risk" on their Excessive Rainfall Outlook for the desert slopes (east-facing) and the lower deserts, the first that has been issued for those areas. We are talking about the potential for a highly impactful event, especially due to the risk of rare and life-threatening flash flooding across the mountains and deserts, with flash flooding potentially extending towards the coast and valleys as well. Now is the time to prepare, folks. Please make sure you are monitoring the latest forecasts from official sources (the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service), and have multiple ways to receive warnings in the coming days. Hilary is expected to weaken further Monday afternoon and evening as it continues to move northward. Rainfall and wind impacts are expected to peak overnight Sunday through Monday morning, slowly tapering off through Monday afternoon and evening. Enough moisture will stick around to keep mentionable rain chances through Monday night across the coast and valleys. Winds aloft look to remain out of the southeast through the end of next week, leading to daily chances for showers and storms in the mountains and deserts. Highs will slowly warm through the middle of next week, but are expected to remain below seasonal averages through the forecast period. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 NAM keeps hurricane-force winds until just about the CA border. NHC's 12pm advisory pretty much reflects the overall westward shift in the track Ultimately, cold water is less damaging to a hurricane than dry land, so I would not be surprised to see this remain a hurricane until shortly before the border if this track holds. Strongest wind will still remain east of the center, over the desert. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Euro is faster and wetter with the storm but also kills its tropical characteristics as it gets into SoCal. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 17 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: The silver lining to this is that he's no longer able to react to posts, either. Not a fan of the puking reaction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted August 18, 2023 Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Sunday is looking to be a wild day! If Hilary's current track holds, deserts are going to have some serious flooding. If it tracks westward, LA/Orange County will be in some big trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 19, 2023 Report Share Posted August 19, 2023 19 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: The silver lining to this is that he's no longer able to react to posts, either. Neither can Jesse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 19, 2023 Report Share Posted August 19, 2023 2 hours ago, roadtonowhere08 said: Not a fan of the puking reaction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted August 19, 2023 Report Share Posted August 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said: If any mod sees this, I dare you to make this Marine Layer's avatar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted August 19, 2023 Report Share Posted August 19, 2023 This is going to be a historic flooding event for the desert SW: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 19, 2023 Report Share Posted August 19, 2023 10 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: NAM keeps hurricane-force winds until just about the CA border. NHC's 12pm advisory pretty much reflects the overall westward shift in the track Ultimately, cold water is less damaging to a hurricane than dry land, so I would not be surprised to see this remain a hurricane until shortly before the border if this track holds. Strongest wind will still remain east of the center, over the desert. Most current projections have the storm’s center going literally right over me in the Temecula Valley, which potentially means over you in Riverside as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 19, 2023 Report Share Posted August 19, 2023 Tropical storm warning. First one ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 19, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 19, 2023 If only this storm was 150 miles more west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 19, 2023 Report Share Posted August 19, 2023 This has to be an error. Edit: I see, the colors are very close but not the same. And the legend doesn't show our shade of dark red that is actually a Tropical Storm Warning, not a Hurricane Warning (that's south of the border offshore). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted August 19, 2023 Report Share Posted August 19, 2023 Wow, I can't believe the NWS hasn't realized yet that the storm is going to get eaten up by dry air and dissipate before getting up here. They are going to look real silly when no moisture makes it up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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