2022-2023 California and Southwest Weather Thread

[Anti Marine Layer]

There are 3 4's in our sunset time today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Subtropical jet is on the way. Same one we were dominated by last winter and spring.

[Thunder98]

The storms looking really good this week! Could see 3 inches of rain by friday as of now.

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

[Anti Marine Layer]

Got COVID from the idiot at the Cox store who came in when he was sick.

Not too bad so far. Had a fever last night and a sore throat, which is a little better now, but I still am wiped out.

[Thunder98]

16 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Got COVID from the idiot at the Cox store who came in when he was sick.

Not too bad so far. Had a fever last night and a sore throat, which is a little better now, but I still am wiped out.

Get well soon!

[Thunder98]

Very wet week ahead.

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Thick clouds on the move.

[Anti Marine Layer]

@Reg may have been banned 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

4:45 PM for today's sunset.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Leaves will continue to fall as the sun angles begin to rise.

[Dan the Weatherman]

14 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

@Reg may have been banned 

 

I doubt that, as he hasn't posted anything I am aware of that is out of line with forum rules. He has been posting on Weather West, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was raining when I came through LAX last night. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

It rained last night 

[Anti Marine Layer]

12 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

I doubt that, as he hasn't posted anything I am aware of that is out of line with forum rules. He has been posting on Weather West, though.

His last post was October 11, 4 days after the Israel Hamas war started. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The showery weather continues. 

[Thunder98]

For the 1st storm, Orcutt received 0.43". Better than I expected

[Anti Marine Layer]

El Nino is here. Should get a soaking soon.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Winter Solstice arrives tomorrow and days begin to get longer. Sorry for those who like it dark all the time.

Time and Date

12/20/2023 11:25:23 AM

Solar Declination

23.43 S

Equation of Time

2.39

Minutes for Solar Declination to change by .01

1375.62

Minutes for Equation of Time to change by .01

29.12

[Anti Marine Layer]

We're basically down to 3 people here, ordered by post frequency.

@Anti Marine Layer

@Thunder98

@Dan the Weatherman

Since our weather is so boring and even when it gets exciting there's still not enough people, I'll have to learn to post here without falling into the temptation to go into the Politics Thread.

Hoping for a wild El Nino with lots of rain, but lots of nice days in between storms.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Never to be seen again

@Pn1ct0g3n

@Reg

@WhoElseDidIMiss

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

New 2024-2025 thread coming in 12 days.

[roadtonowhere08]

7 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

We're basically down to 3 people here, ordered by post frequency.

@Anti Marine Layer

@Thunder98

@Dan the Weatherman

Since our weather is so boring and even when it gets exciting there's still not enough people, I'll have to learn to post here without falling into the temptation to go into the Politics Thread.

Hoping for a wild El Nino with lots of rain, but lots of nice days in between storms.

Haha!!

So Cal has some boring a** weather!  Again, the rain totals are going down, down, down each time I check.

Bleh!!!

[Anti Marine Layer]

11 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

Haha!!

So Cal has some boring a** weather!  Again, the rain totals are going down, down, down each time I check.

Bleh!!!

Climate change ain't making it any more interesting. 

Side note: Hot chick in Opzelura drug commercial.

[roadtonowhere08]

5 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Climate change ain't making it any more interesting. 

Side note: Hot chick in Opzelura drug commercial.

It will when the ARs come.  Warmer air = more water vapor capacity.

[Anti Marine Layer]

But I still DESPISE drug commercials. 

Pathetic totals so far

[Anti Marine Layer]

Windy

[AquariusRadar]

Roadnowhere08 said:

"It will when the ARs come.  Warmer air = more water vapor capacity"

I disagree. Air is warming faster than the ocean surface. This creates a stronger inversion with greater depth. The air/water vapor directly above the ocean surface is cooler now than the warmer air above. The water vapor can't rise as readily through the marine layer as in previous times. The general trend of reports, like those of AML, seem to be indicate a thicker and more frequent marine layer off the California coast. This idea is of course is totally opposed to the accepted wisdom of the IPCC that says greater rainfall can be expected as a result of warmer air. Doesn't mean we won't have ARs and flooding rain. That will still happen. But less frequently, IMHO. My weather science is rudimentary and subjective.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Big event should be tomorrow night thru Friday if the cutoff low does not take a woeful path.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Leaves are falling. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Still a waiting

Time and Date

12/20/2023 2:28:24 PM

Solar Declination

23.43 S

Equation of Time

2.33

Minutes for Solar Declination to change by .01

1520.33

Minutes for Equation of Time to change by .01

29.11

[Thunder98]

Lots of rain here. At about 1.65" since Monday

[Anti Marine Layer]

Center of the storm could hit right around the Winter Solstice at 7:27 PM tomorrow. Deep marine layer before that.

[Anti Marine Layer]

20 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Lots of rain here. At about 1.65" since Monday

Not much here so far

[roadtonowhere08]

3 hours ago, AquariusRadar said:

Roadnowhere08 said:

"It will when the ARs come.  Warmer air = more water vapor capacity"

I disagree. Air is warming faster than the ocean surface. This creates a stronger inversion with greater depth. The air/water vapor directly above the ocean surface is cooler now than the warmer air above. The water vapor can't rise as readily through the marine layer as in previous times. The general trend of reports, like those of AML, seem to be indicate a thicker and more frequent marine layer off the California coast. This idea is of course is totally opposed to the accepted wisdom of the IPCC that says greater rainfall can be expected as a result of warmer air. Doesn't mean we won't have ARs and flooding rain. That will still happen. But less frequently, IMHO. My weather science is rudimentary and subjective.

If the air is warmer due to increased heat retention by greenhouse gases, by definition more atmospheric heat will come into contact with the ocean surface through conduction.  Since air is a terrible conductor, it is not an obvious change, but over time it adds up.  Warmer water directly translates into increased evaporation due to increased molecular movement and subsequent polar bond breaking.

When that warmer, more humid air is tapped into by lows, California will absolutely see increased rainfall totals... when we get that rain.  Of course those ARs are subject to steering and such , so it is a crapshoot for us here, but that moisture has to go somewhere.  California has historically been boom and bust like that.  The extremes will get worse.  But when we get big rain, it will be more extreme.

There are tons of reports, stories, and studies showing that precipitation events are/will be worsened due to increased heat and moisture capacity.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It will still be fall tomorrow during daylight hours. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Here goes a rain shower

[Anti Marine Layer]

Raining pretty hard here, but looks like expected totals have been downgraded.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Time and Date

12/20/2023 6:57:30 PM

Solar Declination

23.43 S

Equation of Time

2.24

Minutes for Solar Declination to change by .01

1798.57

Minutes for Equation of Time to change by .01

29.09

[Anti Marine Layer]

Raining ... still 

or again