November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[PV=nRT]

Over Salem (SLE) this morning 850MB Temp -3.9, 1000-850MB Thickness 1301m, just a tad warm to bring any snow below 1000' as evidenced by some of the posts on here.  

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=92287

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy snow now being reported in Bend. 

[DareDuck]

I have about an inch so far and the flow hasn't turned favorably for us yet. Hopefully get a few more.

[DareDuck]

Heavy snow now being reported in Bend.

Interesting the airport shows .88" of precip so far, not sure if I've gotten that at my house and I'm 5 miles due west of the airport.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting the airport shows .88" of precip so far, not sure if I've gotten that at my house and I'm 5 miles due west of the airport.

.88?! That would be like 10 in of snow

[DareDuck]

.88?! That would be like 10 in of snow

Yea something must be off. It's showing that all within the past couple hours. We'd be covered in 18 inches right now. It's more like .09.

[stuffradio]

Don't look at hour 300 if you want snow or cold. It's beginning to look a lot like Spring.

 

Edit: The 12Z of the CMC GDPS shows OR coast will be in the mid to upper 50's at hour 192.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pendleton and Hermiston have been getting snow all morning while Meacham was rain. Just turned to snow up at 4,000 in the Blues. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Keep the updates from Bend coming DareDuck!

[Deweydog]

Pretty ninoish look to the long range.

[stuffradio]

Pretty ninoish look to the long range.

Are you going to Walgreens for Black Friday?

[High Desert Mat]

Been snowing in Redmond for past 3 hours. About an inch on the ground and still snowing. Once the low gets to my south it should really pick up at the right time of day too I suppose.

[High Desert Mat]

Been snowing in Redmond for past 3 hours. About an inch on the ground and still snowing. Once the low gets to my south it should really pick up at the right time of day too I suppose.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Central Oregon and the John Day-Ochocco Highlands just upgraded to a winter storm warning for 5-9" of snow. 

[Deweydog]

Are you going to Walgreens for Black Friday?

F'n A, Cotton.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Boise NWS just put up a winter storm warning for Harney County in SE Oregon. 

[ShawniganLake]

I don't really think there is much reason to be optimistic for any big pattern reset in the near future.  As stated above, the long range models are looking pretty Ninoish.  Seems to be a fairly strong signal for a +PNA index over the next couple of weeks.  MJO is forecast to be pretty inactive.  Phil says we are screwed for December, and as of right now, I believe he is probably going to be right. 

[TT-SEA]

I don't really think there is much reason to be optimistic for any big pattern reset in the near future. As stated above, the long range models are looking pretty Ninoish. Seems to be a fairly strong signal for a +PNA index over the next couple of weeks. MJO is forecast to be pretty inactive. Phil says we are screwed for December, and as of right now, I believe he is probably going to be right.

Probably. Jim did say the next chance would be in early January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow just started in Sisters. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

No question the indices are about as anti-Nino as possible. There is little doubt we will have a pattern reset and then some goodies. The high pressure anomalies in the NP guarantee it!

Nice... Do you have any thoughts on the upcoming inversion and the epic cold it will create for us.. I here it should be impressive. Thoughts?

[TT-SEA]

Nice... Do you have any thoughts on the upcoming inversion and the epic cold it will create for us.. I here it should be impressive. Thoughts?

 

 

No idea.   Those are tough to predict.   

 

I am hoping for enough mixing and a influx of dry air in the next 24 hours from the north to keep fog to a minimum.   

 

ECMWF shows fog becoming more entrenched over eastern WA later in the week but nothing much on this side of the mountains.    But even the ECMWF struggles with low-level inversions.

[DareDuck]

It's been coming down for the last couple hours. Up to 4" now and wouldn't be surprised with 4-5 more as the low gets into a more favorable position.

 

If I want a photo I have to have a url link?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's been coming down for the last couple hours. Up to 4" now and wouldn't be surprised with 4-5 more as the low gets into a more favorable position.

 

If I want a photo I have to have a url link?

 

If you have a pic posted on facebook or something you can just copy/paste. 

[TT-SEA]

If you have a pic posted on facebook or something you can just copy/paste. 

 

 

Did you get any more snow?   

[DareDuck]

If you have a pic posted on facebook or something you can just copy/paste.

Cool. I'm making a trip to the store and will take some pics while I'm out. Hope the roads aren't too bad.

[Front Ranger]

Saw plenty of hilltops covered in snow from I-5 between Salem and Roseburg. Probably 1200' and up.

[TT-SEA]

Saw plenty of hilltops covered in snow from I-5 between Salem and Roseburg. Probably 1200' and up.

 

Where are you going?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did you get any more snow?   

 

No. Currently 35 at Silver Falls, so probably 33/34 at my place. Maybe some flurries with the wrap around from the low.  I'm at work in Salem right now thought. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No. Currently 35 at Silver Falls, so probably 33/34 at my place. Maybe some flurries with the wrap around from the low.  I'm at work in Salem right now thought. 

 

I have 3.25" of snow on the year now. So pretty much the same already as last year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friends Dad just sent me these from Bend.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

My friends Dad just sent me these from Bend.

 

I hate bend and everyone that lives there!! So there!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have 3.25" of snow on the year now. So pretty much the same already as last year.

I hate you too!!

[TT-SEA]

My friends Dad just sent me these from Bend.

 

 

That is awesome.   They stole my snow!   

[stuffradio]

My friends Dad just sent me these from Bend.

 

This is a foreign substance to me. What is it?

[TT-SEA]

Cool. I'm making a trip to the store and will take some pics while I'm out. Hope the roads aren't too bad.

Just noticed that Bend is in a terrible spot for radar coverage. It's like being blind to what is coming there.

[Phil]

I don't really think there is much reason to be optimistic for any big pattern reset in the near future. As stated above, the long range models are looking pretty Ninoish. Seems to be a fairly strong signal for a +PNA index over the next couple of weeks. MJO is forecast to be pretty inactive. Phil says we are screwed for December, and as of right now, I believe he is probably going to be right.

I think everyone is screwed for December, lol. I'm done regurgitating my winter forecast in here, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just noticed that Bend is in a terrible spot for radar coverage. It's like being blind to what is coming there.

 

They do have very poor radar coverage there. The only time the radar really picks up much in that area is with summer t-storms because they are high enough for the beam to catch. Even at my location post frontal precip is often below the beam. 

[DareDuck]

Just noticed that Bend is in a terrible spot for radar coverage. It's like being blind to what is coming there.

Yea pretty much what Andrew said. Only summer storms show up and even then it's a light or dark green. I'm loving this though. It's been snowing steadily for a couple hours and looks to continue for awhile. I'll post pics when I'm home.

[ShawniganLake]

I think everyone is screwed for December, lol. I'm done regurgitating my winter forecast in here, though.

There is no need to anyways. Seems like you are doing pretty well so far. Our Arctic outbreak collapsed as you speculated it would. Felt like a near perfect setup for a big snow at my location yesterday, just a shade to warm.

 

Hopefully there is a shake up later this month that opens the door for us. I was originally thinking around New Years, but I know you favor something probably a little later.