November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Lots of warm summers/long warm seasons lately, though!

Those are the best for outdoor enthusiasts like myself!

[TT-SEA]

I would gladly take long, glorious, warm summers over a slightly better chance of our short-lived snow events in the winter. No comparison. One brings fun for months and the other brings fun for a few days at best.

[HighlandExperience]

Those are the best for outdoor enthusiasts like myself!

Not if it was like last season. Hope we get out of this funk.

[Jesse]

Not if it was like last season. Hope we get out of this funk.

 

Yup, real outdoor enthusiasts know what's up.

[Phil]

Hopefully there is a shake up later this month that opens the door for us. I was originally thinking around New Years, but I know you favor something probably a little later.

Yeah, unfortunately we'll need to wait until early/mid January for the next round of (attempted) North Pacific wave breaking. That's the next timeframe to watch.

 

The question is whether or not this will actually represent and/or initiate the rapid large scale transition to a -NAM by the second half of January, or whether the strong +QBO/PV wins again and the transition to a -NAM takes until February (in which case winter is largely over for you guys).

 

Going to interesting to watch, regardless of the outcome.

[Tyler Mode]

Keep an eye on this today as the skies clear and the snow cover is revealed east of the mountains

http://ge.ssec.wisc.edu/modis-today/index.php?satellite=t1&product=true_color&date=2015_11_25_329&overlay_sector=false&overlay_state=true&overlay_coastline=true&sector=USA1&resolution=2000m

[ShawniganLake]

I had between 3 and 4 feet on the ground in 2008. I used to be able to get 2-3' of snow much more easily in the 90's. The last snow event I had, which also happened to give me over a foot, was in Jan 2012. Before that 2010 or 2011 gave me a couple inches. Maybe in total I got close to 6" in 2011 or so. i got an inch last year. 2009 was pretty bad.

Lots of micro climates and always major snow variability in the PNW.  3 of the 4 biggest snow events in my lifetime have occurred in the last 10 years.  Dec 2008, Nov 2006, Jan 2005, Dec 1996.  I was too young to remember Nov 1985, but it looks like that would have ended up 5th in terms of maximum depth. 

 

*Edit.  Actually thinking about it, The snow depth here in Feb 2014 was greater than any event in the 90's with the exception of Dec 1996. 

[Guest Winterdog]

Had a low of 23F this morning.  Arlington hit 21F.  It sure was nice late last night with the moonlight putting shadows on the frost and not a breeze in the air.  A true outdoor enthusiasts delight.

[Jesse]

Looking like the first week of December has the potential to be active with some shots of mountain snow, at very least.

Maybe we can get into a pattern where the immediate west coast is close enough to the mean trough position that we can still score some cool anoms while the majority of the country roasts (an extreme example of this would be March 2012).

[stuffradio]

I'm hoping the rain stays away next week. We need a break.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm hoping the rain stays away next week. We need a break.

 

It can come south. 

[stuffradio]

It can come south. 

I would love that!

[Jesse]

12z Euro shows a pretty pathetic, splitty pattern in the LR.

 

So that means the GFS can be thrown out for now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z Euro shows a pretty pathetic, splitty pattern in the LR.

 

So that means the GFS can be thrown out for now.

What else would it show?

[Deweydog]

How is it that you've lived in SW British Columbia for most of your life (I assume) but constantly act surprised by normal amounts of rainfall?

 

Are you simply trolling the forum, or do you actually forget what normally happens there on a year to year basis? Because you post like somebody who recently relocated there and is adjusting to the new climate.

Yeah, he's definitely the only person here that might have distorted climate expectations. Set him the **** straight, big guy.

[Jesse]

What else would it show?

 

More activity.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

More activity.

In a super Nino?

[Jesse]

In a super Nino?

 

If it were trending toward some of the other models, then yes.

 

But it isn't. So the others should likely be thrown out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is my 5th November at my current location. It is the 3rd November with sticking snow...The other two were 2011 and 2014, both were followed by sucktastic Decembers. 

[stuffradio]

 

How is it that you've lived in SW British Columbia for most of your life (I assume) but constantly act surprised by normal amounts of rainfall?

 

Are you simply trolling the forum, or do you actually forget what normally happens there on a year to year basis? Because you post like somebody who recently relocated there and is adjusting to the new climate.

 

The past couple years spoiled me for the most part.

[stuffradio]

Expecting anything less than record warmth every month is sheer insanity. I will grant you that.

 

What he's doing is more equivalent to acting surprised about temps trending towards climo. Apples to oranges comparison.

It's the rain, not the temps. Plus, I have some outdoor project that is very close to being done, but the rain is making it hard.

 

I'll TRY to stop complaining about all the rain. The good thing is that this is the wettest month of the year on average.

[crf450ish]

31 here. Wife just made deviled eggs and dill pickle rolls LOL and theres not enough room in the fridge, so out in my shop they went. The shop is around 4 degrees cooler, despite no insulation! Nice 15mph(i'm guessing ) Northern wind has been blowing all morning with the occasional 20-25mph(guessing again) gust. 

[crf450ish]

It's the rain, not the temps. Plus, I have some outdoor project that is very close to being done, but the rain is making it hard.

 

I'll TRY to stop complaining about all the rain. The good thing is that this is the wettest month of the year on average.

This (in bold) is why we packed up and moved east. We are outdoor people. Its so retarded to get rained on during 4th of July for example. Now I am not going to complain anymore on here lol........

[stuffradio]

This (in bold) is why we packed up and moved east. We are outdoor people. Its so retarded to get rained on during 4th of July for example. Now I am not going to complain anymore on here lol........

I don't remember the last time I got rained on on the 4th of July. For me, Astronomical winter to June is my favorite time of the year. Even if it's raining during that time, I know every day is growing in length, and every day is a step closer to signs of plant life. February or March is when the Frogs start croaking, and in late March or April there is a strong fragrance of flowers during or just after a rain has happened.

[Jesse]

I don't remember the last time I got rained on on the 4th of July. For me, Astronomical winter to June is my favorite time of the year. Even if it's raining during that time, I know every day is growing in length, and every day is a step closer to signs of plant life. February or March is when the Frogs start croaking, and in late March or April there is a strong fragrance of flowers during or just after a rain has happened.

We are dead opposites. July to December is my favorite half of the year.

[stuffradio]

We are dead opposites. July to December is my favorite half of the year.

Which is probably why you love the rain and I complain about it.

[Jesse]

Which is probably why you love the rain and I complain about it.

 

I would assert that the last half of the year is actually drier for the most part. November/December are usually really wet so that throws off the overall average but July-mid October are  fairly dry.

 

January through June on the other hand may not have as much absolute precip, but it is much more spread out over all of those months. Although I will admit I do like the flowery fragrance surrounding rainy periods in the mid-Spring.

 

Who said I loved the rain anyway? I think cool, clear periods like this are great too. Some balance is nice. Both in precipitation and temperatures.

[Jesse]

It's the rain, not the temps. Plus, I have some outdoor project that is very close to being done, but the rain is making it hard.

 

I'll TRY to stop complaining about all the rain. The good thing is that this is the wettest month of the year on average.

 

That's all I wanted to hear. Thanks.

[Jesse]

This is my 5th November at my current location. It is the 3rd November with sticking snow...The other two were 2011 and 2014, both were followed by sucktastic Decembers. 

 

Someone's in a good mood today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Someone's in a good mood today.

If we are looking glass half full, my average November snowfall the past 5 years is 2.1"

[TT-SEA]

Low dewpoints and crystal clear skies... perfect.

[Jesse]

The Dalles is getting close to 50 this afternoon. Not a sign of a great cold pool over there.

 

Strong north winds ended up mixing out much of the basin overnight, unfortunately.

 

The upside is that much lower DPs have bled in, so hopefully the cold pool will begin to re-establish itself after a cold night tonight with calming conditions.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Exciting times!! An air stagnation advisory has just been issued ....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Dalles is getting close to 50 this afternoon. Not a sign of a great cold pool over there.

 

Strong north winds ended up mixing out much of the basin overnight, unfortunately.

 

The upside is that much lower DPs have bled in, so hopefully the cold pool will begin to re-establish itself after a cold night tonight with calming conditions.

Things will get progressively cooler. Trust me.

[Jesse]

Things will get progressively cooler. Trust me.

 

I'm sure they will. Just a little more mixing than expected today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm sure they will. Just a little more mixing than expected today.

True. It is a mixed atmosphere for sure. 46 down in Silverton, 39 up here.

[MossMan]

Looks like I hit my high of 39 degrees, starting to drop now.

[DareDuck]

Midnight high of 27. 23-25 throughout the day with a stiff north breeze that made it feel in the low teens. Going to be a cold one tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jesse, take heart. 28 in Pendleton right now.

[Jesse]

Jesse, take heart. 28 in Pendleton right now.

Nice, cold air hanging on. PDX avoided a 50 degree disaster too.