November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Haha, 00z GFS is so strong w/ the GOA low that it pushes the downstream surf zone and subsequent wave breaker into the NAO domain, sending the lower PV column (100-30mb) into Siberia.

 

That'd certainly be a bizzare way to initiate winter. Either way, it'd be transient as the PV reconsolidates fairly quickly.

 

Perhaps the PV will become so powerful that it collapses on itself. Like a black hole.

[DareDuck]

For those who follow sports, I view moderating like officiating: it's not so much how strict you are, but how consistent. Of course, refs/umps have the benefit of solely focusing on the game at hand; I know it's hard to follow everything that goes on here closely, especially if you have a life.

Eh in sports i prefer the officials to be real loose and let them play. Here I'd rather the moderators delete more posts because people never learn their lesson around here. If debates were more constructive then they can be more lenient.

 

While nothing was particularly nasty today it doesn't need to be on here and makes this part of the forums unappealing to others.

 

I understand you guys have known each other for awhile and don't take each other's insults too personally, but it would be nice if it was a little more cordial.

[Phil]

Perhaps the PV will become so powerful that it collapses on itself. Like a black hole.

Ironically, that's actually somewhat analogous to the destabilization process that often precedes vortex breakdowns (barotropic instability).

[snow_wizard]

Very acceptable GFS run.  Some nice mountain snows, a major fire hose, a possible wind storm, and a decent cold snap in the next two weeks.  Right now it even shows late this week being decently chilly with sub 534 thickness.

[snow_wizard]

3 of the top 10 analogs at day 8 are from 2006.

[Front Ranger]

Eh in sports i prefer the officials to be real loose and let them play. Here I'd rather the moderators delete more posts because people never learn their lesson around here. If debates were more constructive then they can be more lenient.

 

While nothing was particularly nasty today it doesn't need to be on here and makes this part of the forums unappealing to others.

 

I understand you guys have known each other for awhile and don't take each other's insults too personally, but it would be nice if it was a little more cordial.

 

Well, last time I checked there are rules to the forum and no one was breaking them. But the issue here more to me was the seemingly random selection of posts to delete. I mean, we could easily find many posts in the past week that were far more insulting than those posts. I didn't even mean either of those posts to be insulting at all, it was just silliness to me. Half of what I post on here is not meant seriously. I have a feeling some people take what I say more seriously than I mean it, but hey, that's the internet for ya.

 

The deletions were strange...but whatever. I've moved on. Life isn't fair.

[snow_wizard]

All of the GFS ensemble runs today have advertised a return to above normal heights over the GOA during week two.  A very good sign!

[Front Ranger]

Latest Euro looks pretty good towards the end.

 

 

 

[DareDuck]

Well, last time I checked there are rules to the forum and no one was breaking them. But the issue here more to me was the seemingly random selection of posts to delete. I mean, we could easily find many posts in the past week that were far more insulting than those posts. I didn't even mean either of those posts to be insulting at all, it was just silliness to me. Half of what I post on here is not meant seriously. I have a feeling some people take what I say more seriously than I mean it, but hey, that's the internet for ya.

 

The deletions were strange...but whatever. I've moved on. Life isn't fair.

We're mostly in agreement there. Like I said I didn't think there was anything nasty said earlier, it's just when there's an ugly back and forth every day it's harder to let things slide. I also agree you can find many worse posts recently that I wish weren't allowed either.

 

This place has so many brilliant minds, it would be cool to use that to analyze the weather and not undermine each other's preferences.

 

Anyways back to the weather. 22 at my place in Bend with a slight chance of snow and freezing rain tomorrow evening before it switches over to rain. WSW issued that includes Bend, but that may be unnecessary for our area.

[snow_wizard]

 

This place has so many brilliant minds, it would be cool to use that to analyze the weather and not undermine each other's preferences.

 

 

 

So true!  Probably big egos attached to those brilliant minds also.

[BLI snowman]

Well, last time I checked there are rules to the forum and no one was breaking them. But the issue here more to me was the seemingly random selection of posts to delete. I mean, we could easily find many posts in the past week that were far more insulting than those posts. I didn't even mean either of those posts to be insulting at all, it was just silliness to me. Half of what I post on here is not meant seriously. I have a feeling some people take what I say more seriously than I mean it, but hey, that's the internet for ya.

 

The deletions were strange...but whatever. I've moved on. Life isn't fair.

 

I agree. In fact, I've already discussed the matter with my local congressman tonight. 

 

Latest Euro looks pretty good towards the end.

 

 

240.gif

 

Suppress that jet, baby!

[MikeInEverett]

Ha...Don't know what hour this is due to the fact that I just saw it on the PDX WX page.

 

[Deweydog]

Ha...Don't know what hour this is due to the fact that I just saw it on the PDX WX page.

 

It's for six hours from now.

 

Evacuate.

 

Somehow that setup would yeild 80+ degree lows in SE Portland.

[crf450ish]

All signs point to that. The chances of heading straight into mod/strong Nina territory (ala 1998) are mixed. Sometimes it happened after really strong Ninos, but there are many times it hasn't: 1958, 1966, 1983, 1992 all went neutralish.

 

I'd say about 50/50 we go full blown Nina.

If I'm not mistaken (50/50 I am lol), 2008 was a nina year and thats when Spokane had its massive snow storm of epic biblical proportions. on December 17-18 2008, 21" of snow fell on downtown Spokane, and I mean the metro area. 

 

https://youtu.be/64ntHN-xsLk

[Front Ranger]

You're right. Leniency will come when things lighten up and people people can post through a warm winter without sending angst filled threats to each other by seasons end.

 

Also, posts are never deleted. They're hidden. If you really want your turd examinations to be a part of public record, then PM a mod.

I understand the position you're in.

 

However, I don't understand some of the post-hiding decisions lately. Just being honest. I've been posting here a long time, and I don't complain about the moderation often. I never complain about my fellow posters (to mods). And I certainly haven't been sending any angst filled threats towards anyone.

 

But now I know "turd" is a dirty word, so I'll keep that in mind.

[Front Ranger]

So true!  Probably big egos attached to those brilliant minds also.

 

Careful...this statement could easily be construed as insulting. I don't have a brilliant mind, so I don't feel insulted, but the resident geniuses probably do.

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

Ha...Don't know what hour this is due to the fact that I just saw it on the PDX WX page.

 

 

LOL!!  Could you imagine if that was real?  ... Wowza!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good news is there is still promise in the GFS and ECMWF for mid-December...

[luvssnow_spokane]

How exactly does listing how many kids a person has constitute an "attack" against their kids?

 

I get that you don't like me, but that's a bit of a stretch.

I never even saw that you posted that... Either way, a PM might be better in this case. But up to you.

[Front Ranger]

Well you can’t please everyone all the time.  I for one appreciate iFred paying for and maintaining the site, and ad-free at that. 

 

There aren’t that many rules but they sure can be hard to follow at times.  The personal attacks don’t bother me much; in fact I chuckle when the attacker makes ridiculous assumptions about who I am.  But when a weather event brings in new and infrequent visitors, insults and individual criticisms are detrimental.  Of course that is based on the premise that we want to grow the forum, not become a semi-exclusive chat room.

 

I think iFred has demonstrated quite a bit of leniency.  Personally, I would immediately ban someone who attacks someone else’s children.  As far as hiding posts goes, remember you may not have seen all the posts in the downward spiral before they were hidden.  When a moderator starts removing them, it’s easier to just go back to the post that started it all.

 

It sure would be nice if we could go the rest of the year with only lively weather discussion, model debates, predictions, and friendly banter.  Oh, and also a white Christmas.

 

I agree, he has. It actually wasn't him who hid my posts. 

 

I think it was an effort to "crack down" and be less lenient, I'm just not sure why those particular posts were chosen. It was friendly banter...certainly not a personal attack. Just odd, but oh well.

[Jesse]

I agree, he has. It actually wasn't him who hid my posts.

 

I think it was an effort to "crack down" and be less lenient, I'm just not sure why those particular posts were chosen. It was friendly banter...certainly not a personal attack. Just odd, but oh well.

Someone messed up, but rather than being forthcoming they are just being weird about it.

[Jesse]

When facets of someone's personal life are used against them in an argument in order to degrade them. This also includes demeaning someone on their religion, or attacking someone over their socioeconomic or political position.

 

Its pretty simple and straightforward. He also doesn't hate you.

I am a member of the Sierra Club.

 

Ok, now he probably hates me.

[Deweydog]

All over a turd. Turds don't typically carry this much weight.

[Jesse]

All over a turd. Turds don't typically carry this much weight.

Unless you ate at Chipotle earlier.

[Deweydog]

Unless you ate at Chipotle earlier.

 

In that case it would have been about muddy waters.  

[Snowman5678]

We came very close to dropping $7,000 on a whole house generator back in December of 2006 after being in the dark and cold for 10 days.

 

But then we got lazy and put it off and that was a good thing.   They rebuilt the entire power system (and transmission lines) out here after that storm and also connected our area underground to the main terminal in North Bend right by Safeway.    Before that, our power was routed up through a neighborhood with overhead power lines and huge trees.   We moved into this house in August 2005 and the power would go out for long periods of time before December of 2006.   I remember we were down for 3 or 4 days in December 2005 and another 3 days during the snow of November 2006.

 

After December 2006... the only time our power has gone out for more than 2 minutes was during the ice storm in January 2012 and that was because of damage to the transmission lines.    Otherwise it never goes out regardless of how strong the wind blows or how much snow we get.   We never lost power in December 2008 and we had almost 4 feet of snow on the ground.

Same thing happened here. After 2006 they rebuilt the power system between Redmond and Duvall. We used to lose power once the winds got above 40-45 and it would typically go out at least 5 times a winter for day or two at a time. Now I can't even remember when we last lost power.