November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF sure is ugly at 240 hours... looks like a warm rain pattern.   

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112600!!chart.gif

[seattleweatherguy]

This would be interesting.

 

FB_IMG_1448518673355.jpg

That looks like a major storm face value if the tracks over southern tip of Vancouver island, 50 plus wind gusts?

[snow_wizard]

Interesting to see the GFS and ECMWF both indicate we will go back to a stormy pattern with a good chance of a fire hose again.  Looks like we could easily see another shot at some cold assuming the basic regime repeats again.  Pretty interesting how 2006 has been a very strong analog the past several GFS runs.

[MossMan]

This would be interesting.

 

FB_IMG_1448518673355.jpg

Does the Euro show this? I really need to buy a generator.

[High Desert Mat]

Good point snow wiz. Still no sign of an el Nino split flow pattern, which is really good. Just a fire hose, followed by a modified arctic outbreak, at least here that is, then back to fire hose relatively soon. Hopefully we all get a severe arctic outbreak this winter. Happy Thanksgiving all.

[bainbridgekid]

00Z ECMWF sure is ugly at 240 hours... looks like a warm rain pattern.   

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112600!!chart.gif

Talk about a nationwide blowtorch.

[bainbridgekid]

Does the Euro show this? I really need to buy a generator.

It also has a very strong storm (968mb) but the low goes way further North so it wouldn't be windy here.

 

Definitely potential for wind the second half of next week though.

[TT-SEA]

 

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.  Or as our Canadian friends call it ..."Thursday".

[MossMan]

24 current degrees.

Happy Thanksgiving!

[crf450ish]

00Z ECMWF sure is ugly at 240 hours... looks like a warm rain pattern.   

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112600!!chart.gif

Now wouldn't it be cool if this is all the models showed leading up to maybe hour, hmmm, gee i don't know 36 or something(I don't know much), and then flipped and it went all cold? I mean isn't that the typical mode of operation with these computer models? show one thing and then verify another?

[Tyler Mode]

22 here so far this morning…

[Jesse]

Mid-20s at PDX this morning.

 

A chilly 27 here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is much drier for early next week at least. Starting to back off.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is much drier for early next week at least. Starting to back off.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Corvallis 21 at their hourly update.

[MossMan]

12Z GFS is much drier for early next week at least. Starting to back off.

How about late in the week? Windstorm?

[TT-SEA]

How about late in the week? Windstorm?

 

 

Completely gone.     Much drier all week.   A little rain maybe Thursday or Friday per that run.   Everything is much farther west.

[catnip]

Completely gone.     Much drier all week.   A little rain maybe Thursday or Friday per that run.   Everything is much farther west.

 

Mr. Stuff will be happy to hear that.

 

[stuffradio]

Happy discount shopping day everyone!

[stuffradio]

Next week I'll probably tally up all my rain and see how much more or if I already am at average precipitation. I'm guessing I'm not quite there yet, but we'll see. It will be close. I'm guessing I'm in the 70" range right now.

[Phil]

Haha, ouch.

 

[stuffradio]

00Z Euro is torchy and wet. 5.4" of rain through 10 days, and highs in mid 50's for up here. It will be interesting to see if the 12Z is much different.

[bainbridgekid]

24 at PDX!

19 at OLM and 30 at SEA

[Guest Winterdog]

Arlington came in with 18F this morning, I had 21F here. It almost looks like it snowed here with so much frost.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Burns, Oregon hit -8. Only up to 4 as of 10am. Pretty good basin inversion there.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is advertising a possible freezing rain event toward the middle of next week.  It even shows the Seattle well below 40 with rain.  If things continue to unfold in this way Portland will have a good chance of seeing rain with temps well below freezing.  The WRF is normally VERY conservative with showing shallow low level cold.  Either they fixed that bias or this going to be a serious inversion.  Strangely the WRF shows Portland no colder than Seattle with the inversion which is obviously not going to happen.

 

Both the 0z and 12z GFS like the idea of a cool regime setting up for the NW later in week 2.  The 12z shows a very suppressed jet over the West, but no sign of typical Nino split flow.  I think we have a great chance of seeing another good setup for delivering Arctic air a bit down the road.  It's a bummer the situation a couple of days ago didn't have some cold over BC to tap into.  From an upper level and surface pressure perspective it was a pretty classic Arctic outbreak pattern.

[snow_wizard]

The cold subsurface water under the Nino regions is making its move.  It appears this Nino could collapse very suddenly when it does like it did in 1998.

 

[snow_wizard]

Another interesting note about ENSO is this month will one of the highest SOI Novembers ever recorded during a Nino.  It will by far be the highest during a strong Nino.  It looks like it will end around zero while 1982 was -30 and 1997 was -22.  No doubt something is suppressing the effects of the Nino thus far.  OLR anomalies between 5N and 5S, 160W to 160E should be off the charts negative right now and it's basically neutral.

[Jesse]

Pretty impressed with the 24 at PDX this morning.

 

MOS guidance shows them with highs in the 30s by Sunday. And, as Jim was saying, that models is usually pretty conservative with inversions.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is splitty and warm at 240 hours. Let's keep analyzing the GFS in the long range though. Very productive.

[Jesse]

Metro low temps:

 

22 at VUO

 

20 at HIO

 

22 at SPB

 

27 at TTD

[Jesse]

We're going to need more Euro support before getting our hopes up about having an even halfway decent pattern the first part of December.

 

Maybe the low level cold will stay intact with that drier, splitter solution, at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

24 at SLE

23 at EUG

21 at CVO

[stuffradio]

Another interesting note about ENSO is this month will one of the highest SOI Novembers ever recorded during a Nino.  It will by far be the highest during a strong Nino.  It looks like it will end around zero while 1982 was -30 and 1997 was -22.  No doubt something is suppressing the effects of the Nino thus far.  OLR anomalies between 5N and 5S, 160W to 160E should be off the charts negative right now and it's basically neutral.

Isn't the MJO the thing suppressing the Nino?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hit 20 this morning. Currently 32. It will be a chilly afternon in Eugene for the Civil War bloodbath tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem and pdx warming nicely again today. Eugene and corvallis still in the 30s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile Burns up to 7. I doubt they get out of the teens today.

[Jesse]

These well below freezing temps are great because it will kill all of the annoying flowers that try to keep blooming all winter during mild years.

 

Nothing worse than seeing blooming flowers anytime from November-February at our latitude. Winter should be winter. Having them in some state of bloom year round cheapens their return in the springtime, IMO.

[Tyler Mode]

Up to 43 here.  Seem to be warming rather quickly.  Then again it is completely sunny.  Hoping to get some NE winds in here again to dry things out, then it can decouple tonight and get into the teens hopefully. 

[Phil]

Isn't the MJO the thing suppressing the Nino?

Intraseasonal IO forcing. Next week, the IO will shut down and Niño forcing will return, as will the -SOI.