November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Got down to a nippy 24 last night.

[DareDuck]

-6 at the Bend airport this morning. Around -3 at my place and currently 21. Also spent 13 hours in the single digits or colder last night and this morning.

[snow_wizard]

It's safe to say there might be something to the 2006 analog.  It has been strongly represented on the CPC analogs for days now.  A redux would work just fine for me.  As a matter of fact many these analogs had decent cold shortly afterward.

 

[snow_wizard]

Got down to a nippy 24 last night.

 

It dipped to 23 here.  Looks pretty wintry with all of the frost.

[TT-SEA]

It's safe to say there might be something to the 2006 analog.  It has been strongly represented on the CPC analogs for days now.  A redux would work just fine for me.  As a matter of fact many these analogs had decent cold shortly afterward.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_12gfs610.gif

 

 

You know that is not how this works... these are analogs at a point in time based on the models being right at 8 days out.

 

Whenever you say 'no doubt' or 'little question' or 'safe to say' you are typically wrong and get burned.    It comes across like you are tying to convince yourself.

[TT-SEA]

Black Friday shopping is a little slower with my daughter coming along... but she loves all the seasons.

 

[GHweatherChris]

You know that is not how this works... these are analogs at a point in time based on the models being right at 8 days out.

 

Whenever you say 'no doubt' or 'little question' or 'safe to say' you are typically wrong and get burned. It comes across like you are tying to convince yourself.

And yet, it bothers you for some reason.

[Phil]

Whenever you say 'no doubt' or 'little question' or 'safe to say' you are typically wrong and get burned. It comes across like you are tying to convince yourself.

You talk about ridging and split flow as if you're doing the same. I think it's safe to say you both have straightforward agendas, only Jim doesn't feel the need to belittle you over yours.

[stuffradio]

We all agree I'm the only one on this forum without an agenda. Can I get an amen!?

[TT-SEA]

You talk about ridging and split flow as if you're doing the same. I think it's safe to say you both have straightforward agendas, only Jim doesn't feel the need to belittle you over yours.

Reporting what the ECWMF showed. Did not say there was little doubt it would happen.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is up to 48... gorgeous day.

[Bryant]

You talk about ridging and split flow as if you're doing the same. I think it's safe to say you both have straightforward agendas, only Jim doesn't feel the need to belittle you over yours.

Exactly

[TT-SEA]

Exactly

I would hope others remind me when I make statements like that... and they do.

 

It's a fair comment whenever someone uses those D+8 analogs to statements about what will happen farther into the future. I stopped doing that after being called out numerous times and people were right (including Dewey).

[TT-SEA]

SEA up to 49 and PDX is at 50. Even I expected the inversion to kick in today. I think tomorrow will be considerably cooler.

[seattleweatherguy]

Obviously. I didn't say they did.

 

Don't you need to get an ambulance chasing permit or something from the department of transportation, though?

Jim Moore calls that an aid car.

[BLI snowman]

SEA up to 49 and PDX is at 50. Even I expected the inversion to kick in today. I think tomorrow will be considerably cooler.

 

Given the moderate continental influence to the airmass it's been an excellent mild day/cold night setup. Too dry and too much mixing for any widespread fog to stay in place. There's not much impetus for it lingering into the next few afternoons either, so mid to upper 40s are again pretty likely.

[Timmy]

I'm in Austin tx for the week, I wake surfed before noon today under overcast skies and 74f, currently windy/misty and 46f. Now that is a cold front!

[snow_wizard]

I'm pretty surprised that PDX and SEA aren't at least a little cooler on the highs today than they were yesterday.  Once again areas closer to the Cascades have the chillier daytime highs today.  The offshore gradient become very weak over the weekend so I would expect a bit more fog at least and cooler max temps overall.

[snow_wizard]

You know that is not how this works... these are analogs at a point in time based on the models being right at 8 days out.

 

Whenever you say 'no doubt' or 'little question' or 'safe to say' you are typically wrong and get burned.    It comes across like you are tying to convince yourself.

 

I was simply pointing out there has been talk on the forum about 2006, some of the observed weather we have seen has matched 2006, that year had warm ENSO, and it has been a top analog for quite some time now.  Not too outlandish to suggest there might be something to it.

[TT-SEA]

I was simply pointing out there has been talk on the forum about 2006, some of the observed weather we have seen has matched 2006, that year had warm ENSO, and it has been a top analog for quite some time now.  Not too outlandish to suggest there might be something to it.

 

 

I totally agree that 2006 is on the table.   But its not really 'safe to say'.    This is a different ENSO situation and could go in many different directions even if there is a point in 8 days when it sort of matches 2006.   

[TT-SEA]

WSU beats Oregon and UCLA... and almost beats Stanford.      Yet UW is blowing them out of the stadium.

 

With a team full of freshman... I think the next few years might be good for the Huskies.

 

UW crushed Oregon State 52-7 and yet the Beavers are almost respectable against the Ducks.   

[crf450ish]

No telling how it would play out.  All I know is the winter after a transition from a major Nino to a Nina usually features a good Arctic blast.  The last four examples would be the winters of 1988-89, 1995-96, 1997-98, and 2010-11.  I guess 2007-08 would be in there also and that one never did have a blast, but the chances are still good in such a case.

Are you expecting a flop from nino to nina in 2016? I was looking at the SST anomalies on NOAA website along with the GIF animations that coincide with the SST and I "think" that it may end up neutral. I can't really be too confident though, because I'm only analyzing what I assume to be a pattern with the SST. Whats your opinion?

[snow_wizard]

Are you expecting a flop from nino to nina in 2016? I was looking at the SST anomalies on NOAA website along with the GIF animations that coincide with the SST and I "think" that it may end up neutral. I can't really be too confident though, because I'm only analyzing what I assume to be a pattern with the SST. Whats your opinion?

 

There's pretty strong evidence the Nino will transition to a major La Nina given the vast pool of subsurface cold that has already emerged.  La Ninas very often follow strong El Ninos.  A top analog to this situation could be the early 1940s.  We had a multi year strong El Nino with massive torching in the NW followed by a strong La Nina for the winter of 1942-43.

 

That having been said we could end up neutral or a weak La Nina also.  It's exceedingly unlikely the El Nino would continue through next year.

[seattleweatherguy]

Latest afd says the ecwf still has a mature 988 low and says it could be damaging. While the gfs shows nothing.

[DareDuck]

WSU beats Oregon and UCLA... and almost beats Stanford. Yet UW is blowing them out of the stadium.

 

With a team full of freshman... I think the next few years might be good for the Huskies.

 

UW crushed Oregon State 52-7 and yet the Beavers are almost respectable against the Ducks.

Rivalry games tend to end differently than most think. Undoubtedly UO and WSU are the better of the 4 schools. I'd like to see both UW and OSU turn it around, but the Cougs look like they may have some momentum going. UO isn't going anywhere either.

[GHweatherChris]

#weatherforumdrama

 

Typical I am right you are wrong and how dare you have your own opinion posts are in full effect.

[TT-SEA]

#weatherforumdrama

 

Typical I am right you are wrong and how dare you have your own opinion posts are in full effect.

 

 

Typical that bigmack and Chris are strangely offended by discussion that happens on here all time and is actually productive rather than not challenging anyone.

[Front Ranger]

Rivalry games tend to end differently than most think. Undoubtedly UO and WSU are the better of the 4 schools. I'd like to see both UW and OSU turn it around, but the Cougs look like they may have some momentum going. UO isn't going anywhere either.

Difficult to argue WSU is really better than UW, especially after today. WSU had 2 more wins, but against a slightly easier schedule. And then they get creamed head to head.

 

I may be a Dawg, but that's a completely unbiased opinion.

[FroYoBro]

Difficult to argue WSU is really better than UW, especially after today. WSU had 2 more wins, but against a slightly easier schedule. And then they get creamed head to head.

 

I may be a Dawg, but that's a completely unbiased opinion.

WSU is a passing team and they didn't have their starting qb for this game. They have been much better than the huskies throughout the year. 

[Front Ranger]

WSU is a passing team and they didn't have their starting qb for this game. They have been much better than the huskies throughout the year.

2 more wins. Slightly easier schedule. The Huskies were more inconsistent, but showed they can play with almost anyone when they're on. A truly good team wouldn't get crushed just because they lost their starting QB.

[TT-SEA]

2 more wins. Slightly easier schedule. The Huskies were more inconsistent, but showed they can play with almost anyone when they're on. A truly good team wouldn't get crushed just because they lost their starting QB.

 

Huskies have a bright future right now.   

[GHweatherChris]

Typical that bigmack and Chris are strangely offended by discussion that happens on here all time and is actually productive rather than not challenging anyone.

You challenge Jim on almost every one of his posts, which isn't that bad, it is the way you do it that is distasteful. You did it all last winter too.

 

You either have a huge crush on him and are playing hard to get or you have a severe disdain for him having his own opinion.

 

He doesn't attack anyone like you and others do, but you feel the need to attack him.

[TT-SEA]

You challenge Jim on almost every one of his posts, which isn't that bad, it is the way you do it that is distasteful. You did it all last winter too.

 

You either have a huge crush on him and are playing hard to get or you have a severe disdain for him having his own opinion.

 

He doesn't attack anyone like you and others do, but you feel the need to attack him.

Did nothing distasteful today. Still not sure why you have to jump in all the time in simple conversation about the accuracy of statements.

[DareDuck]

2 more wins. Slightly easier schedule. The Huskies were more inconsistent, but showed they can play with almost anyone when they're on. A truly good team wouldn't get crushed just because they lost their starting QB.

Sure the huskies may have a better future, but I don't really see how you can argue WSU was equal to UW this year. The beat UO and hung right there with Stanford. UW can compete with anyone when they're on, but that can be said for any team.

 

Like I said rivalry games are a whole different story. Plus UW was playing for bowl eligibility which is a huge motivational boost. No excuse for WSU, but I don't read too much into rivalry games as an indication of how the season went.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Everyone needs to take a step back.

 

Personally attacking others or tearing down their arguments with claims that their love of a certain flavor of weather is mentally unsound or that their personal views on politics, religion, or anything that isn't pertinent to a discussion at hand, has no place on this forum. Jim and Tim are adults, and engage in these arguments on a yearly basis, and that is ok, and finds it perfect fit on a weather forum. Jim and Tim are adults, and I trust that they can handle themselves and their meteorological disagreements civil.

Thank you!! I do agree and I honestly do not mind their bantering, as in the end, I feel they balance each other out. I always feel the actual real-world results are somewhere in the middle, based from their two extreme viewpoints.

[GHweatherChris]

Everyone needs to take a step back.

 

Personally attacking others or tearing down their arguments with claims that their love of a certain flavor of weather is mentally unsound or that their personal views on politics, religion, or anything that isn't pertinent to a discussion at hand, has no place on this forum. Jim and Tim are adults, and engage in these arguments on a yearly basis, and that is ok, and finds it perfect fit on a weather forum. Jim and Tim are adults, and I trust that they can handle themselves and their meteorological disagreements civil.

Tim is the only one that engages himself with Jim negatively, there is hardly ever a retort from Jim.

 

So to say there is engagement is false.

[Deweydog]

Quite a GOA monster on the 00z.

[Phil]

Northern Greenland is the closest Arctic air gets to the U.S. on the 00z GFS. Actually depicts liquid precipitation up to the Arctic circle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not to talk to much sports, but with WSU's qb out it is not a surprise they got beat. Surprising how they got beat. Also surprising how much fight OSU showed today. Good for them. Oregon really turned things around, says a lot about their resilience. They will have to shore up that defense and find a new QB next year, but they are absolutely loaded at the skill positions. UW I think will continue to steadily improve. Maybe 7-8 wins next year if things break right. 

[TT-SEA]

Quite a GOA monster on the 00z.

Represented on the 00Z ECMWF as well..

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112800!!chart.gif

 

The GOA monster approaches the west coast about every 2-3 days and ends up spitting out a ULL that sinks into SoCal and then moves out across the country. You can see two of these ULLs at 240 hours... one over the Midwest that splits off next Thursday and then second one over SoCal that splits off next weekend. Sort of like a mother hen laying eggs.

 

Both models are pretty dry for the next week at least... with substantial offshore flow at times next week. Looks like a pretty crappy pattern for those wanting to ski (i.e. my sons).