November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Some 55-degree rain might actually feel nice later this week. Maybe some humidity and a south wind.

 

Hoping things align for some stormy at the coast next weekend.

[stuffradio]

Running in cold weather is especially taxing on the body, made even more complicated by the fact stress triggers aren't nearly as obvious as when running in hot weather.

Not really, not on mine at least.

 

It's 26F right now here.

[Jesse]

Running in cold weather is especially taxing on the body, made even more complicated by the fact stress triggers aren't nearly as obvious as when running in hot weather.

 

He will be in my thoughts and prayers.

 

Anyway, I know that hiking and running have a lot of differences, but I always do great hiking in the cold. Even fairly strenuous stuff. 

[Deweydog]

He will be in my thoughts and prayers.

 

Anyway, I know that hiking and running have a lot of differences, but I always do great hiking in the cold. Even fairly strenuous stuff.

It's all about preparation.

[bainbridgekid]

Running in cold weather is especially taxing on the body, made even more complicated by the fact stress triggers aren't nearly as obvious as when running in hot weather.

The counselor at my school runs the Iditarod Trail Invitational every year.

 

350 miles in Alaska in February. He said last year there was foot deep powder on much of the trail and it was -30. Completely insane.

[Jesse]

It's all about preparation.

 

H?

[Jesse]

Looks like winter will end right on schedule, at the beginning of meteorological winter on Tuesday.

 

The middle to latter part of next week looks kind of mild and blah.

[snow_wizard]

Things aren't looking bad at all according to the GFS ensemble.  Week two has an extended period of cool WNW zonal flow with 850s slightly below normal if it verifies.  Some members go below -5C.

 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like winter will end right on schedule, at the beginning of meteorological winter on Tuesday.

 

The middle to latter part of next week looks kind of mild and blah.

 

So one week of bland means winter is over?

[Jesse]

So one week of bland means winter is over?

I'm obviously being a little facetious. We'll see where things go. A December 2006 repeat would be pretty nice.

[Deweydog]

H?

Considering your level of stress and angst over last 18 months or so, I recommend checking it out.

[snow_wizard]

I'm obviously being a little facetious. We'll see where things go. A December 2006 repeat would be pretty nice.

 

2006 is still coming up as an analog on every GFS run.

[BLI snowman]

I'm obviously being a little facetious. We'll see where things go. A December 2006 repeat would be pretty nice.

 

December 1884 would be nicer.

[BLI snowman]

I think cold rain is a virtual lock on Monday. Possibly something like 37 and 0.01" per hour rainfall rates at critical points of the afternoon.

[Jesse]

Considering your level of stress and angst over last 18 months or so, I recommend checking it out.

I guess I'd be a fool to turn down a recommendation from a long time user such as yourself!

[Jesse]

December 1884 would be nicer.

That was well within the pre-hummer era.

[Deweydog]

Euro!!

[Deweydog]

I guess I'd be a fool to turn down a recommendation from a long time user such as yourself!

You're not a man (or a teacher) until you've had an asteriod.

[BLI snowman]

It'd be kind of fun if the 540 thickness line stayed out of the lower 48 the rest of the winter.

[bainbridgekid]

It'd be kind of fun if the 540 thickness line stayed out of the lower 48 the rest of the winter.

America is the new Mexico.

[snow_wizard]

It appears the ECMWF is trending toward the GFS.  A number of days with sub zero 850s and the western periphery of the ridge far enough east to give us some action.  There's a good chance this December will be better than last year's turd fest.  Ironically the second half of this year is on track to be much cooler than last year in spite of a much stronger Nino.  As sad as it is this month will actually end up colder than any month last winter for SEA and probably for many places.

[seattleweatherguy]

It appears the ECMWF is trending toward the GFS.  A number of days with sub zero 850s and the western periphery of the ridge far enough east to give us some action.  There's a good chance this December will be better than last year's turd fest.  Ironically the second half of this year is on track to be much cooler than last year in spite of a much stronger Nino.  As sad as it is this month will actually end up colder than any month last winter for SEA and probably for many places.

but does it still show the wind storm

[snow_wizard]

but does it still show the wind storm

 

The pattern looks a bit too zonal for a windstorm, but the chance is still there IMO.  There is potential for some decent E and SE winds in some places later this week.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/933-fall-2015-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=93231

[seattleweatherguy]

The pattern looks a bit too zonal for a windstorm, but the chance is still there IMO. There is potential for some decent E and SE winds in some places later this week.

Thanks I ask because potentially I start a new job next week. Even though I'm employed I still hope it snows!

[Tyler Mode]

Finally completely calmed down last night.  19 degrees for a low so far.

[MossMan]

Just hit 19 degrees here. You can really see the trapped pollution this morning...time for an atmosphere mix up!

[TT-SEA]

Just hit 19 degrees here. You can really see the trapped pollution this morning...time for an atmosphere mix up!

 

 

Should feel almost spring-like this coming week!   

[crf450ish]

20 at my house this morning, with loads of freezing fog stuck to the trees, so it appears...I'm learning that my exact location runs several degrees warmer then the actual Fruitland weather station, its 16.5 in Fruitland. NOAA station is in Wellpinit, its 13 there. 

[MossMan]

Should feel almost spring-like this coming week!

My wife asked me last night if it was going to rain again the rest of the winter and was worried about our well going dry since it hasn't rained in "a long time"...I thought she was kidding...she wasn't. She loves the rain and hates this cold dry weather since she says it drys out her skin too much. Opposites really do attract haha!

[FroYoBro]

It looks like the cold has really built up in the area the last 24 hours. Today should be pretty chilly at pdx. 

[snow_wizard]

Very cool sat pic this morning.  You can easily the valleys around the edges of the Basin.  It's pretty interesting how the Gorge outflow turns so much colder when the Basin is locked into low clouds and fog.  One interesting thing in particular on this picture is you can see the fog run all  the way up the approach to Snoqualmie Pass right to the crest of the Cascades.  Sorry for the poor picture quality.  I had to do a screen shot to capture it.

[snow_wizard]

My wife asked me last night if it was going to rain again the rest of the winter and was worried about our well going dry since it hasn't rained in "a long time"...I thought she was kidding...she wasn't. She loves the rain and hates this cold dry weather since she says it drys out her skin too much. Opposites really do attract haha!

 

How on Earth could she forget the fire hoses we just got hit with?

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS is far from terrible.  Thicknesses drop below 534 a number of times and we have a good mix of active weather and cool / quiet interludes.  The end of the run looks very promising for some more meaningful cold shortly thereafter.  Recent GFS ensemble runs have also had a number of members dropping below the -5C line over Seattle later in week two.  The 12z shows some decent mountain snow potential, but also one nasty round of warm rain.

[TT-SEA]

The 12z GFS is far from terrible.  Thicknesses drop below 534 a number of times and we have a good mix of active weather and cool / quiet interludes.  The end of the run looks very promising for some more meaningful cold shortly thereafter.  Recent GFS ensemble runs have also had a number of members dropping below the -5C line over Seattle later in week two.  The 12z shows some decent mountain snow potential, but also one nasty round of warm rain.

 

 

Extrapolating the GFS beyond 384 hours makes perfect sense.   

 

Even beyond 120 hours... the GFS is sketchy at best.

 

A warm rain event would be just crap for the mountains... reset back to zero for the lower passes.

[snow_wizard]

5 members of the 12z GFS ensemble drop into cold enough to snow territory late in the run.

 

I have some faith something good could happen later in December as some of the MJO models are forecasting an MJO wave emerging in region 4 or 5 a bit later on.  That is usually the best region for us to score.

[snow_wizard]

Extrapolating the GFS beyond 384 hours makes perfect sense.   

 

Even beyond 120 hours... the GFS is sketchy at best.

 

A warm rain event would be just crap for the mountains... reset back to zero for the lower passes.

 

You gotta start somewhere I guess.

[Jesse]

Very cool sat pic this morning.  You can easily the valleys around the edges of the Basin.  It's pretty interesting how the Gorge outflow turns so much colder when the Basin is locked into low clouds and fog.  One interesting thing in particular on this picture is you can see the fog run all  the way up the approach to Snoqualmie Pass right to the crest of the Cascades.  Sorry for the poor picture quality.  I had to do a screen shot to capture it.

 

This is an interesting pattern that I have a lot of fun tracking.

 

Some of the temps in Burns, OR have been incredible with this cold episode.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=BNO&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

 

6/-15 there yesterday. Currently it is -3 after another low of -15. Part of me wishes I had time to drive down there just to experience that kind of cold.

[Jesse]

You gotta start somewhere I guess.

 

Considering the person constantly harassing you NEVER extrapolates beyond the models or only sees what he wants to see, I can understand why he's upset.

[ShawniganLake]

I just read a news story on komo that a man died after falling through the ice while attempting to skate on a pond near Yelm.  It's a sad story, but I cant imagine ice being thick enough anywhere west of the cascades to even think about going out on it.