November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter 2014-15: Three cold air intrusions.

 

Winter 2015-16: One so far.

 

I hope this winter can be as good as 2014-15.

 

IMBY its already better. 3.5" of snow this year and last year, except I was not in town on Christmas Eve last year when over half of that fell, so I have gotten to enjoy it more this year. #winning. 

[Kayla]

Why??

 

Betting against the ECMWF for the next week?  Not a good idea.  

 

You need to spend 5 minutes and run through the detailed maps for the 12Z ECMWF run.    You spend too much time focused on the GFS.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

 

You need need a new source for your "detailed maps" and get a weatherbell account.

 

Hate to break it to you, but no PDX 60's in sight.

[GHweatherChris]

Last year it got pretty cold in mid-November, about as cold as now. Than it snowed in late November and colded again!

We didn't get more than a dusting of snow here twice last year.

[Jesse]

There were the two "cool" snaps last year in November. This has produced much more impressive lows in the Willamette Valley. East side it is fairly similar to last year. The duration has been a bit longer with this one cool snap this year.

The first cool snap last November lasted about ten days (10th-20th). This one will last about as long. Then last November had the bonus cold snap around the end of the month with snow up north.

 

Also the mid-Novemver cold snap last year was earlier, colder in the upper levels, and overall more impressive all around. The high of 38 at PDX on the 13th was one for the books!

[TT-SEA]

You need need a new source for your "detailed maps" and get a weatherbell account.

 

Hate to break it to you, but no PDX 60's in sight.

 

There is a shot on Thursday.    This is at 2 p.m. that day...

 

http://s1.postimg.org/uwet734rj/Untitled4.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The first cool snap last November lasted about ten days (10th-20th). This one will last about as long. Then last November had the bonus cold snap around the end of the month with snow up north.

 

Also the mid-Novemver cold snap last year was earlier, colder in the upper levels, and overall more impressive all around. The high of 38 at PDX on the 13th was one for the books!

 

We can split hairs, I guess I have disappointing memories of last year so its more of a personal thing. It is worth noting that this November at PDX will end up at least 1F colder than last November. 

[Jesse]

We can split hairs, I guess I have disappointing memories of last year so its more of a personal thing. It is worth noting that this November at PDX will end up at least 1F colder than last November.

Understandable.

 

I guess my point is they were closer than people are making them out to be. Arguably last November may have been better depending on who you talk to.

 

We aren't departing from last winter as much as I'd like to see, at least at this point.

[Kayla]

There is a shot on Thursday.    This is at 2 p.m. that day...

 

http://s1.postimg.org/uwet734rj/Untitled4.jpg

 

Keep hanging onto your "detailed maps" and all of its 30km resolution!

 

Nothing warmer than 54º through the next 10 days at 12km resolution and even lower with the new parallel run at 9km.

[TT-SEA]

Keep hanging onto your "detailed maps" and all of its 30km resolution!

 

Nothing warmer than 54º through the next 10 days at 12km resolution and even lower with the new parallel run at 9km.

 

 

We will see.   I am only talking about one day.     Those maps on that site are insanely good overall.   

[crf450ish]

Quite impressive to see nearly every station on both sides of the Cascades running considerably colder than yesterday.  Nice cold snap no matter how you slice it.

Its 2:30 in the afternoon and my thermometer has budged 2 degrees since 6am! I cannot believe this! This is incredible. 20 degrees right now. All the pine trees are dusted with frost (from what I believe to be from freezing fog?). We still have leftover that wont fit into the fridge sitting in my shop haha! I hope this cold over here lasts till the next snowfall. I would be intrigued if the current 3/4" of snow  that has managed to stick around became the base for a much deeper snow pack

[BLI snowman]

60s in December are pretty much reserved for subtropical airmasses and major southerly wind events. I don't see that in the pipeline.

[TT-SEA]

60s in December are pretty much reserved for subtropical airmasses and major southerly wind events. I don't see that in the pipeline.

 

Probably not... but here is the set up that morning.   Finger of warm air poking up ahead of trough offshore.   Could happen.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!96!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112912!!chart.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friend snapped this pic of the Deshutes River in Bend this afternoon.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS predicting a high of "45-50" for the Salem area on Thursday. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls went 35/23 today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Highest hourly reading at PDX today was 40. We'll see if they bumped up between hourly obs, but they are now down to 39, so the daily high has been achieved. 

[Front Ranger]

What are you debating over, exactly? The GFS and ECMWF solutions look relatively similar to me. Both are seasonally mild and zonal, with the GFS running a bit wetter/cooler but not substantially so.

 

Not really. At least, not in the sense of having a firehose pointed at the PNW, which is what happens with true zonal flow this time of year.

[Front Ranger]

The first cool snap last November lasted about ten days (10th-20th). This one will last about as long. Then last November had the bonus cold snap around the end of the month with snow up north.

 

Also the mid-Novemver cold snap last year was earlier, colder in the upper levels, and overall more impressive all around. The high of 38 at PDX on the 13th was one for the books!

 

And yet, this November will end up way colder just about everywhere than last November. Go figure!

[TT-SEA]

Portland NWS predicting a high of "45-50" for the Salem area on Thursday. 

 

 

Just means they are ignoring the ECMWF.   Whatever.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just means they are ignoring the ECMWF.   Whatever.

 

I would never accuse the Portland NWS as being a model of accuracy. They have felt the need to issue a special weather statement for possible wintery precip in the valley tomorrow...Ehhhh...Precip is going to be severely limited. 

[crf450ish]

Keep hanging onto your "detailed maps" and all of its 30km resolution!

 

Nothing warmer than 54º through the next 10 days at 12km resolution and even lower with the new parallel run at 9km.

What storm is that you have for your avatar? If I'm not mistaken, at first glance, I'd venture to say its the hanukkah eve storm of 2006! Man, that was truly an epic storm. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Troutdale currently 36 with the E wind gusting to 40. Nippy!

[TT-SEA]

I would never accuse the Portland NWS as being a model of accuracy. They have felt the need to issue a special weather statement for possible wintery precip in the valley tomorrow...Ehhhh...Precip is going to be severely limited. 

 

 

Here is tomorrow afternoon.   

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_030_precip_p03.gif

[Phil]

Not really. At least, not in the sense of having a firehose pointed at the PNW, which is what happens with true zonal flow this time of year.

If the upcoming pattern isn't zonal, then what the heck is it?

[Front Ranger]

If the upcoming pattern isn't zonal, then what the heck is it?

 

Some sort of split flow hybrid, going by the Euro.

 

Dec 2006, Jan 2006, Jan 2012 were all examples of months with dominant zonal flow.

[Phil]

Some sort of split flow hybrid, going by the Euro.

 

Dec 2006, Jan 2006, Jan 2012 were all examples of months with dominant zonal flow.

Here's the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to December 2006.

 

Pretty much the same pattern.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Here's the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to December 2006.

 

image.png

 

image.png

 

 

The resulting details have not been nearly as extreme as 2006 around here.   No massive flooding... no massive snowstorm.   Hints of both in the patterns but nothing even close to 2006.

 

Mid-December windstorm is the next hallmark of that year.    

[crf450ish]

Some sort of split flow hybrid, going by the Euro.

 

Dec 2006, Jan 2006, Jan 2012 were all examples of months with dominant zonal flow.

What happened in inland NW, more specifically inland WA state during these examples?

[Phil]

The resulting details have not been nearly as extreme as 2006 around here. No massive flooding... no massive snowstorm. Hints of both in the patterns but nothing even close to 2006.

 

Mid-December windstorm is the next hallmark of that year.

 

That doesn't make the pattern more or less zonal. In fact, some degree of wave amplification is required for baroclinic deepening like that.

[crf450ish]

http://i1139.photobucket.com/albums/n545/crf450ish1/Mobile%20Uploads/image.jpeg

 

Best picture I can come up with to show the frostiness here at my neck of the woods. this is just out my back porch. Its awesome. I just went for a 2 mile quad ride and its like this everywhere. Theres a mountain called Miller Mountain thats just a hop skip and a jump from my house. @ 3,050' elevation, its even colder up there! (my house is 2,375'). I took my infrared thermometer with me and measured temp on multiple surfaces and the average temp appears to be 13* compared to 20 @ my house. 

 

EDIT: I want to note the gray hue of the pine trees. That is 100% frost that has managed to stick around all day! This is literally the first time in my life I have witnessed this. Hence my over cheerful attitude in my post 

[TT-SEA]

Seahawks defense is average at best now... maybe below average.

 

I don't trust them to actually stop anyone when it matters.   No fire now.

[MossMan]

Only hit 35 degrees today after a low of 19. Currently 29 and dropping rapidly!

[TT-SEA]

http://i1139.photobucket.com/albums/n545/crf450ish1/Mobile%20Uploads/image.jpeg

 

Best picture I can come up with to show the frostiness here at my neck of the woods. this is just out my back porch. Its awesome. I just went for a 2 mile quad ride and its like this everywhere. Theres a mountain called Miller Mountain thats just a hop skip and a jump from my house. @ 3,050' elevation, its even colder up there! (my house is 2,375'). I took my infrared thermometer with me and measured temp on multiple surfaces and the average temp appears to be 13* compared to 20 @ my house. 

 

EDIT: I want to note the gray hue of the pine trees. That is 100% frost that has managed to stick around all day! This is literally the first time in my life I have witnessed this. Hence my over cheerful attitude in my post 

 

 

I would think frost stuck around there all the time when the eastern part of the state gets under a solid inversion like now.

[DareDuck]

My friend snapped this pic of the Deshutes River in Bend this afternoon.

 

 

I'll be hiking along the deschutes tomorrow. Should be fun. The roads out here have been a mess since Tuesday though. I've probably seen 30-40 cars off the road and that's just where I drive. I think every day there has been a major accident on the 97 somewhere through town.

[snow_wizard]

Lots of places got just about as cold in mid-November, late November and right around New Years last winter.

 

PDX had a record low or two the first week of December last year!

 

We still have big shoes to fill to catch up to 2014-15.

 

This has been a way colder month though.

[DareDuck]

Managed to get to 29 at our place today. Been below 30 since Tuesday afternoon. We have 5 foot long icicles that will not budge. Snow has compacted in many areas but in the untouched area of my backyard it's still 13" deep.

[snow_wizard]

Right now I really see nothing separating this December from last December on the models. Last year the first ten days were a complete torch at the surface and this year looks the same.

 

The GFS ensemble continues to insist there's a good chance of it getting chilly during week two.  I'm not sure why you're so negative right now.

[snow_wizard]

32 at SEA at 4pm.  I'm officially impressed.

[snow_wizard]

Its 2:30 in the afternoon and my thermometer has budged 2 degrees since 6am! I cannot believe this! This is incredible. 20 degrees right now. All the pine trees are dusted with frost (from what I believe to be from freezing fog?). We still have leftover that wont fit into the fridge sitting in my shop haha! I hope this cold over here lasts till the next snowfall. I would be intrigued if the current 3/4" of snow  that has managed to stick around became the base for a much deeper snow pack

 

Heavy freezing fog is one of the cool things that happens over there.  Sometimes the trees got flocked with a half inch of that stuff and it's quite pretty.  I suppose they could get ice fog over there on occasional also.  That is when the moisture is frozen in the air as opposed to freezing when it contacts a surface.

[FroYoBro]

Pretty cold day. Only got up to 41 at pdx and 43 here. Already down to 36 here.