November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Represented on the 00Z ECMWF as well..

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112800!!chart.gif

 

The GOA monster approaches the west coast about every 2-3 days and ends up spitting out a ULL that sinks into SoCal and then moves out across the country. You can see two of these ULLs at 240 hours... one over the Midwest that splits off next Thursday and then second one over SoCal that splits off next weekend. Sort of like a mother hen laying eggs.

 

Both models are pretty dry for the next week at least... with substantial offshore flow at times next week. Looks like a pretty crappy pattern for those wanting to ski (i.e. my sons).

Good lookin' SE ridge depicted there. Hmmmmmmm...

[TT-SEA]

My son took this time-lapse photo from our deck over 2 hours so you can see the movement of the stars across the sky.   Mt Si shows up really well with the extended exposure time.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Northern Greenland is the closest Arctic air gets to the U.S. on the 00z GFS. Actually depicts liquid precipitation up to the Arctic circle.

In the form of snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 at Corvallis and Eugene on the hour. I believe this is the first time since 1993 that Eugene has had back to back lows in the teens in November. 

[crf450ish]

19 at Corvallis and Eugene on the hour. I believe this is the first time since 1993 that Eugene has had back to back lows in the teens in November. 

Could these numbers be used to compare and contrast (analog i think is the word I'm looking for?)?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could these numbers be used to compare and contrast (analog i think is the word I'm looking for?)?

 

I would say no. More of a historical footnote. That was with an arctic airmass in 1993, whereas this is not. It was the coldest weather of that winter, which I think many of us would agree this has a chance of being, at least for overnight lows. 

[crf450ish]

18 at my house this morning with a seriously cold north wind (it literally feels like north dakota @ 0* without wind). Still have about 1" or so of snow on the ground. It just wont melt. Didnt get above 30* yesterday. 

[TT-SEA]

No cold air anywhere put the latest ECMWF weeklies...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-update-into-christmas-week/53873309

[crf450ish]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=47.964096771949585&lon=-118.22651623463582#.VlnQGIRlmHo

 

If this verifies, My wife and I are in for some serious work. There is still a solid sheet of compact snow & ice down our mile & 1/2 long county gravel road leading to our house. Trees block 90% of the sunlight from the road. We received 2" of snow and the forecast called for less then a half inch of snow. 

 

Granted we aren't the only ones that live down this road, but the last 1/2 mile is basically ours to plow until the county gets around to it. If it snows even a mere 2" more, its going to stick like glue onto the sheet of ice . It should be awesome. 

[DareDuck]

With all the snow here, the gravel roads are easier than the streets. My girlfriend works out of town off a gravel road and I've gotten better traction there than anywhere else.

 

Got down to -6 this morning. Pretty cold taking my girlfriend to work.

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 21 here this morning.  It's unusual for each day to have progressively colder low temps in these situations.  Probably due to the fact the mid levels are cooler than they usually are in a ridge situation and fog has been quite limited compared to what would normally occur.  Tonight could even be colder which would put this area in the range of the coldest it gets without true Arctic air in place.

[MossMan]

PNA looks to trend favorable by around the second or third week of December...that is encouraging!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

[snow_wizard]

PNA looks to trend favorable by around the second or third week of December...that is encouraging!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

 

Indeed.  We have as good a chance as anyone of scoring the first Arctic blast once the nationwide torch begins to wane.  In actuality the torch (in relation to normal) looks like it will be the most pronounced east of the Rockies.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z ensemble shows great promise this December will be far cooler than last year (not saying much), as it depicts a couple of reasonably cool interludes over the next two weeks.  Around the 8th the mean indicates 850s dropping into the -3 to -4 range over SEA and at mid month both the operational and the control are below the historic normal.

[TT-SEA]

The 6z ensemble shows great promise this December will be far cooler than last year (not saying much), as it depicts a couple of reasonably cool interludes over the next two weeks.  Around the 8th the mean indicates 850s dropping into the -3 to -4 range over SEA and at mid month both the operational and the control are below the historic normal.

 

 

The GFS is constantly playing catch up.    You should focus on the ECMWF and its ensembles first... the GFS should only be used as back-up support beyond 5 days.

 

Massive GOA trough for the foreseeable future...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2015112800!!chart.gif

[Guest Winterdog]

Dropped to 21 here this morning.  It's unusual for each day to have progressively colder low temps in these situations.  Probably due to the fact the mid levels are cooler than they usually are in a ridge situation and fog has been quite limited compared to what would normally occur.  Tonight could even be colder which would put this area in the range of the coldest it gets without true Arctic air in place.

I had a low of 19F this morning which continued the trend of the lows cooling each day. Arlington's low however has been 18F for the past three days. I see Seattle had a low of 27F which is likely due to reduced wind.

[snow_wizard]

I can very much live with the latest GFS runs.  They look pretty much seasonable much of the time.  A few chilly interludes, some mountain snow, a few dry days.  Pretty hard to ask for more with the crazy warm ENSO.  The overall regime certainly leaves the door open for some decent cold a bit down the road.  I continue to think a windstorm of some magnitude is likely in December.

[snow_wizard]

A huge area of fog and low clouds has developed east of the Cascades.  The gorge outflow should turn much colder as the weekend progresses.

[snow_wizard]

Even the ECMWF has a number of days with 850s below 0C now.  Not as good as the GFS, but a little better.  That model shows no 850s below -5 anywhere in the entire country at day 10.  Amazing.

[Phil]

What a torch. Hate it, but it's still interesting to observe from a scientific perspective. The eventual breakdown of the dominating +PV/+NAM in January will also be fun to watch.

 

Day 10 GEFS, EPS, NAEFS, and GGEM ensembles in perfect agreement.

 

#hellonearth

 

[Phil]

Also, for those who are a fan of global warming, this is actually the perfect pattern to add to the planetary energy budget while simultaneously registering the warmest possible northern hemispheric anomalies.

[snow_wizard]

Also, for those who are a fan of global warming, this is actually the perfect pattern to add to the planetary energy budget while simultaneously registering the warmest possible northern hemispheric anomalies.

 

It's going to be fun to watch their reaction when the crash comes though.  I have a feeling this crash will rival or exceed the one after the 1998 Nino.  Should be fun times coming.  Speaking of crash...their is bound to be one for the US sometime this winter.

[TT-SEA]

It's going to be fun to watch their reaction when the crash comes though. I have a feeling this crash will rival or exceed the one after the 1998 Nino. Should be fun times coming. Speaking of crash...their is bound to be one for the US sometime this winter.

Yes... so fun to watch their reaction! Like there will even be a reaction. The climate IS warming for whatever reason and people know that its not always upward but in steps with cold years in there.

 

And 1998-2001 was great for snow in Seattle. Maybe the additional climate warming since then will take some edge off the insane snow fun in those years in the lowlands this time around.

[BLI snowman]

It's going to be fun to watch their reaction when the crash comes though.  I have a feeling this crash will rival or exceed the one after the 1998 Nino.  Should be fun times coming.  Speaking of crash...their is bound to be one for the US sometime this winter.

 

That "crash" included back to back warmest winters on record in the U.S.  in 1998-99 and 1999-00. 

 

And 5 years without an arctic outbreak here from December 1998 to January 2004.

 

Fun times.

[snow_wizard]

That "crash" included back to back warmest winters on record in the U.S.  in 1998-99 and 1999-00. 

 

And 5 years without an arctic outbreak here from December 1998 to January 2004.

 

Fun times.

 

It would certainly be a case of lightning striking the exact same spot twice if that were to happen again.  For now that stands as a fluke.

[snow_wizard]

Temps are definitely running lower than this time yesterday.  Should be some nice minus departures today and tomorrow.

[TT-SEA]

It would certainly be a case of lightning striking the exact same spot twice if that were to happen again. For now that stands as a fluke.

5 consecutive years is no fluke.

[Phil]

That "crash" included back to back warmest winters on record in the U.S. in 1998-99 and 1999-00.

 

And 5 years without an arctic outbreak here from December 1998 to January 2004.

 

Fun times.

To be fair, there were some other factors involved, in regards to those blowtorch seasons. I'm not sure we can repeat that, assuming the suspected descent into the grand solar minimum pans out.

 

If we actually lose the solar cycles, the Brewer Dobson Circulation will go nuclear. The ridiculous, semi-permanent blocking during the mid/late 1600s is a testament to this:

[snow_wizard]

To be fair, there were some other factors involved, regarding those blowtorch seasons. I'm not sure we can repeat that, assuming the suspected descent into a grand solar minimum pans out.

 

If we do lose the solar cycles, the Brewer Dobson Circulation will go nuclear.

 

Good point.  We were actually going into a solar max in the 1998 to 2002 period.  That may have had something to do with it.

[ShawniganLake]

It would certainly be a case of lightning striking the exact same spot twice if that were to happen again.  For now that stands as a fluke.

I have a feeling this Nino crash and following cold ENSO period will have much different results.  The fact that this crash is coinciding with lower solar will hopefully help.  The 98 crash coincided with a spike in cycle 23, pretty much the opposite is going to happen this time.  I like our chances in the coming years. 

[TT-SEA]

I have a feeling this Nino crash and following cold ENSO period will have much different results. The fact that this crash is coinciding with lower solar will hopefully help. The 98 crash coincided with a spike in cycle 23, pretty much the opposite is going to happen this time. I like our chances in the coming years.

 

Maybe a slightly warmer version of 2007-08!

[Phil]

Good point. We were actually going into a solar max in the 1998 to 2002 period. That may have had something to do with it.

Yeah, this El Niño response is occurring a bit later in the cycle, after several failed attempts over the last few years.

 

The last five solar maximums all initiated a strong/super Niño response within a few years of maximum, and the timing of these responses is roughly analogous to cycle strength and the ROC integral.

[ShawniganLake]

Maybe a slightly warmer version of 2007-08!

I am assuming you are going with the 2006-07 analog here.  I would take my chances with a general repeat of the 2007-2012 period.  Even with the 0.1F, or whatever it is, warming that has probably occurred since then. 

[snow_wizard]

SEA is 6 degrees lower than this time yesterday.  Now that's more like it.

 

Too bad there wasn't snow going into this.  There would have been no melting in the shaded areas.  As it is the shady areas are getting pretty darn white here.

[snow_wizard]

I have a feeling this Nino crash and following cold ENSO period will have much different results.  The fact that this crash is coinciding with lower solar will hopefully help.  The 98 crash coincided with a spike in cycle 23, pretty much the opposite is going to happen this time.  I like our chances in the coming years. 

 

I agree.  This could be our time coming up.  God knows we are BEYOND DUE.

[TT-SEA]

I agree. This could be our time coming up. God knows we are BEYOND DUE.

Global warming hurts most in marginal climates. Move and get it over with already!

[Phil]

Global warming hurts most in marginal climates. Move and get it over with already!

This may hold true on the aggregate, but only to the extent of the observed warming. It's not a huge deal when discussing anomalous individual events, and maximum potential,

 

For example, note February 2015 the Northeast U.S. A large number of cities not only observed their coldest February on record, but also smashed all-time record lows, despite obvious UHI influence in many cases. Several cities also observed their snowiest winters on record, including Boston, MA.

 

There's nothing preventing something similarly anomalous from occurring in your region. Obviously the observed warming can't help, but you've also had a lot of bad luck and unfavorable/poorly timed forcing extremes to deal with. That won't last forever.

[snow_wizard]

This may hold true on the aggregate, but only to the extent of the observed warming. It's not a huge deal when discussing anomalous individual events, and maximum potential,

 

For example, note February 2015 the Northeast U.S. A large number of cities not only observed their coldest February on record, but also smashed all-time record lows, despite obvious UHI influence in many cases. Several cities also observed their snowiest winters on record, including Boston, MA.

 

There's nothing preventing something similarly anomalous from occurring in your region. Obviously the observed warming can't help, but you've also had a lot of bad luck and unfavorable/poorly timed forcing extremes to deal with. That won't last forever.

 

And don't forget how cold the upper Midwest was in the previous winter.  Anomalies happen everywhere.  No reason we can't pull off something similar.

[HighlandExperience]

That "crash" included back to back warmest winters on record in the U.S. in 1998-99 and 1999-00.

 

And 5 years without an arctic outbreak here from December 1998 to January 2004.

 

Fun times.

I was a teen back in those days. During that time period I figured Seattle was incapable of seeing a real winter.

[ShawniganLake]

When you combine low solar with a cold ENSO event, you would be hard pressed to find a winter that didn't deliver some nice events for my area.  I looked at the last 5 solar cycles and more specifically snowfall at Shawnigan Lake during winters with low solar coinciding with Cold ENSO.  I came up with the following winters and the snowfall totals that occurred......1964, then 73, 74, 75, then 84, 85, then 95, 96, then 07, 08.  Only the winter of 95-96 failed to end up notably above the average of 29" here.

 

1964     66"

1973     37"

1974     51"

1975     42"

1984     44"

1985     77"

1995     29"

1996     70"

2007     55"

2008     77"

 

Needless to say, I have high hopes for the coming years.