November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

I'll be quite surprised if everything you stated here verifies.

I hope you are right. Considering the turd fest of the last few winters I am not sure though.

[Front Ranger]

The best winters for lake ice since 1890 from what I've been able to put together are.

 

1892-93

1906-07

1908-09

1915-16

1924-25

1928-29

1929-30

1936-37

1942-43 (maybe)

1948-49

1949-50

1956-57

 

Since 1957 I would imagine Dec 1972, Dec 1983, Nov/ Dec 1985, Feb 1989, and Dec 1990 probably did pretty well also.  Jan 1969 probably had too much snow to allow good ice to form.

 

More recently I did see good ice on decent sized lakes in Feb 1996

 

There have been some more recent events that produced plenty of iced-over ponds/small lakes as well, from talking to friends/family in the area. I know Dec 1998 did in the Willamette Valley where I lived at the time. And I know Dec 2009 did in western WA.

 

Yeah...there are many instances of deep cold in the 19th century.  I focused pretty much on 1892 to present.

 

He said 1978-79.

[TT-SEA]

I hope you are right. Considering the turd fest of the last few winters I am not sure though.

 

 

The next week is a turd fest for the mountains.   And its going to turn much warmer with southerly flow and some showers.   You can pretty much count on that at this point based on recent ECMWF runs.  Hopefully it turns better for the mountains in 2 weeks.

 

Here is the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours... pretty ugly even then.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112912!!chart.gif

[BLI snowman]

Actually, if you are getting lows in the teens to lower 20s, and you're only going above freezing for a few hours every day, even if you're getting up to 35-40 you'll get some pretty thick ice. I've seen it here many times.

 

People fall through the ice and die in all sorts of temps and bodies of water, unfortunately.

 

The afternoon sun will still whittle it down when you're talking temps well above freezing every day. Obviously the ice was thick enough for these folks to go out on for a time, but there's no way it'd be thick enough to support an extended period with weight on it when the daytime weather conditions guarantee the ice weakening anyways. Should be common sense. 

[Front Ranger]

The next week is a turd fest for the mountains.   And its going to turn much warmer with southerly flow and some showers.   You can pretty much count on that at this point based on recent ECMWF runs.  Hopefully it turns better for the mountains in 2 weeks.

 

Here is the 12Z ECMWF at 240 hours... pretty ugly even then.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015112912!!chart.gif

 

Ha, that's the warmest frame of the whole run for the PNW, silly.

[Front Ranger]

The afternoon sun will still whittle it down when you're talking temps well above freezing every day. Obviously the ice was thick enough for these folks to go out on for a time, but there's no way it'd be thick enough to support an extended period with weight on it when the daytime weather conditions guarantee the ice weakening anyways. Should be common sense. 

 

Well, there were probably other individuals who ventured out on the ice somewhere with similar temps and didn't fall through. You only hear about the ones that die.

 

I'm just saying that I've seen pretty thick ice form with afternoon temps near 40, as long as most of the day is below freezing and it gets well below freezing at night. Amount of direct sunlight definitely is a factor as well.

[TT-SEA]

Ha, that's the warmest frame of the whole run for the PNW, silly.

 

 

Not the point at all.   Just that there is not much between now and then and its still crap for the mountains even that far out.   

 

I want snow in the mountains as much as everyone else.  I am desperately looking for signs of good snow up there.

[BLI snowman]

Well, there were probably other individuals who ventured out on the ice somewhere with similar temps and didn't fall through. You only hear about the ones that die.

 

I'm just saying that I've seen pretty thick ice form with afternoon temps near 40, as long as most of the day is below freezing and it gets well below freezing at night. Amount of direct sunlight definitely is a factor as well.

 

I don't know why anyone would take the chance in those conditions. Something merely being frozen obviously doesn't necessarily equate to something being able to support weight on it. There's "pretty thick ice" and then there's ice that you'd actually want to try to walk or skate on. 

 

These guys wisely waited until the 17th straight day below freezing to go for their river drive back in January 1930

 

[Deweydog]

Why??

 

Betting against the ECMWF for the next week? Not a good idea.

 

You need to spend 5 minutes and run through the detailed maps for the 12Z ECMWF run. You spend too much time focused on the GFS.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

I think I know what (or who) you are too focused on.

[TT-SEA]

I think I know what (or who) you are too focused on.

 

No doubt.

[Front Ranger]

These guys wisely waited until the 17th straight day below freezing to go for their river drive back in January 1930

 

riverfrozen2 (1).jpg

 

Yeah, I'm sure dozens perished in the preceding 16 days trying the same thing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going out on the ice is about more than just temperatures Some bodies of water have springs which inject fresh, relatively warmer water, to certain areas of the body of water at a constant basis. Thus keeping the ice thin in spots even after weeks of sub freezing weather. If you are going to go out on a frozen body of water, especially one that is not heavily used for ice skating, ice fishing, etc... I would recommend knowing something about the body of water. 

[TT-SEA]

Going out on the ice is about more than just temperatures Some bodies of water have springs which inject fresh, relatively warmer water, to certain areas of the body of water at a constant basis. Thus keeping the ice thin in spots even after weeks of sub freezing weather. If you are going to go out on a frozen body of water, especially one that is not heavily used for ice skating, ice fishing, etc... I would recommend knowing something about the body of water. 

 

 

Exactly.

  

Its never totally safe.   

[snow_wizard]

There have been some more recent events that produced plenty of iced-over ponds/small lakes as well, from talking to friends/family in the area. I know Dec 1998 did in the Willamette Valley where I lived at the time. And I know Dec 2009 did in western WA.

 

 

He said 1978-79.

 

Oops!  Makes sense.

[snow_wizard]

Ha, that's the warmest frame of the whole run for the PNW, silly.

 

And ironically the best frame IMO.  At day 10 the ECMWF looks poised to deliver some chillier air.

[TT-SEA]

And ironically the best frame IMO. At day 10 the ECMWF looks poised to deliver some chillier air.

Right. There is some potential there if you extrapolate again. I am cheering for mountain snow. I want to see some hope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is a pic of the Little Deshutes River in Central Oregon. 

 

[snow_wizard]

Why??

 

Betting against the ECMWF for the next week?  Not a good idea.  

 

You need to spend 5 minutes and run through the detailed maps for the 12Z ECMWF run.    You spend too much time focused on the GFS.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

 

I'm just saying it takes a pretty special setup to deliver the kind of warmth you're talking about.  The 850s aren't even all that warm for much of the run.  Then you have the fact you stated it basically won't rain all week.  I just can't see the kind of warmth and degree of dryness you are talking about verifying.

[snow_wizard]

Here is a pic of the Little Deshutes River in Central Oregon. 

 

 

I do hope this isn't another case of the coldest weather of the entire season happening before winter even gets here.  I think we will get one more stab at something good before the wheels fall off sometime in January or very early Feb.

[Deweydog]

Sounds like everyone needs to get together and binge watch Ice Road Truckers.

[crf450ish]

Can someone provide the links to all these weather models? I would like to start viewing and analyzing them myself. I just spent an hour trying to navigate my way through NOAA website and can't find them...

[TT-SEA]

I'm just saying it takes a pretty special setup to deliver the kind of warmth you're talking about.  The 850s aren't even all that warm for much of the run.  Then you have the fact you stated it basically won't rain all week.  I just can't see the kind of warmth and degree of dryness you are talking about verifying.

 

 

I did NOT say it will be dry all week.   I said the afternoons are basically dry for the next week.   Rain comes through at night per the ECMWF.    It will rain this week.   Of course.

 

And it does specifically show highs around 60 in Seattle on Thursday and into the 60s from PDX southward.    That is what it shows.   Sorry.    I am not saying it will be close to 60... the ECMWF is saying it.    Got it??    

[Deweydog]

I do hope this isn't another case of the coldest weather of the entire season happening before winter even gets here. I think we will get one more stab at something good before the wheels fall off sometime in January or very early Feb.

You just made Jesse's list.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yes, I suppose this could be our coldest weather of the season. In fact I think at least for overnight lows it is likely. There is a good chance Salem will not fall below 20 and Eugene will not get below 17 again this winter. On the other hand there are a lot of winters on record where neither station, other stations in the area have not gotten as cold as they have so far this year. So no matter what it could be worse, it could be last winter...

[snow_wizard]

I did NOT say will not rain all week.   I said the afternoons are basically dry for the next week.   Rain comes through at night per the ECMWF.    It will rain this week.   Of course.

 

And it does specifically show highs around 60 in Seattle on Thursday and into the 60s from PDX southward.    That is what it shows.   Sorry.    I am not saying it will be close to 60... the ECMWF is saying it.    Got it??    

 

I guess I misread your original post.  It looked you said multiple days would be in the 60s and or a taste of spring.

[TT-SEA]

I guess I misread your original post.  It looked you said multiple days would be in the 60s and or a taste of spring.

 

 

You half read.   

 

I said ONE really warm day.   And there seems to be dry breaks nicely timed in the afternoons.

[snow_wizard]

Yes, I suppose this could be our coldest weather of the season. In fact I think at least for overnight lows it is likely. There is a good chance Salem will not fall below 20 and Eugene will not get below 17 again this winter. On the other hand there are a lot of winters on record where neither station, other stations in the area have not gotten as cold as they have so far this year. So no matter what it could be worse, it could be last winter...

 

We'll see.  We got cold in Nov 2006 and then went on to have better in January.  That was a pretty awesome El Nino winter.

[HighlandExperience]

Sounds like everyone needs to get together and binge watch Ice Road Truckers.

Winter might return March 1st

[Phil]

I did NOT say it will be dry all week. I said the afternoons are basically dry for the next week. Rain comes through at night per the ECMWF. It will rain this week. Of course.

 

And it does specifically show highs around 60 in Seattle on Thursday and into the 60s from PDX southward. That is what it shows. Sorry. I am not saying it will be close to 60... the ECMWF is saying it. Got it??

What are you debating over, exactly? The GFS and ECMWF solutions look relatively similar to me. Both are seasonally mild and zonal, with the GFS running a bit wetter/cooler but not substantially so.

[snow_wizard]

Quite impressive to see nearly every station on both sides of the Cascades running considerably colder than yesterday.  Nice cold snap no matter how you slice it.

[Jesse]

You just made Jesse's list.

 

Aside from the fact that I entertained the same possibility last night and actually had Jim call ME out on it.

 

Looks like winter will end right on schedule, at the beginning of meteorological winter on Tuesday.

 

The middle to latter part of next week looks kind of mild and blah.

 

Pay attention Matt. You have been slipping lately.

[Jesse]

Yes, I suppose this could be our coldest weather of the season. In fact I think at least for overnight lows it is likely. There is a good chance Salem will not fall below 20 and Eugene will not get below 17 again this winter. On the other hand there are a lot of winters on record where neither station, other stations in the area have not gotten as cold as they have so far this year. So no matter what it could be worse, it could be last winter...

 

Lots of places got just about as cold in mid-November, late November and right around New Years last winter.

 

PDX had a record low or two the first week of December last year!

 

We still have big shoes to fill to catch up to 2014-15.

[GHweatherChris]

We have had more frost accumulation already this year then total snow last winter.

[TT-SEA]

What are you debating over, exactly? The GFS and ECMWF solutions look relatively similar to me. Both are seasonally mild and zonal, with the GFS running a bit wetter/cooler but not substantially so.

 

Just discussing the details of the ECMWF.    Ran through the next 180 hours and its interesting that each afternoon is basically dry and Thursday has the potential to be quite warm.  Nothing more than that.   Seems that was interpreted as a scorching hot and totally dry week ahead!  

[Jesse]

Right now I really see nothing separating this December from last December on the models. Last year the first ten days were a complete torch at the surface and this year looks the same.

[Jesse]

We have had more frost accumulation already this year then total snow last winter.

Last year it got pretty cold in mid-November, about as cold as now. Than it snowed in late November and colded again!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now I really see nothing separating this December from last December on the models. Last year the first ten days were a complete torch at the surface and this year looks the same.

 

Right now I really see nothing separating this December from last December on the models. Last year the first ten days were a complete torch at the surface and this year looks the same.

 

I thought PDX was setting record lows. 

[Jesse]

I thought PDX was setting record lows.

The first few days, then the torch set in. Might come in a little earlier this year. We are a few days ahead and not quite as cold!

[Jesse]

Winter 2014-15: Three cold air intrusions.

 

Winter 2015-16: One so far.

 

I hope this winter can be as good as 2014-15.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last year it got pretty cold in mid-November, about as cold as now. Than it snowed in late November and colded again!

 

There were the two "cool" snaps last year in November. This has produced much more impressive lows in the Willamette Valley. East side it is fairly similar to last year. The duration has been a bit longer with this one cool snap this year.