November 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

For some reason on my phone I can't go back to previous pages it takes me to the first page of the thread. Anyways, Phil I can't quote you so I'll just ask.

 

You said the cold air entrenched up north is free to flow to the mid latitudes once the PV is broken. Do you have any idea when that may happen and potential areas it's likely to go?

Well, the PV doesn't need to be obliterated to promote wave amplification/blocking (and the polar jet intrusions that coincide). It just needs to be weakened, and this can be achieved with a typical top-down wave-1 response to bombardment..we don't need a wave-2 (split) to do the trick.

 

I suspect we'll need to wait until early/mid January for this to occur, perhaps a bit later. As for where the cold will go, that depends on a number of factors including timing and the specific nature of the wave bombardment and full-scale PV response.

 

For you guys, the sooner this monster is slain, the better.

[Jesse]

Most stations in the metro area and Willamette Valley hit 50 today.

[Jesse]

15/-8 in Burns today.

 

25/1 in Redmond.

[MossMan]

Topped out at 40 up here, currently 34 degrees.

[DareDuck]

Well, the PV doesn't need to be obliterated to promote wave amplification/blocking (and the polar jet intrusions that coincide). It just needs to be weakened, and this can be achieved with a typical top-down wave-1 response to bombardment..we don't need a wave-2 (split) to do the trick.

 

I suspect we'll need to wait until early/mid January for this to occur, perhaps a bit later. As for where the cold will go, that depends on a number of factors including timing and the specific nature of the wave bombardment and full-scale PV response.

 

For you guys, the sooner this monster is slain, the better.

Thanks for the answer. Just one more question, what type of pattern should we be looking for for that top down wave-1 response to occur?

[snow_wizard]

Most stations in the metro area and Willamette Valley hit 50 today.

 

The coming days will be much colder though.  I'm pretty confident of that.

[snow_wizard]

I ended up with 44-24 today.  Solidly cold for this time of year.  I'm not sure what caused places west of I-5 to get so much warmer today.

[Tyler Mode]

50 at my house today.  Surprised at how warm.  There was just enough mixing to stir things up.

[Deweydog]

One of the nicest turkey days I can remember.

[Deweydog]

I ended up with 44-24 today. Solidly cold for this time of year. I'm not sure what caused places west of I-5 to get so much warmer today.

Really?

[Jesse]

One of the nicest turkey days I can remember.

We had almost identical weather Thanksgiving 2013.

[crf450ish]

The cold subsurface water under the Nino regions is making its move.  It appears this Nino could collapse very suddenly when it does like it did in 1998.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq2_anm_155m.gif

What would it mean for the northern hemisphere if this nino collapsed? I remember that winter was pretty bad. I lived in graham, wa and there was snow on the ground for 21 days. It was epic. 

[Deweydog]

We had almost identical weather Thanksgiving 2013.

 

It was raining at Disneyland that day. We felt it.

[Deweydog]

Anyone else on their way to go shopping?

[FroYoBro]

Anyone else on their way to go shopping?

That would be depressing. 

[Deweydog]

The ladies just left. Unreal.

[Jesse]

Anyone else on their way to go shopping?

Nah, I have a soul.

[MossMan]

Anyone else on their way to go shopping?

No...way...in...hell. Watching Green Bay loosing, way better!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On my way to the greatest city in the Northwest.

[snow_wizard]

Nah, I have a soul.

 

I agree with this.  the idea of stores opening on Thanksgiving is just plain wrong.  For the record I also hate Black Friday.  It has gotten to where Black Friday happens in the summer at various places and extends from early November to early December at many others.  I wish the term had never been invented.

 

In actuality it is what they called that fateful day in 1929.

[snow_wizard]

What would it mean for the northern hemisphere if this nino collapsed? I remember that winter was pretty bad. I lived in graham, wa and there was snow on the ground for 21 days. It was epic. 

 

No telling how it would play out.  All I know is the winter after a transition from a major Nino to a Nina usually features a good Arctic blast.  The last four examples would be the winters of 1988-89, 1995-96, 1997-98, and 2010-11.  I guess 2007-08 would be in there also and that one never did have a blast, but the chances are still good in such a case.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-7 already at BNO

[Deweydog]

Nah, I have a soul.

Sorry to burst your judgmental bubble but most employees love it. Make a ton of money on double time.

[Deweydog]

I agree with this. the idea of stores opening on Thanksgiving is just plain wrong. For the record I also hate Black Friday. It has gotten to where Black Friday happens in the summer at various places and extends from early November to early December at many others. I wish the term had never been invented.

 

In actuality it is what they called that fateful day in 1929.

All Fridays matter.

[Jesse]

So those that do go shopping are soulless?

On Thanksgiving night? Yes.

[stuffradio]

On Thanksgiving night? Yes.

It's not Thanksgiving night. I guess I have no soul if I went shopping.

[stuffradio]

No telling how it would play out.  All I know is the winter after a transition from a major Nino to a Nina usually features a good Arctic blast.  The last four examples would be the winters of 1988-89, 1995-96, 1997-98, and 2010-11.  I guess 2007-08 would be in there also and that one never did have a blast, but the chances are still good in such a case.

2008-2008 was a very decent winter here though for snow. 2006-2009 (excluding the winter of 2009) all had very nice snow in it. We got spoiled then.

[Jesse]

Sorry to burst your judgmental bubble but most employees love it. Make a s**t ton of money on double time.

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

[FroYoBro]

Pdx is at 32. Pendleton is at 12 already. 

[Deweydog]

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

Warm anomalies mainly.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS and Canadian are wetter again next week.   

 

GFS MOS also shows the inversion taking hold with high temps dropping through the weekend.    Only 40 at SEA on Saturday.   It has been showing this for the last few days.

[westiztehbest]

No telling how it would play out.  All I know is the winter after a transition from a major Nino to a Nina usually features a good Arctic blast.  The last four examples would be the winters of 1988-89, 1995-96, 1997-98, and 2010-11.  I guess 2007-08 would be in there also and that one never did have a blast, but the chances are still good in such a case.

 

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

 

 

 

 

Wowzers!

[Jesse]

Warm anomalies mainly.

Knew it!!

[Deweydog]

Knew it!!

Oh wowzers!!

 

You're a goddamn genius Gump!!

 

Ironically, as you sit on your holiday morality high horse you failed to acknowledge your cold fix last night caused dozens of WADOT employees to have to be called in this morning. Cold weather destroys holiday joy.

[snow_wizard]

Several consecutive GFS runs have shown the NW in a reasonably cool and active pattern later in the run.  Looks like some snow in the mountains and windstorm possibilities.  No sign of the dreaded pattern yet.

[Jesse]

Oh wowzers!!

 

You're a goddamn genius Gump!!

 

Ironically, as you sit on your holiday morality high horse you failed to acknowledge your cold fix last night caused dozens of WADOT employees to have to be called in this morning. Cold weather destroys holiday joy.

So do false analogies!

[bainbridgekid]

00Z GFS and Canadian are wetter again next week.

 

GFS MOS also shows the inversion taking hold with high temps dropping through the weekend. Only 40 at SEA on Saturday. It has been showing this for the last few days.

Makes sense that would happen.

 

Usually takes a few days for inversions to really get going as the winds die down and things stagnate.

[Deweydog]

So do false analogies!

Whatever helps you sleep at night. Blood on your hands...

[Jesse]

The GFS and its ensembles have been pretty consistently seasonable and active looking in the mid-long range for several runs now.